Anybody want a Corona?

[Bammer]

Good stuff on why isolating is crucial right now:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... simulator/

Great visualisations

I have a problem with their 200-person simulations in that nobody ever dies.

[bada]

So far 61 people have died in the US and 3100 have tested positive. I see reports that hundred of thousands of people probably have it. The Governor of Ohio said 100,000 prob have it in his state alone. Does that mean there are a bunch of people that died from it and we have no idea? That enough time hasn't gone by for people to get deathly ill? Or the mortality rate is way lower than we think?

Probably all of those things. Scientists don’t know yet and don’t know if it could mutate again, so better safe than sorry.

It means thousands of people are probably walking a round asymptomatic, they are carriers or they have really mild symptoms or the virus is still incubating but they are still contagious. It doesn't mean people have died from it unaccounted for.

What I don't get is we know not enough people are being tested and we won't get an accurate picture until people get tested but....shouldn't we see a higher percentage of people dying since the amount of people coming back positive but recovering isn't lowering the average. Why only 61 deaths if hundreds of thousands of people are walking around with minor symptoms? It's very possible I don't understand math.

[digster]

All of this is speculative, but the higher death tolls we're seeing are likely exacerbated by overwhelmed medical systems. It's not that Italy's death percentage is as high as it is regardless of medical intervention, it's that the system is so swamped in terms of a lack of sufficient resources and manpower that people are dying who would not in a system not stretched beyond its breaking point.

When it comes to the US numbers, testing has been so fucked; there is so much we don't know that it's hard to make judgments. Neither the number of cases, nor the number of deaths, are likely correct.

[Anders]

1250 tested as infected in Norway so far, 3 dead. But 250 dead in Italy in the last day.

[bada]

I just would think we should be seeing 2000-3000 dead for every 100,000 infected so if it's true the US is crawling in this virus we should be seeing higher numbers of dead regardless of testing. I guess I'm just hoping it turns out to not be as bad as advertised.

[Anders]

Time might be a factor. Italy’s had the virus for three weeks now. Norway only started getting real numbers about a week ago. Think the US is in a similar situation.

[Superblood Wolfmoon]

Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world, with a median age of about 46 years old. Nearly 60% of the population is aged 40 and over, about 23% of which is over 65 — heightening the population's risk with regards to the novel coronavirus currently spreading through Italy.

[Self]

Our median age is pushing 40, I think. Not that far off from Italy.

[digster]

I just would think we should be seeing 2000-3000 dead for every 100,000 infected so if it's true the US is crawling in this virus we should be seeing higher numbers of dead regardless of testing. I guess I'm just hoping it turns out to not be as bad as advertised.

Again, I think the thing is that we don't know. Some of the people being labeled as having died of the virus were checked posthumously. It's entirely possible that corona was a cause of death for more than those 61 people and we just don't know cause we've only been stringently tracking deaths of it for a few weeks. It's just difficult to know what is happening yet. The only thing that seems certain thus far is that places that practiced extensive testing, contact tracing and took isolation seriously have lower death rates than places like Italy and Wuhan.

[digster]

For example, in NY where I live, this is the real worrying factor;

No one is really sure what's going to happen in the next few weeks. As far as I (limitedly) understand it, I think if death tolls shoot up, going to be because need for ICU beds exceeds supply.

[dimejinky99]

Take no pleasure in saying it but it’s good to finally see my US pals online (and on here I guess) finally take this seriously.
It was being laughed at by some and the others didn’t even seem aware of it.

That’s changed completely the last couple of days.

[LetMeSleep]

Just bought a chest freezer (planned anyway), filled it, bought about 3L of hand sanitiser, 10 x N95 masks and 3 dozen surgical masks. Updated our medicine cabinet too.

From Feb 8th.

[blueviper]

Trump: discuss rate change and how happy everyone will be with the market. Wants apology from fake news media (mic dropping an email from the Google CEO?). Walks out to let Pence et al speak about Coronavirus, a global pandemic.


He’s such a disgrace.

[blueviper]

A few weeks ago I told my wife to get extra stuff and she thought I was nuts. Friday she said she sees why I was so worried.

[blueviper]

Just bought a chest freezer (planned anyway), filled it, bought about 3L of hand sanitiser, 10 x N95 masks and 3 dozen surgical masks. Updated our medicine cabinet too.

From Feb 8th.

[Rob]

All of this is speculative, but the higher death tolls we're seeing are likely exacerbated by overwhelmed medical systems. It's not that Italy's death percentage is as high as it is regardless of medical intervention, it's that the system is so swamped in terms of a lack of sufficient resources and manpower that people are dying who would not in a system not stretched beyond its breaking point.

When it comes to the US numbers, testing has been so fucked; there is so much we don't know that it's hard to make judgments. Neither the number of cases, nor the number of deaths, are likely correct.

Yea, this seems like the case. There’s a tipping point where the system can’t keep up anymore. Tough decisions get made.

[McParadigm]

For example, in NY where I live, this is the real worrying factor;

No one is really sure what's going to happen in the next few weeks. As far as I (limitedly) understand it, I think if death tolls shoot up, going to be because need for ICU beds exceeds supply.

Yup. I don’t think this is really that complicated.

1. From South Korean testing, we know that young, mostly asymptomatic people are actually a sizable percentage of cases. This is who many of the “hidden” cases are. We aren’t testing any of these people.

2. Seattle’s hospitals are currently under terrible strain from the volume of cases, but are not yet beyond capacity. Once they are, the death toll here will skyrocket as the number of people getting insufficient treatment also skyrockets. The rest of the country will reach the same circumstances, given time.

3. The only way to prevent item number two is for the people in item number one to fuck off back home.

[E.H. Ruddock]

Ohio and Illinois closing all restaurants and bars. California closing bars and wineries

[Norah]

Massachusetts locking it down.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/15/ ... 25-people/

Governor Charlie Baker announced Sunday that all bars and restaurants in Massachusetts would be shut down to on-premise consumption starting Tuesday through April 17, and banned gatherings larger than 25 people, in an effort to stem the coronavirus outbreak in the state. He also ordered a three-week suspension of all public and private schools, effective Tuesday through April 7.

Baker also said that there was evidence of community spread in seven Massachusetts counties.

“The facts on the ground have changed,” he said. “Now that we have evidence based on the testing results that we have community transmission in seven counties in Massachusetts, I think at this point in time it’s particularly appropriate we not only move on the school closures, but also that we get a lot more aggressive around other places and spaces that people gather.”

Baker said he was amending earlier guidance banning gatherings of 250 people or more to 25, including all community, civic, public, leisure, faith-based events, as well as sports games with spectators, concerts, and conventions. It also covers fitness centers, private clubs, and theaters.

Baker said that bars and restaurants can continue to offer food for takeout or delivery, and noted that the order does not apply to grocery stores or pharmacies.

“If we take decisive steps now and everyone plays their part by following the best medical guidance, we can slow down the spread,” Baker said at a press conference Sunday night, adding that the coronavirus is “incredibly contagious. It is more contagious than the seasonal flu.”

[Self]

Massachusetts locking it down.

Just came here to post the same. About time, Charlie.