2017 NFL Season

[epilogue]

I'm just really looking for all the edges to give Jacksonville. I want them to win so fucking badly.

[MattA75]

If "the Patriots are pissed off about the ESPN article" stories are correct, they might win by 30...I like Mariota but I dunno if that offense has enough to go into New England and win.

Mike Tomlin is an awful coach who I can very easily see blowing a home playoff game against Blake Bortles.

Up until he is handed the Super Bowl trophy, I cannot take Case Keenum (and by extension, the Vikings) seriously.

Watching a "the Falcons are motivated to correct last year's failure" narrative take hold only to see them choke in epic fashion again at some point could be pretty enjoyable

[numbers]

If "the Patriots are pissed off about the ESPN article" stories are correct, they might win by 30...I like Mariota but I dunno if that offense has enough to go into New England and win.

Mike Tomlin is an awful coach who I can very easily see blowing a home playoff game against Blake Bortles.

Up until he is handed the Super Bowl trophy, I cannot take Case Keenum (and by extension, the Vikings) seriously.

Watching a "the Falcons are motivated to correct last year's failure" narrative take hold only to see them choke in epic fashion again at some point could be pretty enjoyable

I want to rip their hearts out again so bad.

[Simple Torture]

Whenever it feels like a Patriots blowout, it usually ends up being a 24-17ish game where the Pats play like crap but are never really in danger of losing.

Last 5 times the Patriots have been favored by more than a TD in the playoffs:

2017 - Pats over Texans, 34-16 (-16, covered)
2013 - Pats over Texans, 41-29 (-9.5, covered)
2013 - Ravens over Pats, 28-13 (-7.5, lost outright)
2012 - Patriots over Broncos, 45-10 (-13.5, covered)
2011 - Jets over Pats, 28-21 (-9.5, lost outright)

The scores don't always tell the whole story, as that game last year vs. Houston was close most of the way. But they lose more times then you'd expect when they're heavy favorites (also see: Super Bowl XLII).

[Simple Torture]

Whenever it feels like a Patriots blowout, it usually ends up being a 24-17ish game where the Pats play like crap but are never really in danger of losing.

Last 5 times the Patriots have been favored by more than a TD in the playoffs:

2017 - Pats over Texans, 34-16 (-16, covered)
2013 - Pats over Texans, 41-29 (-9.5, covered)
2013 - Ravens over Pats, 28-13 (-7.5, lost outright)
2012 - Patriots over Broncos, 45-10 (-13.5, covered)
2011 - Jets over Pats, 28-21 (-9.5, lost outright)

The scores don't always tell the whole story, as that game last year vs. Houston was close most of the way. But they lose more times then you'd expect when they're heavy favorites (also see: Super Bowl XLII).

I ran the numbers a bit further:

2017 - Pats over Texans, 34-16 (-16, covered)
2013 - Pats over Texans, 41-29 (-9.5, covered)
2013 - Ravens over Pats, 28-13 (-7.5, lost outright)
2012 - Patriots over Broncos, 45-10 (-13.5, covered)
2011 - Jets over Pats, 28-21 (-9.5, lost outright)
2008 - Pats over Jax, 31-20 (-13.5, failed to cover)
2008 - Pats over SD, 21-12 (-14, failed to cover)
2008 - Giants over Pats, 17-14 (-12.5, lost outright)
2007 - Pats over Jets, 37-16 (-9, cover)
2006 - Pats over Jax, 28-3 (-8, cover)

So in games in which the Pats are more than a touchdown favorite in the BB era (-7.5 or more), their record against the spread is 5-5 (.500)--that's where that feeling of uneasiness comes from, I think. Their overall record in those games is 7-3 (.700).

However, that's pretty damn close to their records in all playoff games in the BB era:

ATS: 17-16-1 (.515)

Overall: 25-9 (.735)

So ::shurg::

[washing machine]

I forgot the Texans were even in the playoffs last year.

[numbers]

I forgot the Texans were even in the playoffs last year.

So did the Texans.

[Monkey_Driven]

I don't think I've ever been more underwhelmed by one conference's divisional round matchups (AFC).

[epilogue]

Official picks:

Patriots over Titans
Steelers over Jaguars
Falcons over Eagles
Saints over Vikings

However, I'll be actively rooting for the all of the teams I'm not picking. If I had my way, the Titans, Jags, Eagles and Vikings would ALL advance.

[Simple Torture]

PHI beats ATL - I'm thinking this has the same stink on it as the TEN/KC game last week, where everyone knew the result. I'm taking a flyer on it just in case, even though I think ATL is peaking at the right time and has a decent shot at the SB.

NWE beats TEN - Could use the same logic above, but I really don't see it happening. PHI has talent up and down their roster and people may be giving Wentz too much credit for their success, but TEN just doesn't have what it takes to stop NWE. If they get a couple of early turnovers and keep the ball out of NWE's hands, and maybe Brady yells at McDaniels on the sidelines, something might be cooking...otherwise...

PIT beats JAX - The opposite of the PHI/ATL game--I think lots of people are trying to talk themselves into JAX, but their offense just looked awful last week. They would realistically have to hold PIT to under 15 points to have a shot, I think.

NO over MIN - Sorry, everybody; I feel like MIN is gaining a lot of bandwagoners, and they seem like a fun team and Keenum's a nice story, but NO looked very good last week.

And if I were betting:
PHI +3
TEN +13.5 (as I mentioned above, Pats are only 5-5 against the spread in playoff games where they're favored by more than a TD)
PIT -7.5
NO +3.5

[Simple Torture]

SB is a pick 'em right now, btw. I think if it's anybody but NWE in the AFC, NFC is a favorite by like 4.5

[epilogue]

The Super Bowl will be the Pats vs whomever wins the Saints/Vikings game.

[Kaius]

The best wr of all-time should get a ring some time. Rooting for the Steelers over the Pats (unless Philly somehow makes it in, then I'll root for them).

[Simple Torture]

The Super Bowl will be the Pats vs whomever wins the Saints/Vikings game.

Even though I picked the Falcons to lose this weekend, if they beat PHI, I would probably pick them over the winner of NO/MIN.

[Strat]

I think many are actually underestimating how good the Vikings defense is.

It will be very very difficult for the Saints offense to do their thing at the vikings home.

Also - No bandwagon here. MN born and raised!

The only reason im worried is because #mnsports

[epilogue]

I want the Vikings to win so badly.

[lennytheweedwhacker]

I want the Vikings to win so badly.

i dunno who i'm pulling for in this one...i just hope it's a good game and nobody gets hurt amen

[MadTIGERmaN]

I think many are actually underestimating how good the Vikings defense is.

It will be very very difficult for the Saints offense to do their thing at the vikings home.

Also - No bandwagon here. MN born and raised!

The only reason im worried is because #mnsports

It should be just as hard for Atlanta to do their thing in Philly. Philly went 7-0 at home (not counting week 17). And the Philly fans should be amped up to 11 with all the Atlanta is favored crap going on. Its not the easiest place for a visiting team to play let alone a dome team.

[PHATJ]

Patriots over Titans
Steelers over Jaguars
Falcons over Eagles
Vikings over Saints


Please, football gods, let the Vikes win this game.

[Mecca]

https://zubaz.com/estore/bottoms/department/pants

They’re still available!

You know Mecca owns a pair.

well duh