2018 Midterms

[McParadigm]

Every trump press conference finds a new and special way to make me say that was a weird press conference.

That was a weird press conference.

[Simple Torture]

Yeah, and I should add that the other thing that still bothers me about 538 (and we have covered this ad nauseam), is how their 2016 data showed Hillary with a win by a fair margin (less than other popular outlets, yes, I know). I'm convinced the polls directly contributed to voter apathy in that race, and had people opened their fucking EYEBALLS in their COMMUNITIES, rather than relying on the polls, perhaps they would have gotten more people out on election day. The numbers created a false sense of security for many, and while 538 was certainly more conservative than all the other outlets, they were wrong all the same.

You're gonna make 4/5's head explode.

Quite possibly.

I agree completely about other outlets, but not 538 in this case. Some had Hillary at >99% which was just moronic and should have been disregarded ex ante.

538 ended with her at 71%, him at 29%. That's not nothing. A couple weeks before the election it had her down to about 55% but then polling turned in her favor up until the Comey stuff 4 days before the election which wasn't fully baked into the polling by election day. Even still, 538's model gave Trump the same chance as a .290 hitter coming to bat has of a getting a hit. And their model was very clear that if polls were off in Pennsylvania (in Trump's favor) that it would quite likely mean that they were similarly off throughout the rust belt and that their models were quite possibly underselling Trump's true chance of victory. Again, their output can only be based on the inputs they receive through polling.

And yeah, it's probably true that if people could have voted again on Wednesday realizing that Trump could actually win that Hillary probably would have won. But it's not 538's fault people don't understand percentages. I suspect that's why they switched to 1-in-4 type of stuff for this cycle.

I'd argue that people who read 538 should have been less confident in a Clinton victory and more inspired to go vote for her (if that was their preferred outcome) than if you looked only at the polls or read most other predictive models.

You and I discussed this like two months ago, and I pulled the articles from Oct/Nov 2016 where 538 laid out the permutation of the model that had trump winning 29% percent of the time: http://forums.theskyiscrape.com/viewtop ... 2#p1226532

[epilogue]

[McParadigm]

Every trump press conference finds a new and special way to make me say that was a weird press conference.

That was a weird press conference.

[doug rr]

Every trump press conference finds a new and special way to make me say that was a weird press conference.

That was a weird press conference.

i want to start drinking at 9am watching this..his answer just now to releasing his tax returns is so bizarre

[Simple Torture]

It's just so unfair that I am at work.

[doug rr]

wow

[doug rr]

just wow

[Anders]

Every trump press conference finds a new and special way to make me say that was a weird press conference.

That was a weird press conference.

Brilliant.

[McParadigm]

[doug rr]

[McParadigm]

John Kelly quietly contemplates that his own initials are JK.

[McParadigm]

Just wow

[---]

I just don't know how anyone can build any type of reliable model right now.

First we'd have to agree on what we were predicting and then define "reliable." Are we talking point-estimates (that is, did the model predict the right outcome of an individual election?)? Are we talking estimates of some kind of aggregate or range or distribution? No shortage of things to try and predict, and no shortage of criteria by which they can be judged.

Our country is so "in flux." Our suburbs are changing (dramatically in some cases), demographics are exploding, then there are identity shifts going on in both parties. Add to that unreliable polling and I just don't see why anyone would put much stock in a model. People just aren't voting the way "they should."

Like I said, just give me a list of the latest polling numbers and I'll filter that through what I see on the ground.

I spoke about Sinema losing weeks ago and someone piped up that she was solid in polls. That's not what I saw with my eyes. I know that's unscientific, but I drive through Tempe/ASU on my way to work and there are a lot of Red Team stickers on cars. I knew Sinema was in trouble.

I know first-hand that analytically-inclined candidates access exactly that kind of data and use it in making decisions for targeting potential voters. I don't know enough about Silver's methodologies to know whether he incorporates it.

[Strat]

I only caught a bit but i gathered that if the Dem's dare investigate trump then its world war 3?

[---]

The doks just appreciates a really solid excel spreadsheet.

Excel? Pffft.

What's your go to program for creating a linear regression analysis?

Depending on the job at hand, Python usually scratches me where I itch.

[Strat]

The doks just appreciates a really solid excel spreadsheet.

Excel? Pffft.

What's your go to program for creating a linear regression analysis?

Depending on the job at hand, Python usually scratches me where I itch.

What are the benefits over utilizing excel ?

[bune]

Every trump press conference finds a new and special way to make me say that was a weird press conference.

That was a weird press conference.

[McParadigm]

“That was Obama’s regime.”

[---]

The doks just appreciates a really solid excel spreadsheet.

Excel? Pffft.

What's your go to program for creating a linear regression analysis?

Depending on the job at hand, Python usually scratches me where I itch.

What are the benefits over utilizing excel ?

Sophistication and range of the quantitative tools available, and the ability to integrate code seamlessly into enterprise applications and platforms.