Official Prediction Thread

[96583UP]

Elizabeth Warren will not become President and go to the Rose Garden annually to read the names of deceased transgender women that she could not protect that year

[96583UP]

By November 202319, NY AG charges Trump Organization with Money Laundering and Tax Fraud

fuckin eh

let's revise this one

[96583UP]

chud will not drive into a house in 2019

still 11 days left!

[96583UP]

hunters of land
hunters of sea
exploit anything for money

[Simple Torture]

Prediction: There will be no general election debates between Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger.

[bune]

Prediction: There will be no general election debates between Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger.

[4/5]

I

McP has shamed me into being more specific about my prediction:

RBG will die on 2/13/20, exactly four years after Scalia. A replacement will be confirmed by the Senate before the Ides of March.

This is getting close.

[Mickey]

Bloomberg won't drop out for a long time--maybe not until the convention itself--but he also won't win a single primary state.

Eh, half-right.

[Mickey]

Putting it here. Biden is going to lose by more than 77 electoral college votes.

Yeah things were looking pretty dodgy for Biden before coronovirus, couple more weeks and Bernie would have had him I’m sure

Bernie is by far the most pro-Trump reelection politician in DC.

There's a prediction thread so maybe I should put it there, but here goes: Biden is going to lose to Trump by a wider electoral college margin than Hillary did.

[Simple Torture]

Prediction: There will be no general election debates between Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger.

I no longer feel confident about this. I was assuming Biden would not be the nominee, but Biden is the only candidate that I think will lower himself to Trump's level and make the debates a dick-measuring contest about who is the tougher dude, and Trump knows his base will eat that up, so he'll be more open to actually appearing on a debate stage.

[verb_to_trust]

Prediction: There will be no general election debates between Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger.

I no longer feel confident about this. I was assuming Biden would not be the nominee, but Biden is the only candidate that I think will lower himself to Trump's level and make the debates a dick-measuring contest about who is the tougher dude, and Trump knows his base will eat that up, so he'll be more open to actually appearing on a debate stage.

They'll end up doing them remotely or in an empty room. Trump needs a crowd to work. I don't think he'll debate though.

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Mickey]

Despite the pandemic disaster, there's just no denying that Biden might forget where he is at any given moment, so...

Trump will win reelection, but he'll lose the senate as economic anxiety gets shifted to down-ballot races. He'll be impeached, and we'll welcome our new President Nikki Haley.

Was really with you to the end, but they're not replacing Pence.

[Mickey]

Oh also the Dems will not impeach even if they take the senate. Is that a prediction? It is now.

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[96583UP]

Biden will wait a while to announce his VP because he has little to gain by identifying them early and the longer he remains mum on the topic the longer it keeps Dem VP hopeful candidates from trashing him for being an alleged finger-rapist and when he does announce it will be someone that won't alienate corporate donors

[Rob]

Despite the pandemic disaster, there's just no denying that Biden might forget where he is at any given moment, so...

Trump will win reelection, but he'll lose the senate as economic anxiety gets shifted to down-ballot races. He'll be impeached, and we'll welcome our new President Nikki Haley.

Agree with the first sentence. But Biden has a really low bar to clear, and how exactly does Trump win & lose the senate? Are people really gonna make a conscious choice to vote Dem for senate but also vote Trump?

Oh also the Dems will not impeach even if they take the senate. Is that a prediction? It is now.

Agreed, absent something really spectacular even by Trump standards. But it would have to be an absolutely sure bet, and I don't think that exists.

Not sold either way on replacing Pence, though. I don't think Nikki Haley is enough to change things too much, but Pence seems to have been chosen to assure Christians and traditional conservatives that they could trust Trump. Then they became Trump's biggest fans. No harm in throwing a minority woman in that role to see if they can get a few more votes.

[verb_to_trust]

I think it's a fair point that evangelical christians have proven they stand for nothing and thus Pence is pointless.

[Mickey]

Despite the pandemic disaster, there's just no denying that Biden might forget where he is at any given moment, so...

Trump will win reelection, but he'll lose the senate as economic anxiety gets shifted to down-ballot races. He'll be impeached, and we'll welcome our new President Nikki Haley.

Agree with the first sentence. But Biden has a really low bar to clear, and how exactly does Trump win & lose the senate? Are people really gonna make a conscious choice to vote Dem for senate but also vote Trump?

I made my bombastic prediction above, but I think the idea that Trump wins by a hair but loses the Senate is incredibly plausible given the layout of the electoral college. I mean, just look at the map--Trump squeaks out a win in Florida, PA, Ohio, Wisconsin, and North Carolina--by turning those on the default 270towin map, that gives him 278 EC votes. But those five states only account for one senate seat (which is already Republican). So just hypothetically, we could say that the Dems pick up seats in Montana, Arizona, Colorado, and Maine (or literally any other set of four states, though they'd in reality need at least five pickups since Doug Jones losing Alabama seems fated at this point, so maybe we say that they pull Iowa too). It's quite logistically possible given where the Senate elections are in 2020.

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE