Democracy Deferred: End of 2020 Election Prediction Thread

[Strat]

More like The Bad Show. god

Seriously

[JuanHamm]

More like The Bad Show. god

Seriously

Yeah, bad opinion guys

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Mickey]

My Boring Apocalypse

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Mickey]

My So-Called Afterlife

[Simple Torture]

Official Guesses

November 3, 2020 - 96583UP
November 4, 2020 - liebzz
November 5, 2020 - doug
November 6, 2020 - Mickey
November 7, 2020 - tree_
November 9, 2020 - Rob
November 10, 2020 - ruddo
November 11, 2020 - Jammer XCI
November 12, 2020 - blueviper
November 15, 2020 - Bi_3
November 20, 2020 - simple torture
November 24, 2020 - wease
December 4, 2020 - Argo
December 11, 2020 - chud
December 14, 2020 - Green Habit
December 25, 2020 - Jorge
January 20, 2021 - ellis
February 14, 2021 - burt

[Mickey]

You can probably cross off November 4th too, given how PA is going

[BurtReynolds]

This thread just got a lot more interesting.

[Simple Torture]

You can probably cross off November 4th too, given how PA is going

23 1/4 hours to go, baby.

[BurtReynolds]

[BurtReynolds]

and like clockwork...

[Mickey]

Like clockwork indeed.

[BurtReynolds]

narratives have already formed and are solidifying.

[Rob]

One narrative is - the predictable one.

[Simple Torture]

As we tick towards midday on the east coast the day after the election, some reminders about the rules here:

3. In the simplest scenario, we'll count the loser's concession speech as the end of the election, as that definitively marks the time when the campaign for the presidency is over...We're working with the major two party candidates here, so it's either Trump or Biden. I don't care if Vermin Supreme continues to contest the results.

4. If there's no concession speech from the eventual loser, things get dicier (and more interesting), but we can let history be our guide. A contingent election in the House of Representatives (as in 1801 and 1825; see below) would mark the deciding date of an election if it came to that. If things get wrapped up in the courts, a final decision by the Supreme Court would decide the election in the case of no concession speech (so if Gore hadn't conceded in 2000, the election would've "ended" a day earlier). If Congress got involved, such as in 1876, we'd have to wait for the outcome of that to figure out what counts as the election's "last day." The absolute farthest we will go would be inauguration day; no matter what happens before it, it'll be called once a new President is sworn in (currently scheduled for 1/20/21). If the end date is unclear, I will convene a conference of RMers who will help decide; however, just like on RuPaul's Drag Race, my decision will be final.

If it wasn't clear from my original post, my reasoning behind this is that we're trying to predict, basically, when the campaigns for the presidency end and when the transition to either Trump's second turn or to the Biden administration begins. A concessions speech de facto ends someone's campaign, so that would be the easiest marker. There certainly are scenarios where either candidate could call for a recount in certain states, where those recounts might happen or not, where there could be court cases or acts of congress that muddy the waters, etc. Honestly, I'm more excited about the possibilities there and having to call an RM Great Council to determine when the campaigns actually end.

So as the final few states creep towards 99% of their votes being tallied, remember that this will not end if networks begin to call the race or if a candidate declares victory. If we get a concession speech, it's over, for sure--but if one of the campaigns demands a recount somewhere, or if something starts getting wrapped up in the courts, etc., we'll have to wait for at least those results before thinking about declaring one of us the victor. Stay tuned!

[spike]

Are Dem leaders getting loud about this to counteract the Trump noise, or are they respectfully standing by waiting for democracy to do its thing? Because they need to be getting loud; the next four years starts now.

[Simple Torture]

Btw, the way things are shaping up early, I like the odds for those of us who picked late November.

[elliseamos]

I'm good with my spot.

[BurtReynolds]

Do we still have hanging chads? Please let there be hanging chads.