Election 2020

[96583UP]

too much circumstantial evidence against these two rapists already

but can never have enough pomp

[Mickey]

It's June, just wait.

[McParadigm]

[96583UP]

looks like this one's in the bag

nothing could possib-ly go wrong

[McParadigm]

looks like this one's in the bag

nothing could possib-ly go wrong

We can’t take this lead for granted. I hear he’s expecting a crowd of 6 billion in Tulsa.

[wease]

looks like this one's in the bag

nothing could possib-ly go wrong

We can’t take this lead for granted. I hear he’s expecting a crowd of 6 billion in Tulsa.

It’s the biggest crowd in the history of crowds.

[elliseamos]

looks like this one's in the bag

nothing could possib-ly go wrong

We can’t take this lead for granted. I hear he’s expecting a crowd of 6 billion in Tulsa.

It’s the biggest crowd in the history of crowds.

Some, I'm sure, are good people.

[MadTIGERmaN]

looks like this one's in the bag

nothing could possib-ly go wrong

We can’t take this lead for granted. I hear he’s expecting a crowd of 6 billion in Tulsa.

It’s the biggest crowd in the history of crowds.

Some, I'm sure, are good people.

Hes got such a long long history of big crowds with great people...
Go to 3:07

[wease]

looks like this one's in the bag

nothing could possib-ly go wrong

We can’t take this lead for granted. I hear he’s expecting a crowd of 6 billion in Tulsa.

It’s the biggest crowd in the history of crowds.

Some, I'm sure, are good people.

Hes got such a long long history of big crowds with great people...
Go to 3:07

That’s hilarious. He keeps adding to the number.

[digster]

For all the talk about Biden's age and mental acuity, it's way more stunning to watch older videos of Trump. It's the same attitude, bluster and idiocy then as of now, but his ability to form complete, coherent thoughts has completely dissipated.

[Hatfield]

For all the talk about Biden's age and mental acuity, it's way more stunning to watch older videos of Trump. It's the same attitude, bluster and idiocy then as of now, but his ability to form complete, coherent thoughts has completely dissipated.

"fading lights, lost eloquence"

[wease]

For all the talk about Biden's age and mental acuity, it's way more stunning to watch older videos of Trump. It's the same attitude, bluster and idiocy then as of now, but his ability to form complete, coherent thoughts has completely dissipated.

"fading lights, lost eloquence"

Diminished ability to drink from a glass...

[MadTIGERmaN]

reading the comments on that Dan Rather interview from 99 are hilarious.

Anti Trumpers - see, people were calling him a con-man already in 99. His attitude hasnt changed. Hes already saying McCann is not a war hero. Everything weve been saying about him today, was already true in 1999.

Pro Trumpers - The media was already against this great man trying to destroy him. Look at how wrong they were about him. I used to respect Dan Rather but not after seeing this, hes just another fake news anchor.

Its like were watching two totally different interviews.

[Mickey]

From Politico:

‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection

Mostly just rah-rah from the hoopleheads who also think covid is a bad flu, but this stuck out:

At the center of the disconnect between Trump loyalists’ assessment of the state of the race and the one based on public opinion polls is a distrust of polling itself. Republicans see an industry that maliciously oversamples Democrats or under-samples the white, non-college educated voters who are most likely to support Trump. They say it is hard to know who likely voters are this far from the election. And like many Democrats, they suspect Trump supporters disproportionately hang up on pollsters, under-counting his level of support.

Ted Lovdahl, chairman of the Republican Party in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, said he has friends who will tell pollsters “just exactly the opposite of what they feel.”

When he asked one of them why, his friend told him, “I don’t like some of their questions. It’s none of their business what I do.”

[Rob]

Lets own the libs by letting Trump lose badly in the polls. Genius.

[Mickey]

I mean, you could argue that presenting their big wet boy as embattled will have the effect of firing up his base. In a two person race it probably doesn't matter the same way it would in, say, the Dem primary, where downplaying support for Bernie would have wrapped this thing up much sooner. That said, you're right, it's pretty fucking stupid: there's no way it's widespread enough to account for things like Trump being only ahead by 2 in Arkansas, as you and mcp have noted here, his base has almost certainly shrunk from 2016 so their being fired up won't get the job done, and most importantly all these rosy GOP predictions are predicated on the economy coming back BETTER THAN EVER (which, lol). But it does make me wonder about some of the close polling in the battleground states. We know this happened in 2016 too.

[digster]

But isn't the most likely reason 2016 state polls in certain states went slightly awry was that undecideds broke hard for Trump? I've heard the "Trump voters answers in the opposite way" is an anecdotal thing, but I've never seen anything that showed that was actually a factor. Pollsters just not reaching Trump voters seems more possible.

But if it is undecideds that made the outcome different than the polling, that's not a good sign for Trump. The pool of undecideds is smaller this time (Trump's no longer an unknown), and the undecideds that are there are going for Biden.

This is all talking about the race as it is in June, so there's time for things to change. But I think less time than everyone believes.

[McParadigm]

And like many Democrats, they suspect Trump supporters disproportionately hang up on pollsters

If supporters of one team in a high interest two team national election were hanging up on pollsters...

A. Wouldn’t pollsters be talking about how much harder it is to get responses this year?

B. Wouldn’t that leave the demographic part of the results drastically skewed Democrat, forcing them to either continue pursuing heterogeneous data or scrap the poll?

C. Since demographic information is included in the reports, wouldn’t anybody who looks…at all…be able to see on the surface that their sample is skewed?

D. Wouldn’t we see that indicated in an unprecedented difference between national presidential polls and state level Senate polls?

[McParadigm]

The answer won’t surprise you

[doug rr]