Election 2020

[Rob]

Do you or anyone else doubt that if Obama could run again, he'd win? Is it wrong to believe that after 3+ years of Trump, Obama's VP would be a good choice in the minds of the average voter? Yea he's fuckin old, but it's also gonna be a choice between the Obama/Biden team & Trump team.

[LoathedVermin72]

I think banking on goodwill from the Obama administration to carry a geriatric incoherent creepy white dude who has alienated pretty much all of the youth vote and has been accused of sexual assault is not exactly a foolproof strategy to get a democrat elected, especially against an incumbent republican

[B]

I think banking on goodwill from the Obama administration to carry a geriatric incoherent creepy white dude who has alienated pretty much all of the youth vote and has been accused of sexual assault is not exactly a foolproof strategy to get a democrat elected, especially against an incumbent republican

I generally start from a position of disagreeing with LV, but ...

[verb_to_trust]

Has anyone talked about the liberal Wisconsin judge who beat Trump's incumbent, who he endorsed via Twitter after successfully suppressing voter turn out? She didn't just win she won convincingly.

Plenty of evidence out there that Dems are in a stronger position than '16, and Trump's chances aren't as good as many people seem to think.

It’s a good thing the DNC backed a strong candidate to defeat him

Spoiler: show

How do you define "strong candidate?" Turnout in the primary was up from 2016 and Biden posted some huge numbers post-Nevada, on the backs of the same type of voters who just defeated Trump's judge in WI.

I dunno, someone who’s not a walking corpse incapable of stringing a cogent sentence together? For starters.

I know you think Trump is funny, but have you not noticed he has frontotemporal dementia and is addicted to stimulants?

[digster]

Do you or anyone else doubt that if Obama could run again, he'd win? Is it wrong to believe that after 3+ years of Trump, Obama's VP would be a good choice in the minds of the average voter? Yea he's fuckin old, but it's also gonna be a choice between the Obama/Biden team & Trump team.

I get thinking Biden's a risk, or even that Trump may be a bit more likely (if only for the benefit of being the incumbent), but I go back to not understanding how anyone could feel certain about either of these candidates. In either case, there's no way it's going to be a landslide.

[Peeps]

Has anyone talked about the liberal Wisconsin judge who beat Trump's incumbent, who he endorsed via Twitter after successfully suppressing voter turn out? She didn't just win she won convincingly.

Plenty of evidence out there that Dems are in a stronger position than '16, and Trump's chances aren't as good as many people seem to think.

It’s a good thing the DNC backed a strong candidate to defeat him

Spoiler: show

How do you define "strong candidate?" Turnout in the primary was up from 2016 and Biden posted some huge numbers post-Nevada, on the backs of the same type of voters who just defeated Trump's judge in WI.

I dunno, someone who’s not a walking corpse incapable of stringing a cogent sentence together? For starters.

I know you think Trump is funny, but have you not noticed he has frontotemporal dementia and is addicted to stimulants?

its like looking for that thing that is right in front of you but you look past it constantly and never find it

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Rob]

I dunno, but if I had to bet on which is more likely between Biden improving on Hillary's performance and Trump improving on his '16 performance, I'm taking the former. Clearly seems to be a swing vote in the suburbs that's powered Dems in special elections & the midterms, and powered Biden in this primary. I've yet to see/hear actual evidence that Trump & the GOP have improved their standing anywhere since Trump was elected.

Do you or anyone else doubt that if Obama could run again, he'd win? Is it wrong to believe that after 3+ years of Trump, Obama's VP would be a good choice in the minds of the average voter? Yea he's fuckin old, but it's also gonna be a choice between the Obama/Biden team & Trump team.

I get thinking Biden's a risk, or even that Trump may be a bit more likely (if only for the benefit of being the incumbent), but I go back to not understanding how anyone could feel certain about either of these candidates. In either case, there's no way it's going to be a landslide.

There won't be any landslide, no way. I just think it's more likely than not that Trump has alienated at least a small % of people who voted for him last time, while Biden seems more popular than Hillary was (according to these primary results).

[Mickey]

Lot to unpack here, so I'll do it all at once:

Biden seems more popular than Hillary was (according to these primary results).

How do you mean? Biden has lower unfavorables--Hillary was a historically unlikable candidate--but I'm not seeing anything in the primaries that suggests he's popular so much as he's the default.

Has anyone talked about the liberal Wisconsin judge who beat Trump's incumbent, who he endorsed via Twitter after successfully suppressing voter turn out? She didn't just win she won convincingly.

In a year where there was no Republican presidential primary. Hard to extrapolate much from this given that the other team was massively disincentivized from going to the polls during a pandemic.

Warren is not going to be the VP pick

I bet she is

Based on what?

I think it’s been the plan for a long time. She ran as a Bernie spoiler knowing she’d be named Biden’s VP when he gets the nom.

She ran as a Bernie spoiler because she couldn't help herself, got thirsty.

Yeah I do not think Liz Warren consciously tried to kneecap Bernie. I don't think intention really matters but I find that hard to believe, and she's not going to be Biden's VP.

[Mickey]

I think the thing you and others who are bullish on Biden's chances elide is that Trump was an unknown in 2016.

The fact that he was the real change agent in 2016 helped him. It clearly did not drive lots of people to vote against him out of fear, given it was a low turnout election. There really won't be a new, change candidate this time around. Part of Trump's appeal was "what could be..." and now there is no mystique behind it. And he's losing "educated" white folk. I'm not too bullish on Biden's chances, but I do think people are a bit bullish on Trump's.

edit: yea I guess I just said the same basic thing as digster, didn't see his post.

That conclusion doesn't follow from the evidence--the DNC get out the vote message was "stop Trump," so it's safe to assume a chunk of the Democratic electorate voted to do just that. I guess another way of putting this is that I don't see a big motivator for Democratic voters to show up. Trump's danger factor has been massively reduced and Biden is a candidate no one is excited about. What makes the average Dem voter--especially the youth vote that the Dems rely on--get off the couch? Meanwhile the Boomers and all the Q-Anon swine will be out in droves. I expect turnout to be lower, proportionally, than even 2016, and I think that bodes really well for Trump.

I don't know Mickey, the story from 2016 wasn't the droves of Democrats that showed up because they were trying to "stop Trump". I think it was independents and even card carrying union members voting for Trump in unexpected ways. Trump is losing independents and in the three states he won so narrowly (MI, WI and PA), Biden has a much better chance. I don't feel bullish, but I do feel Trump has a hill to climb in those states.

Circling back here, though it's kind of already been covered: I'm not sure I follow you. The fact that independents and union voters delivered the election to Trump doesn't negate the argument that the Democrats who did show up in 2016 did so to vote against Trump more than they did for Hillary, which I would say is borne out in Hillary's consistently underwater favorability rating. This was the primary message of the Hillary campaign--"Love Trumps Hate," i.e. vote for me against this big cretin. If anything, depressed turnout in 2016 is evidence that the voters that were cast were as likely to be negative as they were positive endorsements. So Trump might lose some of the independents in the rust belt areas, but if Biden also loses some of the Democrat voters who voted for HRC as a way to vote against DJT, then it's sort of a moot point, isn't it?

But something else to bring up--the Dem Primary was a real kids-gloves affair and that is not being factored in to the current polling. What drove Hillary's unfavorables? Corruption? Wait until Trump gets his hands on Biden's record. I get being wary of predicting a Trump landslide given how volatile everything is--and sure, a really bad COVID turn might changes things--but I am not optimistic that a Biden campaign is going to rally enough voters to displace the Trumpist bloc that you know is going to come out for him.

[digster]

Who are the people who were galvanized in 2016 by the opportunity to vote against Trump who are going to be less inclined to do that this time?

[Mickey]

Who are the people who were galvanized in 2016 by the opportunity to vote against Trump who are going to be less inclined to do that this time?

For starters, Trump's job approval rating is basically as high as its ever been, so that suggests that yes, there are people who feared a Trump presidency who no longer do. But more broadly I think it has to do with exposure: Trump isn't an unknown anymore, and it's hard to construe him as an existential threat to most of the voting block. The Women's March could serve as another barometer--remember all that oppositional energy in early 2017? Where'd it go?

[Mickey]

To be clear I do think Trump is an existential threat both to certain classes of voters and to human existence more broadly (vis a vis climate change). But the Dems can't really make that argument if Biden's big proposal is rejoin the Paris Agreement or lower the Medicare age to 60. And it certainly doesn't help make the case that he needs to be stopped when Pelosi keeps passing his budgets.

[digster]

Who are the people who were galvanized in 2016 by the opportunity to vote against Trump who are going to be less inclined to do that this time?

For starters, Trump's job approval rating is basically as high as its ever been, so that suggests that yes, there are people who feared a Trump presidency who no longer do. But more broadly I think it has to do with exposure: Trump isn't an unknown anymore, and it's hard to construe him as an existential threat to most of the voting block. The Women's March could serve as another barometer--remember all that oppositional energy in early 2017? Where'd it go?

The people who this would most likely apply to are moderates and center-rights who aren't fans of the President (in other words, the people who went for Dems in the '18 midterms). It's entirely possible Biden does well with these voters. And your point about his approval rating is kind of underlying my basic point - in the biggest crisis the country has faced since 9/11, he can barely break a 45% approval rating; his high disapprovals are the most consistent thing about his presidency. Much is made of the polls signifying that Trump's base is unmovable no matter what happens, but we speak about the flip side of the coin less often; there's a massive portion of the country that has made up their mind on him, and did so a while ago, and it's not just relegated to Hollywood or the Upper West Side.

[digster]

To be clear I do think Trump is an existential threat both to certain classes of voters and to human existence more broadly (vis a vis climate change). But the Dems can't really make that argument if Biden's big proposal is rejoin the Paris Agreement or lower the Medicare age to 60. And it certainly doesn't help make the case that he needs to be stopped when Pelosi keeps passing his budgets.

I think we're overrating how much people weigh the details of policy in presidential elections; how often has Trump in office committed to policy actions that fly directly in the face of his public persona? The country's most popular populist signed a tax bill that couldn't be friendlier to big corporations - does anyone think that lost him voters from his base?

[Mickey]

Okay but again, is Joe Biden going to marshall enough energy to get people to cast that essentially negative vote for him? I say no. I think other Democrats could have but Biden is almost uniquely suited to lose to Trump. As LV pointed out above, he's an inarticulate, corrupt, career politician with a credible rape allegation against him trying to run on a platform of "let's get back to normal." So yes, it's possible he does well with that set of voters in the way all things are possible, but I don't see it happening. The parallels to John Kerry eating shit against Bush are uncanny.

[Mickey]

To be clear I do think Trump is an existential threat both to certain classes of voters and to human existence more broadly (vis a vis climate change). But the Dems can't really make that argument if Biden's big proposal is rejoin the Paris Agreement or lower the Medicare age to 60. And it certainly doesn't help make the case that he needs to be stopped when Pelosi keeps passing his budgets.

I think we're overrating how much people weigh the details of policy in presidential elections; how often has Trump in office committed to policy actions that fly directly in the face of his public persona? The country's most popular populist signed a tax bill that couldn't be friendlier to big corporations - does anyone think that lost him voters from his base?

Absolutely not, but again, that's central to my point--Trump ran a campaign that marshalled powerful affects of resentment, anger, and pride. It doesn't matter what he did so much as the style with which he did it, including promising things he can't or won't deliver. Joe Biden is running on "can't we just get back to normal?" I know which one I'd rather have on my side.

[digster]

Okay but again, is Joe Biden going to marshall enough energy to get people to cast that essentially negative vote for him? I say no. I think other Democrats could have but Biden is almost uniquely suited to lose to Trump. As LV pointed out above, he's an inarticulate, corrupt, career politician with a credible rape allegation against him trying to run on a platform of "let's get back to normal." So yes, it's possible he does well with that set of voters in the way all things are possible, but I don't see it happening. The parallels to John Kerry eating shit against Bush are uncanny.

But this doesn't take into account the place Bush was in when running for re-election vs. Trump, and their comparative popularity, or lack thereof. None of this is saying Biden's a lock, a great candidate, or whatever. I just think, whether it's because of incumbency or feeling like they got burned in 2016, there's this tendency to undersell Trump's weakness as a candidate this time around.

[BurtReynolds]

Gee if only someone could make a poll asking who we THINK will win the election so we could get some objective data, but oh no that would be too much.

[Rob]

For starters, Trump's job approval rating is basically as high as its ever been, so that suggests that yes, there are people who feared a Trump presidency who no longer do.

It's natural for a president to see a bounce during a crisis. But George W Bush reached the upper 80s after 9/11, and Trump's bounce has literally disappeared in one month.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... l-ratings/

is Joe Biden going to marshall enough energy to get people to cast that essentially negative vote for him?

How do you explain the fact that primary turnout is higher than 2016 and Biden is the beneficiary? All the special elections and the midterms showed that people are voting more for Democrats since 2016, and that turnout is high. Why would that stop if the general election candidate is a mainstream, rather generic Democrat? You keep shooting down the evidence for Biden, but what exactly is the evidence that Trump is in a good position here? We know how he makes certain groups feel (some love him, some hate him), we know a lot more about him now. Is there evidence that he can even get as many votes as last time, let alone expand on it?