Democracy Deferred: End of 2020 Election Prediction Thread

[Mickey]

My problem with both of those picks is that, if the standard is a concession speech or a dropping of legal challenges (rather than the ruling of an independent authority), I have a hard time picturing Trump going quietly in the face of logical stimuli. I think mid December is the window, I just think it'll happen on a random Thursday afternoon.

[4/5]

Glad I made a thread that broke 4/5.

Yup.

I still don't know how to formulate a guess for this. My guess:
Biden will win by a wide margin
Trump never concedes (note: I originally wrote 'succeeds' here and the typo was almost too good to fix)
It will be very obvious on Wednesday that Biden has won/will win
Trump launches legal challenges, voter fraud investigations, Twitter rampages, etc.
A few states will struggle to count their votes, delaying unofficial results a little bit
The EC vote will take place on time
Congress will certify the election
Trump will Tweet and talk about stolen election, he will question whether inauguration day should be pushed back
Trump issues XOs and instructions to departments to obstruct planning and logistics for Biden's inauguration
Biden gets sworn in on 1/20/21 with a few lingering legal challenges still open

[Simple Torture]

Glad I made a thread that broke 4/5.

Yup.

I still don't know how to formulate a guess for this. My guess:
Biden will win by a wide margin
Trump never concedes (note: I originally wrote 'succeeds' here and the typo was almost too good to fix)
It will be very obvious on Wednesday that Biden has won/will win
Trump launches legal challenges, voter fraud investigations, Twitter rampages, etc.
A few states will struggle to count their votes, delaying unofficial results a little bit
The EC vote will take place on time
Congress will certify the election
Trump will Tweet and talk about stolen election, he will question whether inauguration day should be pushed back
Trump issues XOs and instructions to departments to obstruct planning and logistics for Biden's inauguration
Biden gets sworn in on 1/20/21 with a few lingering legal challenges still open

In the situation you describe (EC votes on time and congress certifies on schedule), I believe we should call 12/14 the "end of the election." If, however, the certification is delayed for any reason, I think the end would be pushed back into January.

[Birds in Hell]

Its happening already guys!

Jacinda Ardern always reminds me of early 90s Dave Grohl.

[Mickey]

Glad I made a thread that broke 4/5.

Yup.

I still don't know how to formulate a guess for this. My guess:
Biden will win by a wide margin
Trump never concedes (note: I originally wrote 'succeeds' here and the typo was almost too good to fix)
It will be very obvious on Wednesday that Biden has won/will win
Trump launches legal challenges, voter fraud investigations, Twitter rampages, etc.
A few states will struggle to count their votes, delaying unofficial results a little bit
The EC vote will take place on time
Congress will certify the election
Trump will Tweet and talk about stolen election, he will question whether inauguration day should be pushed back
Trump issues XOs and instructions to departments to obstruct planning and logistics for Biden's inauguration
Biden gets sworn in on 1/20/21 with a few lingering legal challenges still open

The wrench I see with this timeline is--what type of voter is more likely to turn out on election day? It's quite possible Trump is leading in some key states that he ultimately loses whenever mail-in ballots are counted. I don't know if this would affect the Electoral College count, but I expect to wake up through much of November not knowing who won.

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Mickey]

I don't know what that means.

[Norah]

Its happening already guys!

Jacinda Ardern always reminds me of early 90s Dave Grohl.

I will never not see this now.

[4/5]

The wrench I see with this timeline is--what type of voter is more likely to turn out on election day? It's quite possible Trump is leading in some key states that he ultimately loses whenever mail-in ballots are counted. I don't know if this would affect the Electoral College count, but I expect to wake up through much of November not knowing who won.

Could be. Guess that depends on the state and how early they accept mail-in ballots and how the counting process goes. Also, if Trump loses by as much as I think he's going to, I don't think he'll have the appearance of a lead on election night. I imagine that anti-Trump voters will be sending in their ballots very, very quickly so hopefully those votes will be counted by election night.

I also wonder how early voting access will affect this. It's not like everybody is shut-in, most people are still going to the grocery store, etc. So if a state has multiple weeks of early voting I could see a lot of people voting early in person for fear of problems with mail-in ballots. But I could definitely be wrong about that.

[Mickey]

The wrench I see with this timeline is--what type of voter is more likely to turn out on election day? It's quite possible Trump is leading in some key states that he ultimately loses whenever mail-in ballots are counted. I don't know if this would affect the Electoral College count, but I expect to wake up through much of November not knowing who won.

Could be. Guess that depends on the state and how early they accept mail-in ballots and how the counting process goes. Also, if Trump loses by as much as I think he's going to, I don't think he'll have the appearance of a lead on election night. I imagine that anti-Trump voters will be sending in their ballots very, very quickly so hopefully those votes will be counted by election night.

I also wonder how early voting access will affect this. It's not like everybody is shut-in, most people are still going to the grocery store, etc. So if a state has multiple weeks of early voting I could see a lot of people voting early in person for fear of problems with mail-in ballots. But I could definitely be wrong about that.

Could be. I'm really just spitballing here, on account of the fact that I ultimately have no sense of what will happen.

[4/5]

Could be. I'm really just spitballing here, on account of the fact that I ultimately have no sense of what will happen.

Same. For the sake of my sanity I'm really just hoping that it isn't legitimately in doubt for an extended time.

[Bi_3]

Could be. I'm really just spitballing here, on account of the fact that I ultimately have no sense of what will happen.

Same. For the sake of my sanity I'm really just hoping that it isn't legitimately in doubt for an extended time.

Stop taking the piss. You know that won’t happen.

[96583UP]

Its happening already guys!

Jacinda Ardern always reminds me of early 90s Dave Grohl.

I will never not see this now.

who would you rather bang?

[Simple Torture]

Its happening already guys!

Jacinda Ardern always reminds me of early 90s Dave Grohl.

I will never not see this now.

who would you rather bang?

*whom

[4/5]

Could be. I'm really just spitballing here, on account of the fact that I ultimately have no sense of what will happen.

Same. For the sake of my sanity I'm really just hoping that it isn't legitimately in doubt for an extended time.

Stop taking the piss. You know that won’t happen.

Hey I gave my prediction which is that it'll be obvious the next morning. I'm just saying I really hope I'm right because a 6+ week 2000-like debacle is not something I want experience this year.

[Bi_3]

Could be. I'm really just spitballing here, on account of the fact that I ultimately have no sense of what will happen.

Same. For the sake of my sanity I'm really just hoping that it isn't legitimately in doubt for an extended time.

Stop taking the piss. You know that won’t happen.

Hey I gave my prediction which is that it'll be obvious the next morning. I'm just saying I really hope I'm right because a 6+ week 2000-like debacle is not something I want experience this year.

Counterpoint: Let's get it out of the way now so we are good for the next 20 years.

[Simple Torture]

I feel like "The Aftermath" could've been a good title for this thread, too!

[epilogue]

Kayleigh McEnany: "The President has always said he'll see what happens and make a determination in the aftermath."

First time she hasn't lied?

[Bi_3]

Kayleigh McEnany: "The President has always said he'll see what happens and make a determination in the aftermath."

First time she hasn't lied?

There was also that time she said "I brought Straw-ber-itas, ya'll!"

[epilogue]

Kayleigh McEnany: "The President has always said he'll see what happens and make a determination in the aftermath."

First time she hasn't lied?

There was also that time she said "I brought Straw-ber-itas, ya'll!"