Election 2020

[BurtReynolds]

Did we manage to find a candidate that absolutely no one seems to like in Howard Schultz?

yeah I dont know what world that guy is living in.

[McParadigm]

2000:
28% of Americans aged 18-30 say they identify as Republican or conservative
26% say they are Democrats, or liberal

2010:
29% of Americans 18-30 identify as Republican
40% say they are Democrats

2019:
30% identify as a Republican
59% identify as a Democrat

[Mickey]

I put no faith in demographics, and I'm suspicious of anyone who does

[Green Habit]

Did we manage to find a candidate that absolutely no one seems to like in Howard Schultz?

I certainly don't hate him, and I think I could find enough to like about him. But one can be likeable and also run a completely idiotic third party campaign that's unwilling to accept how the rules of the American system of government dramatically force voting into a two party system.

[Mickey]

Did we manage to find a candidate that absolutely no one seems to like in Howard Schultz?

I certainly don't hate him, and I think I could find enough to like about him. But one can be likeable and also run a completely idiotic third party campaign that's unwilling to accept how the rules of the American system of government dramatically force voting into a two party system.

Why don't you hate the man who thinks "billionaire" is a slur? What has gone wrong in your life that has led you to this point?

[Green Habit]

Or, in blunter terms:

[McParadigm]

I put no faith in demographics, and I'm suspicious of anyone who does

oh no

[Simple Torture]

2000:
28% of Americans aged 18-30 say they identify as Republican or conservative
26% say they are Democrats, or liberal

2010:
29% of Americans 18-30 identify as Republican
40% say they are Democrats

2019:
30% identify as a Republican
59% identify as a Democrat

I did a quick Google to try to find turnout rates for those age ranges vis-a-vis party affiliation, which I think would be helpful, too, but came up empty. Any ideas?

[Mickey]

I put no faith in demographics, and I'm suspicious of anyone who does

oh no

These categories shift and are shiftable. If the Republicans breed themselves out the Democrats will occupy the center-right neoliberal position the GOP vacated and towards which the Dems have been drifting since at least Carter, flanked by a true right-wing of frothing white nationalists and an emergent social democrat party. Which would be an improvement but does not mean the demographic ends of conservativism.

[Green Habit]

It's probably implausible to suggest that Millennials will always vote that left wing in the future, but they may very well shift the overall narrative to the left when they become even more dominant among voters. The GI Generation, who the Millennials are very likely to be historically similar to, did the same to the middle of the 20th century.

[Mickey]

It's probably implausible to suggest that Millennials will always vote that left wing in the future, but they may very well shift the overall narrative to the left when they become even more dominant among voters. The GI Generation, who the Millennials are very likely to be historically similar to, did the same to the middle of the 20th century.

I don't disagree with this at all.

[McParadigm]

2000:
28% of Americans aged 18-30 say they identify as Republican or conservative
26% say they are Democrats, or liberal

2010:
29% of Americans 18-30 identify as Republican
40% say they are Democrats

2019:
30% identify as a Republican
59% identify as a Democrat

I did a quick Google to try to find turnout rates for those age ranges vis-a-vis party affiliation, which I think would be helpful, too, but came up empty. Any ideas?

Turnout among young people? It’s always low.

Where this becomes a problem for Republicans (I actually took these numbers from a podcast conversation between two Republican strategists) is that these changes in affiliation are built on bigger societal demographic shifts that are likely to continue to spin ever more against them.

Each of these groups of young people is measurably less white, less religious, and more tolerant than the last. We’ve seen our last new voting group come of age that is more than 50% white, and that puts Republicans in a very bad spot. The party is trapped between the language of white grievance, which sustains them and brings out old voters, and the need to rebrand in a way that invites others in. Right now, the grievance team is running totally unrestrained.

[BurtReynolds]

Why aren't you happier?

[Green Habit]

Each of these groups of young people is measurably less white, less religious, and more tolerant than the last. We’ve seen our last new voting group come of age that is more than 50% white, and that puts Republicans in a very bad spot. The party is trapped between the language of white grievance, which sustains them and brings out old voters, and the need to rebrand in a way that invites others in. Right now, the grievance team is running totally unrestrained.

I'd be a little careful with this.

A century ago, people from southern and eastern Europe were not considered "white". It's entirely plausible that some group not considered "white" now will be in the future. Latinos are the likeliest group for this to happen with. And if there's massive immigration from another region (say, Asia or Africa), we can't count out the possibility that those who are so tolerant of those unlike them now will remain so to such a future group. Religion also tends to cycle too--see the four Great Awakenings this country's had in history.

[BurtReynolds]

[Mickey]

Each of these groups of young people is measurably less white, less religious, and more tolerant than the last. We’ve seen our last new voting group come of age that is more than 50% white, and that puts Republicans in a very bad spot. The party is trapped between the language of white grievance, which sustains them and brings out old voters, and the need to rebrand in a way that invites others in. Right now, the grievance team is running totally unrestrained.

I'd be a little careful with this.

A century ago, people from southern and eastern Europe were not considered "white". It's entirely plausible that some group not considered "white" now will be in the future. Latinos are the likeliest group for this to happen with. And if there's massive immigration from another region (say, Asia or Africa), we can't count out the possibility that those who are so tolerant of those unlike them now will remain so to such a future group. Religion also tends to cycle too--see the four Great Awakenings this country's had in history.

Don't think I could have said it better myself--the already-shifting category of whiteness, which will absolutely forestall if not outright prevent the whole threat of whites in the minority (though I'd say it's already happening with white latinos (eg Marco Rubio, among many others) and is very soon to happen with lighter-skinned Asians)--is a test case for how limited demographic trends can be when indexed to socially constructed categories.

[bune]

[Superblood Wolfmoon]

So it's come out that Bernie is officially a member of the millionaire's club.

I wrote a best-selling book. If you write a best-selling book, you can be a millionaire, too.

[Green Habit]

So it's come out that Bernie is officially a member of the millionaire's club.

I wrote a best-selling book. If you write a best-selling book, you can be a millionaire, too.

Yawn. This should not be a big deal at all.

And this is a good sign that the left needs to slow their roll on trying to establish a norm of making politicians make their tax returns public. They're going to end up disappointed.

[Norah]

So it's come out that Bernie is officially a member of the millionaire's club.

I wrote a best-selling book. If you write a best-selling book, you can be a millionaire, too.

Yawn. This should not be a big deal at all.

And this is a good sign that the left needs to slow their roll on trying to establish a norm of making politicians make their tax returns public. They're going to end up disappointed.

Wasn't that norm established through 40 years of precedent?