Anybody want a Corona?

[Bi_3]

MT rolling out a very reasonable, phased return to normal

coming back to this...

Look, I think that politicians making the decisions that should be made by public health officials is obviously a bad idea. But taking one politician's birds-eye view, it's not too bad. It's en election year, he's running against a Republican incumbent for senate, and there's lots more at stake.

MT's COVID-19 cases peaked on 3/26, and has been on a fairly steady rhythm of overall decline, with occasional lessening spikes (is there a better term for this?).

His is a version of the White House guidelines, with a three-phased plan that continues with social distancing, limited numbers of customers in various establishments, and other limitations in place through Phase 3 (which doesn't arrive until May).

MT is a massive state, with just a million residents spread across a fairly staggering 56 counties. And some of those counties have zero confirmed cases to date.

The governor's plan gives the counties broad leeway to impose stricter restrictions. Of course the big problem will be getting counties to coordinate; it doesn't do much good for Gallatin Co to impose stricter regs, if everyone from Gallatin just goes over to Madison to party.

And another big consideration is what happens when (no date yet) YNP and Glacier open up their gates.

I think the theory here is that the numbers are low enough that if there is a spike, the state can respond quickly, and impose more restrictions if needed.

I don't think it's a perfect plan by any means, but then I'm not sure there is one. But I think the political calculus of "Hey, I might be able to get our state back on track with minimal collateral damage, and potentially win my senate race" is not a bad one, all things considered. But I also think that anyone who's pissed about this -- who thinks we should continue on with a SAH order for a while longer -- is holding a totally valid opinion based on science.

Again, no perfect answers here, but I think our situation is unique, and reasonably sound, all things considered.

BE SMART!

[Rob]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new-yor ... -says.html

An estimated 13.9% of the New Yorkers have likely had Covid-19, according to preliminary results of coronavirus antibody testing released by Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Thursday.

The state randomly tested 3,000 people at grocery stores and shopping locations across 19 counties in 40 localities to see if they had the antibodies to fight the coronavirus, indicating they have had the virus and recovered from it, Cuomo said.

With more than 19.4 million people residents, according to U.S. Census data, the preliminary results indicate that at least 2.7 million New Yorkers have been infected with Covid-19.

[Hatfield]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new-yor ... -says.html

An estimated 13.9% of the New Yorkers have likely had Covid-19, according to preliminary results of coronavirus antibody testing released by Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Thursday.

The state randomly tested 3,000 people at grocery stores and shopping locations across 19 counties in 40 localities to see if they had the antibodies to fight the coronavirus, indicating they have had the virus and recovered from it, Cuomo said.

With more than 19.4 million people residents, according to U.S. Census data, the preliminary results indicate that at least 2.7 million New Yorkers have been infected with Covid-19.

That's a good sign?

[Rob]

Don't know if it's a good sign or not. I would imagine the number is lower elsewhere. And that's a lot of death considering 86% haven't gotten it.

[Mickey]

If my brief math is correct (11000 deaths out of 2.7 million projected exposed), it would suggest a .4% mortality rate--still four times as deadly as the flu but nowhere near the Italian numbers.

[verb_to_trust]

Is anyone even sure yet you have effective immunity after recovering?

[Mickey]

Is anyone even sure yet you have effective immunity after recovering?

If it's similar to other coronaviruses, you should have anywhere from a year to eight years of immunity. But I've not seen any definitive studies.

[McParadigm]

A random sample comprised of people found at grocery stores and shopping locations is going to skew higher than the broader population, fellas.

[Bi_3]

If my brief math is correct (11000 deaths out of 2.7 million projected exposed), it would suggest a .4% mortality rate--still four times as deadly as the flu but nowhere near the Italian numbers.

Yes, but wasnt that more a function of the population age that was infected?

[Mickey]

If my brief math is correct (11000 deaths out of 2.7 million projected exposed), it would suggest a .4% mortality rate--still four times as deadly as the flu but nowhere near the Italian numbers.

Yes, but wasnt that more a function of the population age that was infected?

Yes, I don't think anyone thought the true mortality rate was upwards of 8%. Still, .4% would be significantly lower than the global average (3%ish). As McP points out, though, the methodology here is open to suspicion.

[digster]

Do we even have the testing capacity to come close to a reliable number on # of infected? Especially in a place like NYC. According to that study, NYC had a 21% infection rate, meaning a little over one in five people in the city have had it in the past several months. That would mean that these individuals had been through it and were far enough past it to build up the antibodies to be detected. Are there any amateur epidemiologists here; is there any disease that could move that fast, infecting between 2 and 2.5 million in the span of a few months?

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[digster]

I'll caveat my inexperience, but if I had to bet, I'd say this estimate, written by the head of the NYC Council Health Committee chairman, seems like it may be a realistic assessment. But I don't see how we're going to possibly know this before testing capacity increases.

The real number of deaths in the city at this point is probably more like 15,000 — if you count those who are dying at home undiagnosed or who couldn’t access normal medical care. The number of people who have caught this virus in New York is probably 10 times the official positive test count, which today [Friday] stands at, I think, 117,000. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if we had 1.2 million people who have or have had this virus in New York City. This would give us a death rate of about a little under 1.5%. Death rates lag infection rates. The people who are passing away today probably got infected two, three, four weeks ago. So it seems like we may be at about a 1.5% fatality rate, which is not out of line with other countries.

[Mickey]

Finally, some good news

[verb_to_trust]

That poor dog

[Bi_3]

I'll caveat my inexperience, but if I had to bet, I'd say this estimate, written by the head of the NYC Council Health Committee chairman, seems like it may be a realistic assessment. But I don't see how we're going to possibly know this before testing capacity increases.

The real number of deaths in the city at this point is probably more like 15,000 — if you count those who are dying at home undiagnosed or who couldn’t access normal medical care. The number of people who have caught this virus in New York is probably 10 times the official positive test count, which today [Friday] stands at, I think, 117,000. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if we had 1.2 million people who have or have had this virus in New York City. This would give us a death rate of about a little under 1.5%. Death rates lag infection rates. The people who are passing away today probably got infected two, three, four weeks ago. So it seems like we may be at about a 1.5% fatality rate, which is not out of line with other countries.

Gotta be a week old, right? Seems like the antibody tests are pushing things lower than 1.5%. It’s also possible the variant in NYC has a different mortality than other locations.

[PHATJ]

This is awesome. This is what real peaceful protest looks like. If arrests like this one in Idaho continue to take place, we will see much more of this. And if police officers don’t want the situation to get unruly, they’ll either act like these officers did, or they won’t make illegal and asinine arrests to begin with. This entire video is very interesting.

https://prepforthat.com/idaho-protester ... hKNzFdJyGE

[digster]

I'll caveat my inexperience, but if I had to bet, I'd say this estimate, written by the head of the NYC Council Health Committee chairman, seems like it may be a realistic assessment. But I don't see how we're going to possibly know this before testing capacity increases.

The real number of deaths in the city at this point is probably more like 15,000 — if you count those who are dying at home undiagnosed or who couldn’t access normal medical care. The number of people who have caught this virus in New York is probably 10 times the official positive test count, which today [Friday] stands at, I think, 117,000. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if we had 1.2 million people who have or have had this virus in New York City. This would give us a death rate of about a little under 1.5%. Death rates lag infection rates. The people who are passing away today probably got infected two, three, four weeks ago. So it seems like we may be at about a 1.5% fatality rate, which is not out of line with other countries.

Gotta be a week old, right? Seems like the antibody tests are pushing things lower than 1.5%. It’s also possible the variant in NYC has a different mortality than other locations.

The numbers are old, but in speaking about the fatality rate....we'll see what future antibody tests tell us. The methodology to what they did is, for lack of a better word, problematic; though probably the best they could do considering the amount of infected currently in the city.

[Mickey]

Just want to be clear here, Josh you're saying it's good to hold individual officers accountable for their actions, even if those actions have been condoned by the state?

[wease]

This is awesome. This is what real peaceful protest looks like. If arrests like this one in Idaho continue to take place, we will see much more of this. And if police officers don’t want the situation to get unruly, they’ll either act like these officers did, or they won’t make illegal and asinine arrests to begin with. This entire video is very interesting.

https://prepforthat.com/idaho-protester ... hKNzFdJyGE

It’s awesome that they’re protesting because he did his job?