The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

[McParadigm]

No wonder they have been fighting any attempt to investigate the decision making on this.

The story of how these documents came out is wild. This guy died, and his estranged daughter didn't find out until she Googled his name, then her mom gave her all of his old computer stuff, and she assumed these documents had already been made available in various lawsuits. When she found out they weren't, she worked to get them released.

I will buy your book

[McParadigm]

[verb_to_trust]

Man, the latest episode of ChopperTalk was something else.

[Peeps]

i have to believe pelosi and others are holding off on the impeachment process seeing if they can flip the senate and get the necessary votes without relying on some R's flipping

[Simple Torture]

i have to believe pelosi and others are holding off on the impeachment process seeing if they can flip the senate and get the necessary votes without relying on some R's flipping

I can think of a lot of scenarios, and crazy things can happen, but I don't think there's even a one-in-a-trillion chance that the Democrats pick up 22 Senate seats in 2020.

[bune]

Ms. Hofeller said her decision to open her father’s files to his opponents was a bid for transparency, devoid of personal or political animus. Although she believed he was undermining American democracy, she said, their estrangement stemmed not from partisan differences, but a family dispute that ended up in court. Ms. Hofeller described herself as a political progressive who despises Republican partisanship, but also has scant respect for Democrats.

Her father, she said, was a brilliant cartographer who was deeply committed to traditional conservative principles like free will and limited government. As a child, she said, she was schooled in those same principles, but every successive gerrymandered map he created only solidified her conviction that he had abandoned them in a quest to entrench his party in permanent control.

“He had me with the idea that we are made to be free,” she said. “And then he lost me.”

[Peeps]

i have to believe pelosi and others are holding off on the impeachment process seeing if they can flip the senate and get the necessary votes without relying on some R's flipping

I can think of a lot of scenarios, and crazy things can happen, but I don't think there's even a one-in-a-trillion chance that the Democrats pick up 22 Senate seats in 2020.

i thought i saw a graphic that only 17 were needed. still daunting but one can dare to dream

[Simple Torture]

i have to believe pelosi and others are holding off on the impeachment process seeing if they can flip the senate and get the necessary votes without relying on some R's flipping

I can think of a lot of scenarios, and crazy things can happen, but I don't think there's even a one-in-a-trillion chance that the Democrats pick up 22 Senate seats in 2020.

i thought i saw a graphic that only 17 were needed. still daunting but one can dare to dream

My math was a little off--with the 2 independents who caucus with the Dems, they need to pick up 20 to get to 67 votes.

[Green Habit]

i have to believe pelosi and others are holding off on the impeachment process seeing if they can flip the senate and get the necessary votes without relying on some R's flipping

I can think of a lot of scenarios, and crazy things can happen, but I don't think there's even a one-in-a-trillion chance that the Democrats pick up 22 Senate seats in 2020.

This also presupposes that Trump gets reelected, thus necessitating the impeachment. That likely makes the odds even longer.

[epilogue]

Yeah, vote the fucker out. That's really the best play here.

[McParadigm]

Should probably go in the news source thread, since this is a direct consequence of the insular and propagandist conservative news bubble, but...sigh....

[Simple Torture]

i have to believe pelosi and others are holding off on the impeachment process seeing if they can flip the senate and get the necessary votes without relying on some R's flipping

I can think of a lot of scenarios, and crazy things can happen, but I don't think there's even a one-in-a-trillion chance that the Democrats pick up 22 Senate seats in 2020.

This also presupposes that Trump gets reelected, thus necessitating the impeachment. That likely makes the odds even longer.

Even if Trump loses re-election (which some of the board's greatest prognosticators are not keen on), the Senate map in 2020 is extremely tough. Which of these red states could the Democrats potentially flip? I have a feeling a lot of money and media are going to get funnelled into Maine, but that's just one small step. CO and AZ (which Cook rate as toss-ups) could both be had, but there's just as good a chance (probably better) that Alabama goes back to a Republican. I don't mean to be a downer, but it sure seems like 51-49 is the best Dems can hope for, even if President Yang is sworn in in 2021.

[Green Habit]

If the Democrats win the presidency, the coattails from that could cause a surprise or two in the Senate. Certainly no guarantee, but Democrats shouldn't get defeatist about it.

[PHATJ]

The economy is thriving. Unemployment rates are very low. Trumps support is growing in Minority communities. There’s not one real threat amongst the 20 zillion Dem pres candidates. Trump will win re-election, probably by a wide margin.

[PHATJ]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/18/stock-m ... EN_t_HTik4

[Simple Torture]

Trumps support is growing in Minority communities.

Link?

[PHATJ]

Trumps support is growing in Minority communities.

Link?

"Today's @realDonaldTrump approval ratings among black voters: 36%," Rasmussen said in a tweet. "This day last year: 19%."

That is a staggeringly high number for a man who only won 8 percent of the African-American vote in 2016.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 013212002/

[McParadigm]

Rasmussen is, of course best known for being the most inaccurate of all the national pollsters in 2018. They consistently showed Republicans winning the popular vote by a little over one percent (they lost it by 8.6%), and getting a third of the black vote (they got less than 10%).

[verb_to_trust]

Yeah, I'm going to go ahead and trust my eyes with regards to that.

[Simple Torture]

It's important to note that Rasmussen has a pro-Trump lean, consistently polling 6-8 percentage points above the national average when it comes to his approval rating (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... id=rrpromo). This Post report from last August (when the poll you shared was published) compares it to others around the same time, and it does seem like an extreme outlier: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/mon ... e2b2a1c017

EDIT: Damnit, McP

Rasmussen is, of course best known for being the most inaccurate of all the national pollsters in 2018. They consistently showed Republicans winning the popular vote by a little over one percent (they lost it by 8.6%), and getting a third of the black vote (they got less than 10%).

(so you don't get bottom-paged)