Election 2020

[Mickey]

Another example--in August of 2011 Romney spent most of the month in second place behind Rick Perry, but he was still at 16-18% to Perry's 22-24%.

[Simple Torture]

Can any of the board pollsters tell me what Bill Clinton, Obama, and Trump were polling at at this point in the election?

Trump was around 23% on August 9th, 2015: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/el ... epublican/

Obama was around 22% in August 2007 (Hilary Clinton was around 40% at that time): https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... html#polls

1992 is harder to find data on. But there are some nuggets in this article from 2011: https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.c ... g-part-ii/

Averaging polls from January-June of 1991, Clinton was at 1.7%

Averaging polls from July-December of 1991, Clinton was at 8.3%.

Keep in mind that Clinton did not announce his candidacy until October 1991.

[Mickey]

Here's a weird one--the 2008 Republican primary frontrunner in August of 2007 was the cousin-fucker himself, Rudi Giulani. He was hovering in the high 20s, Thompson was second, and McCain was third at just about 15%. Giulani is briefly overtaken by Huckabee after the later won the Iowa caucus, where McCain came in fourth. But McCain then won New Hampshire and by the end of January almost all the other candidates have dropped out an endorsed him.

[Peeps]

i for one would vote for yang if he did a commercial called yangum style

[Mickey]

i for one would vote for yang if he did a commercial called yangum style

I would seriously consider becoming a monk.

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Green Habit]

Can McP or anyone else poke any holes in these numbers?

Poll: McConnell's approval in Kentucky at 18 percent

If that is accurate as of now, I'd be curious to see if it still holds once his opponent is known and any of his ratfuckers get to work on slamming that opponent.

[Mickey]

Can McP or anyone else poke any holes in these numbers?

Poll: McConnell's approval in Kentucky at 18 percent

I would say the more important number is this:

If McConnell were up for reelection today, 37 percent of respondents said they would vote for the Kentucky Republican. Another 44 percent would instead choose a Democratic opponent, according to the survey.

He's only down seven points on this and he absolutely has a war chest. People might not approve of him in a general sense but once his campaign ads start running endlessly I suspect it'll be a lot tighter.

[verb_to_trust]

He has an R next to his name it's that simple

[Green Habit]

[McParadigm]

[Strat]

Im a bit nervous that there isn't a slam drunk democratic candidate yet. Though I suppose Barack wasn't until after the Iowa primary.

Regardless, considering how the political climate is these days im quite apprehensive about the potential contenders against the Trump faction.

[epilogue]

I can't believe we live in a world where Elizabeth Warren ISN'T the slam dunk candidate.

[Superblood Wolfmoon]

It's still very early but I definitely feel a "Congratulations on your second term President Trump!" kinda thing starting to happen...

[Superblood Wolfmoon]

I can't believe we live in a world where Elizabeth Warren ISN'T the slam dunk candidate.

At this point I'd say she will be before the end of the year. It's certainly shaping up that way with her being the only real contender with Biden. At this point it's about making yourself a national name, and she seems to be doing a good job of that with her debate performances. And this is by no means any sort of slight on her, I'm just pointing out that I think there will be A LOT of people come general election time who, if only for the most superficial of reasons like her haircut and pant suits, view her as Hillary Part 2. In fact I can almost guarantee that if she gets the nomination, that will be Trump's strategy against her. It's sad, but given that it's not a "slam dunk" to a majority of Americans that Donald Trump isn't the embodiment of a dumpster full of old tires on fire, I'm not holding out too much hope that people are going to become intelligent, thoughtful, and not prone to schoolyard taunts when selecting their next president.

Elizabeth Warren needs to unite the entire party and generate so much enthusiasm that people can't wait to vote, because that's for sure what will be coming from Trump's people. A begrudging Democratic base, upset because their guy or gal didn't get the nod, isn't going to win the election.

[BurtReynolds]

I think Warren understands that Hillary's rather passive campaign was the failure, so she'll be much more aggressive.

She's also an establishment-approved version of Sanders, so she might siphon off a lot of his votes since she'll have backing from the media and party officials.

We could see a major revolt of Democrat voters who will back Sanders no matter what, but I think Trump has shell shocked too many democrats to keep them from veering too far from safety. So that favors Warren.

[McParadigm]

Im a bit nervous that there isn't a slam drunk democratic candidate yet. Though I suppose Barack wasn't until after the Iowa primary.

[BurtReynolds]

2016: little competition, eventual candidate winning, general election loss

2008: tight competition, eventual candidate losing, general election win

2004: tight competition, eventual candidate losing, general election loss

2000: little competition, eventual candidate winning, general election loss

1992: little competition, eventual candidate losing, general election win


Can't draw many conclusions it seems.

[4/5]

I think the Democrats can win this election with almost any candidate. I don't think the candidate needs to be moderate to appeal to the middle or a radical leftist to appeal to young people or a woman or a minority or a white guy or anything else. The person simply has to be not Trump. Now, certain candidates will be more problematic than others and could potentially blow it, and some candidates will probably help Trump rally a frenzied base more than others but this is absolutely the Democrats' election to lose. I think everybody is still traumatized by 2016 so much that they need to embrace the underdog story/not be overconfident/try to mentally prepare themselves for 4 more years of this, but so much information we have suggests Trump is in trouble.

[Green Habit]

I kept saying all the "Run for Senate!!!!" folks needed to chill the fuck out.