Election 2020

[Mickey]

Based on 2018, I don't see Trump winning in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania again. He might even lose Ohio. That's the ballgame.

Thanks - I was just going to ask.

Assuming the blue states stay blue from 2016 ... which that voted red would need to flip blue for Drumpf to lose?

A number of possibilities--Clinton lost by 77 so you need half of that in terms of electoral votes to make up the difference (39). Ohio-Wisconsin-Michigan would do it. So would Ohio-Wisconsin-Missouri. That works if you swap in PA for any of those terms too. Florida and literally any other swing state would do it, but he's not going to win Florida, so. This is all assuming, though, that Biden holds Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado.

[Anders]

Based on 2018, I don't see Trump winning in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania again. He might even lose Ohio. That's the ballgame.

I'm not saying I agree with this, because I don't know about the politics of these states well enough to weigh in... But I agree it will all come down to just these states, and maybe TX

Sounds like a flawed system.

You don’t say!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hopefully something will be done to change it in the future.

That's it, I'm gonna write a letter.

A march would be better.

[Hatfield]

Comparing 2018 to 2020 is, sorry, pretty dumb. Clinton lost massively in 94 and still won in 96 against a particularly weak candidate (which Biden is). Midterm elections have little predictive power on national presidential ones.

Even if you don't look at 2018, Trump won Wisconsin by 18,000 votes. Michigan by 11,000 votes. Pennsylvania by 44,000 votes. Many Obama voters switched to Trump because they couldn't stand Hillary. I think all three of those states will feel much better about pulling the lever for Biden than they did for lock her up.

[Rob]

Biden should be able to take back PA. He is originally from Scranton. I don't know about WI, but I have a hard time believing he can't take MI back too. As far as flipping an actual red state - I would watch Arizona.

[Strat]

The only way Biden loses is because of people like Burt and LV who would rather make liberals squirm and somehow find humor in a trump presidency.

No way he carries the same amount of independents this time around. It wont be a landslide for biden, in fact it will be way too fucking close for my comfort, but I just dont see it come November/whenever an election happens.

[digster]

Biden has been consistently up in PA and MI (and Trump has not been popular in those states even prior to Biden's ascendency). If he wins those two states, it really comes down to turning one more state; Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, NC, OH, anyone of those will put him over provided he wins PA and MI. Trump is an incumbent, which is a huge benefit, but despite that, he's still the weakest incumbent in modern history.

[Mickey]

Comparing 2018 to 2020 is, sorry, pretty dumb. Clinton lost massively in 94 and still won in 96 against a particularly weak candidate (which Biden is). Midterm elections have little predictive power on national presidential ones.

Even if you don't look at 2018, Trump won Wisconsin by 18,000 votes. Michigan by 11,000 votes. Pennsylvania by 44,000 votes. Many Obama voters switched to Trump because they couldn't stand Hillary. I think all three of those states will feel much better about pulling the lever for Biden than they did for lock her up.

I think the thing you and others who are bullish on Biden's chances elide is that Trump was an unknown in 2016. There were hundreds of thousands (maybe millions!) of votes cast against him out of fear that he would become some sort of open fascist (to say nothing of the fact that people also voted in the interest of gender representation). I'd wager that that's just not going to be a factor this time--the so-called moderate Republicans have seen that they can downplay the oafish things he says in public and they'll still get their tax cuts, while the center-left has the unlucky burden of trying to get out the vote for a man their own party accepted as "good enough," as Biden's positive campaign is more or less non-existent. Meanwhile, what's the outrage that drives people to Biden? Kids in cages? Whoops. Deportation? Whoops. Add to that the Trump GE playbook, which will be NAFTA smear and the same flip-flopping paintbrush they used on John Kerry, and it is open and shut. Maybe Biden picks up Wisconsin. Maybe.

[digster]

That absolutely swings both ways. Trump no longer inherently has the "fuck it, I hate Hillary so let's try it" vote. Trump, in addition to everything else, was incredibly lucky in terms of his opponent; he ran against one of the most divisive politicians in the country, who had been divisive for decades. Biden's not going to have that problem; he's just not divisive in the way Clinton was. I'm not saying this to say that Biden is a sure bet; I just don't see how anyone could say either of them are a "sure bet" at this point.

[Rob]

I think the thing you and others who are bullish on Biden's chances elide is that Trump was an unknown in 2016.

The fact that he was the real change agent in 2016 helped him. It clearly did not drive lots of people to vote against him out of fear, given it was a low turnout election. There really won't be a new, change candidate this time around. Part of Trump's appeal was "what could be..." and now there is no mystique behind it. And he's losing "educated" white folk. I'm not too bullish on Biden's chances, but I do think people are a bit bullish on Trump's.

edit: yea I guess I just said the same basic thing as digster, didn't see his post.

[Mickey]

I think the thing you and others who are bullish on Biden's chances elide is that Trump was an unknown in 2016.

The fact that he was the real change agent in 2016 helped him. It clearly did not drive lots of people to vote against him out of fear, given it was a low turnout election. There really won't be a new, change candidate this time around. Part of Trump's appeal was "what could be..." and now there is no mystique behind it. And he's losing "educated" white folk. I'm not too bullish on Biden's chances, but I do think people are a bit bullish on Trump's.

edit: yea I guess I just said the same basic thing as digster, didn't see his post.

That conclusion doesn't follow from the evidence--the DNC get out the vote message was "stop Trump," so it's safe to assume a chunk of the Democratic electorate voted to do just that. I guess another way of putting this is that I don't see a big motivator for Democratic voters to show up. Trump's danger factor has been massively reduced and Biden is a candidate no one is excited about. What makes the average Dem voter--especially the youth vote that the Dems rely on--get off the couch? Meanwhile the Boomers and all the Q-Anon swine will be out in droves. I expect turnout to be lower, proportionally, than even 2016, and I think that bodes really well for Trump.

[LoathedVermin72]

The only way Biden loses is because of people like Burt and LV who would rather make liberals squirm and somehow find humor in a trump presidency.

No way he carries the same amount of independents this time around. It wont be a landslide for biden, in fact it will be way too fucking close for my comfort, but I just dont see it come November/whenever an election happens.

You’re delusional

[LoathedVermin72]

Also that is not at all why I refuse to vote for Biden. But it is funny to watch liberals squirm.

[Anders]

Also that is not at all why I refuse to vote for Biden. But it is funny to watch liberals squirm.

Aren’t you going to vote?

[Bammer]

Based on 2018, I don't see Trump winning in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania again. He might even lose Ohio. That's the ballgame.

I'm not saying I agree with this, because I don't know about the politics of these states well enough to weigh in... But I agree it will all come down to just these states, and maybe TX

Sounds like a flawed system.

You don’t say!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hopefully something will be done to change it in the future.

That's it, I'm gonna write a letter.

A march would be better.

You’re a poet and you didn’t know it

[LoathedVermin72]

Also that is not at all why I refuse to vote for Biden. But it is funny to watch liberals squirm.

Aren’t you going to vote?

I’ll vote for smaller stuff but probably not in the presidential election. Zero interest in voting for either candidate. CO is gonna vote blue anyway so it doesn’t really matter.

[Hatfield]

I think the thing you and others who are bullish on Biden's chances elide is that Trump was an unknown in 2016.

The fact that he was the real change agent in 2016 helped him. It clearly did not drive lots of people to vote against him out of fear, given it was a low turnout election. There really won't be a new, change candidate this time around. Part of Trump's appeal was "what could be..." and now there is no mystique behind it. And he's losing "educated" white folk. I'm not too bullish on Biden's chances, but I do think people are a bit bullish on Trump's.

edit: yea I guess I just said the same basic thing as digster, didn't see his post.

That conclusion doesn't follow from the evidence--the DNC get out the vote message was "stop Trump," so it's safe to assume a chunk of the Democratic electorate voted to do just that. I guess another way of putting this is that I don't see a big motivator for Democratic voters to show up. Trump's danger factor has been massively reduced and Biden is a candidate no one is excited about. What makes the average Dem voter--especially the youth vote that the Dems rely on--get off the couch? Meanwhile the Boomers and all the Q-Anon swine will be out in droves. I expect turnout to be lower, proportionally, than even 2016, and I think that bodes really well for Trump.

I don't know Mickey, the story from 2016 wasn't the droves of Democrats that showed up because they were trying to "stop Trump". I think it was independents and even card carrying union members voting for Trump in unexpected ways. Trump is losing independents and in the three states he won so narrowly (MI, WI and PA), Biden has a much better chance. I don't feel bullish, but I do feel Trump has a hill to climb in those states.

[Rob]

I think the thing you and others who are bullish on Biden's chances elide is that Trump was an unknown in 2016.

The fact that he was the real change agent in 2016 helped him. It clearly did not drive lots of people to vote against him out of fear, given it was a low turnout election. There really won't be a new, change candidate this time around. Part of Trump's appeal was "what could be..." and now there is no mystique behind it. And he's losing "educated" white folk. I'm not too bullish on Biden's chances, but I do think people are a bit bullish on Trump's.

edit: yea I guess I just said the same basic thing as digster, didn't see his post.

That conclusion doesn't follow from the evidence--the DNC get out the vote message was "stop Trump," so it's safe to assume a chunk of the Democratic electorate voted to do just that. I guess another way of putting this is that I don't see a big motivator for Democratic voters to show up. Trump's danger factor has been massively reduced and Biden is a candidate no one is excited about. What makes the average Dem voter--especially the youth vote that the Dems rely on--get off the couch? Meanwhile the Boomers and all the Q-Anon swine will be out in droves. I expect turnout to be lower, proportionally, than even 2016, and I think that bodes really well for Trump.

We'll see, but the Dem candidate this time isn't as unpopular as Hillary Clinton, Boomers are a shrinking population, and Dem voter registration and turnout has been rising since '16. And I do think there is evidence to support my conclusion - turnout was high when Obama was on the ticket against normal republicans, and much lower when it was about "stopping Trump" with Hillary. I'm sure a few people turned up to vote against Trump but that obviously didn't motivate enough people. And again, Trump won a razor thin election against a deeply unpopular politician. You really think he's expanded his base in these last 3 years? He has no margin for error here. Even if Biden's turnout was somewhere between Obama & Hillary (which is very plausible), that's enough.

[LoathedVermin72]

Is Biden really more popular than Clinton? That doesn’t sound right

[Anders]

Based on 2018, I don't see Trump winning in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania again. He might even lose Ohio. That's the ballgame.

I'm not saying I agree with this, because I don't know about the politics of these states well enough to weigh in... But I agree it will all come down to just these states, and maybe TX

Sounds like a flawed system.

You don’t say!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hopefully something will be done to change it in the future.

That's it, I'm gonna write a letter.

A march would be better.

You’re a poet and you didn’t know it

How far the unknown transcends the what we know.

[Rob]

Is Biden really more popular than Clinton? That doesn’t sound right

The 2020 primary suggests he is.