Election 2020

[verb_to_trust]

I can't take Bernie seriously.

Explain yourself

He just reminds me too much of two uncles I know.

God damnit MD. Be better

[BurtReynolds]

The propagandists are out in force today to try and "correct" people's opinions.

"It's those evil Russians!"

[Monkey_Driven]

I can't take Bernie seriously.

Explain yourself

He just reminds me too much of two uncles I know.

God damnit MD. Be better

I know...

[washing machine]

Does anyone else on the board have a sick feeling that the partisan divide has only gotten worse since 2016, paving the way for electing Trump again...no matter who the dems nominate?

[McParadigm]

I mean, if 2018 hadn’t happened or if even one election cycle indicator had good news for him, maybe?

[McParadigm]

Or if Republicans with access to gold standard internal party polling data weren’t already retiring in droves...again?

[washing machine]

I just can't shake the feeling that after 2016, data and conventional wisdom from the wonks is not really that useful when it comes to this guy.

[epilogue]

I'm actually pretty sure Trump will be reelected, yeah. I'm with you Reid. The question is... how do I not kill myself when that happens.

[washing machine]

I'm actually pretty sure Trump will be reelected, yeah. I'm with you Reid. The question is... how do I not kill myself when that happens.

Maybe we just find the joy in our everyday lives and pass it on. Work hard to improve the deficiencies we see in our communities. Do what we can, where we can.

[washing machine]

That should apply whether Trump is re-elected or not, obvi.

[McParadigm]

I just can't shake the feeling that after 2016, data and conventional wisdom from the wonks is not really that useful when it comes to this guy.

He campaigned for 36 candidates in 2018, sticking only to super safe R districts that averaged a 7.5 point or better Republican lean. He campaigned so heavily that Republicans complained he was making the election a referendum on himself. A third of the candidates he actively campaigned for lost their elections. In safe Republican districts. None of them outperformed expectations....not one.

I don’t even understand the logic a little. Trump benefitted like mad in 2016 from Clinton’s unpopularity, and polling showed that most undecided voters who banked his way did not believe he would ever do most of the things he or others said he would do. Since that time, his popularity ceiling has not changed, but his strong dislike numbers have skyrocketed. His disapproval polling is 15 points higher today in Michigan than it was in 2016. It’s 13 points higher in Florida. 12 points higher in Nebraska. It’s not gone down *anywhere*. These are people who saw him as the lesser of two evils in 2016, and now actively dislike him.

The people who support him are essentially the same as during the election, but they aren’t even close to enough without winning back those Obama-Trump voters who are rejecting him. The Republican Party sees this...that’s why they had those record retirement numbers in 2018, that’s why they are already on pace to match that again in 2020, and that’s why they are filling judgeships like crazy. That’s also why they’re working so hard to build up moderate Democrat candidates...if we have to lose the White House, please let it be to Joe Biden and not Elizabeth Warren. When else have you seen a political party openly favoring (or even just not attacking) the clear front runner of their opposition’s primary? When’s the last time high minded conservatives sat around going “gee whiz, that fellow is just an all around great candidate; Democrats would be fools not to pick him!”

And keep in mind that Trump’s “will/won’t vote for” polling is WORSE than his approval polling. When the same group is asked both questions, many who mark him favorably also say they won’t vote for him again under any circumstance. Maybe they think he helped the economy and approve of his immigration stance in general, so they give him marks for that, but also see him as exhausting or racist. Or maybe they think the tariffs are a good bargaining tool and are relieved that NK isn’t posturing war so heavily, but are ready for all this hullabaloo and chaos to STFU. Whatever the reason, his favorability doesn’t correlate to his voter motivation/intention numbers. Usually, a sitting president has BETTER “will vote for” numbers than their popularity polling would suggest.

Sorry, but “the rules don’t apply to Donald” just doesn’t hold up to 2018, where he made the entire election about himself and got savaged exactly as badly as the data suggested.

[washing machine]

I sure hope you’re right, McP. We’ll see I guess.

[wease]

I sure hope you’re right, McP. We’ll see I guess.

[McParadigm]

I’m not saying he can’t win. He’s just got some real barriers to overcome.

One example: suburban women. Because of the demographic spread, there’s no good path to a Republican electoral college win without them (unless they plan on winning over several smaller high turnout replacement groups that don’t typically vote R?). You don’t need a majority with this group in order to win, you just need to keep it close. Trump got 49% of the vote with this demo in 2016. They voted Democrat by a margin of two to one in 2018. Polling shows the same for 2020, and suggests that this group worries more over healthcare than the economy and finds his attacks on women and people of color especially off-putting.

So, like, how does he win back nearly one in five members of a group whose biggest dislikes are the very tools he’s using to motivate his base?

[Citizen Dick]

I just can't shake the feeling that after 2016, data and conventional wisdom from the wonks is not really that useful when it comes to this guy.

He campaigned for 36 candidates in 2018, sticking only to super safe R districts that averaged a 7.5 point or better Republican lean. He campaigned so heavily that Republicans complained he was making the election a referendum on himself. A third of the candidates he actively campaigned for lost their elections. In safe Republican districts. None of them outperformed expectations....not one.

I don’t even understand the logic a little. Trump benefitted like mad in 2016 from Clinton’s unpopularity, and polling showed that most undecided voters who banked his way did not believe he would ever do most of the things he or others said he would do. Since that time, his popularity ceiling has not changed, but his strong dislike numbers have skyrocketed. His disapproval polling is 15 points higher today in Michigan than it was in 2016. It’s 13 points higher in Florida. 12 points higher in Nebraska. It’s not gone down *anywhere*. These are people who saw him as the lesser of two evils in 2016, and now actively dislike him.

The people who support him are essentially the same as during the election, but they aren’t even close to enough without winning back those Obama-Trump voters who are rejecting him. The Republican Party sees this...that’s why they had those record retirement numbers in 2018, that’s why they are already on pace to match that again in 2020, and that’s why they are filling judgeships like crazy. That’s also why they’re working so hard to build up moderate Democrat candidates...if we have to lose the White House, please let it be to Joe Biden and not Elizabeth Warren. When else have you seen a political party openly favoring (or even just not attacking) the clear front runner of their opposition’s primary? When’s the last time high minded conservatives sat around going “gee whiz, that fellow is just an all around great candidate; Democrats would be fools not to pick him!”

And keep in mind that Trump’s “will/won’t vote for” polling is WORSE than his approval polling. When the same group is asked both questions, many who mark him favorably also say they won’t vote for him again under any circumstance. Maybe they think he helped the economy and approve of his immigration stance in general, so they give him marks for that, but also see him as exhausting or racist. Or maybe they think the tariffs are a good bargaining tool and are relieved that NK isn’t posturing war so heavily, but are ready for all this hullabaloo and chaos to STFU. Whatever the reason, his favorability doesn’t correlate to his voter motivation/intention numbers. Usually, a sitting president has BETTER “will vote for” numbers than their popularity polling would suggest.

Sorry, but “the rules don’t apply to Donald” just doesn’t hold up to 2018, where he made the entire election about himself and got savaged exactly as badly as the data suggested.

All of this is an insightful, logical and evidence based argument.

Still can't shake the feeling that the rebuttal is simply that Trump is competing against the W̶a̶s̶h̶i̶n̶g̶t̶o̶n̶ ̶G̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶s̶ Democrats.

[washing machine]

I so totally relate to the pointing finger in the bottom right corner.

[McParadigm]

Will Hurd retiring.

[bune]

This means that Beto should gtfo of the race now, right?

[washing machine]

This means that Beto should gtfo of the race now, right?

Beto is nowhere near that district, but yes, he should exit the race.

[Bi_3]

Does anyone else on the board have a sick feeling that the partisan divide has only gotten worse since 2016, paving the way for electing Trump again...no matter who the dems nominate?

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/455 ... ative-tone

Yup. Welcome to the rise of the Progressives; the new Puritans.