Election 2020

[verb_to_trust]

NY Times on Arizona:
We received more votes from Pinal County. According to turnout estimates, around 440,000 votes remain in counties won by Trump in 2016. Clinton 2016 counties have around 80,000 votes left to report.

Uh oh. What was the Trump margin in those counties in 2016?

It's bullshit. Arizona is blue

Isn’t it strange that counted votes went from 98% to 86%? Not bullshit.

Fine. Worry away if you want

[B]

NY Times on Arizona:
We received more votes from Pinal County. According to turnout estimates, around 440,000 votes remain in counties won by Trump in 2016. Clinton 2016 counties have around 80,000 votes left to report.

Uh oh. What was the Trump margin in those counties in 2016?

It's bullshit. Arizona is blue

Isn’t it strange that counted votes went from 98% to 86%? Not bullshit.

Republicans are trying to STEAL the election! Take that shit to the Supreme Court!

[Mickey]

No idea who will win but watching woke white women try to rationalize why they lost more minority votes is great fun.

And polls are fucking trash and we should never speak of them again.

This is a common reactionary argument from people in their protracted adolescence who have made "I don't trust the media" their entire personality, but the polling aggregate seems to have been broadly correct on a state level and will probably be correct on a popular vote too. If you look at the eve-of-election averages, Trump was ahead in Iowa, Texas, Ohio, and North Carolina where he won (or is on track to do so), and Biden was ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, where it now looks like he'll narrowly win. Some of them seem to have had the margins wrong--Ohio turned out to be less close than imagined, maybe Michigan is closer than they thought. But they're also still counting and certifying, so they might end up being basically right on that as well. Georgia seems too up in the air to know either way, so as far as I can tell there's really only one state where the polling average was flat-out wrong: Florida, where the polls were wrong in 2018 too (though it was always predicted as a close race). So perhaps the polls have a Florida problem. Aside from that, there's no real basis for this claim, not that I've seen anyway--and all of this data is freely available on RealClearPolitics if you'd like to introduce any texture into your blinkered worldview.

[BurtReynolds]

Mississippi voted for medical marijuana.

Florida raised the minimum wage to 15$.

Oregon decriminalized small amounts of everything.

California voted no on their bullshit race law. I hear they are actually pretty conservative when it comes to ballot propositions.


All in all, I'm content.

[BurtReynolds]

No idea who will win but watching woke white women try to rationalize why they lost more minority votes is great fun.

And polls are fucking trash and we should never speak of them again.

This is a common reactionary argument from people in their protracted adolescence who have made "I don't trust the media" their entire personality, but the polling aggregate seems to have been broadly correct on a state level and will probably be correct on a popular vote too. If you look at the eve-of-election averages, Trump was ahead in Iowa, Texas, Ohio, and North Carolina where he won (or is on track to do so), and Biden was ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, where it now looks like he'll narrowly win. Some of them seem to have had the margins wrong--Ohio turned out to be less close than imagined, maybe Michigan is closer than they thought. But they're also still counting and certifying, so they might end up being basically right on that as well. Georgia seems too up in the air to know either way, so as far as I can tell there's really only one state where the polling average was flat-out wrong: Florida, where the polls were wrong in 2018 too (though it was always predicted as a close race). So perhaps the polls have a Florida problem. Aside from that, there's no real basis for this claim, not that I've seen anyway--and all of this data is freely available on RealClearPolitics if you'd like to introduce any texture into your blinkered worldview.

Broken record. Getting the margins wrong is getting it wrong. And funny how the error is usually in the same direction.

[surfndestroy]

The Dems may need to address if they desire to attract the fiscally liberal and socially conservative voter. Fiscally conservative is a nice selling point when in opposition, it continually gives you something to hammer away at, and it is very convenient to shed when in power. Can the same be done socially?

[Mickey]

No idea who will win but watching woke white women try to rationalize why they lost more minority votes is great fun.

And polls are fucking trash and we should never speak of them again.

This is a common reactionary argument from people in their protracted adolescence who have made "I don't trust the media" their entire personality, but the polling aggregate seems to have been broadly correct on a state level and will probably be correct on a popular vote too. If you look at the eve-of-election averages, Trump was ahead in Iowa, Texas, Ohio, and North Carolina where he won (or is on track to do so), and Biden was ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, where it now looks like he'll narrowly win. Some of them seem to have had the margins wrong--Ohio turned out to be less close than imagined, maybe Michigan is closer than they thought. But they're also still counting and certifying, so they might end up being basically right on that as well. Georgia seems too up in the air to know either way, so as far as I can tell there's really only one state where the polling average was flat-out wrong: Florida, where the polls were wrong in 2018 too (though it was always predicted as a close race). So perhaps the polls have a Florida problem. Aside from that, there's no real basis for this claim, not that I've seen anyway--and all of this data is freely available on RealClearPolitics if you'd like to introduce any texture into your blinkered worldview.

Broken record. Getting the margins wrong is getting it wrong. And funny how the error is usually in the same direction.

You missed the part where most of the states in question are still counting.

[Mickey]

In any case, if the polling average overwhelmingly points to the correct winner but has the margins wrong (which, again, neither you nor I know yet!), the normal, sober response would be to recognize that polling is largely accurate but can still be improved. The dumbguy response is "polls are trash and they don't tell us anything." If you paid attention to the actual polls instead of the caricature you made up in your head, and recognized that polling averages, not individual polls, are where the real information is, you would have known before the election that we were looking at basically a close race which would be decided in the former rust belt and sunbelt, but that in all likelihood was going to go to Biden because of those blue wall states. That's what happening. Sorry that's not enough chaos for you.

[Strat]

Yea Wisconsin !

Tommy Bartlett’s robot world here I come !

[BurtReynolds]

No idea who will win but watching woke white women try to rationalize why they lost more minority votes is great fun.

And polls are fucking trash and we should never speak of them again.

This is a common reactionary argument from people in their protracted adolescence who have made "I don't trust the media" their entire personality, but the polling aggregate seems to have been broadly correct on a state level and will probably be correct on a popular vote too. If you look at the eve-of-election averages, Trump was ahead in Iowa, Texas, Ohio, and North Carolina where he won (or is on track to do so), and Biden was ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, where it now looks like he'll narrowly win. Some of them seem to have had the margins wrong--Ohio turned out to be less close than imagined, maybe Michigan is closer than they thought. But they're also still counting and certifying, so they might end up being basically right on that as well. Georgia seems too up in the air to know either way, so as far as I can tell there's really only one state where the polling average was flat-out wrong: Florida, where the polls were wrong in 2018 too (though it was always predicted as a close race). So perhaps the polls have a Florida problem. Aside from that, there's no real basis for this claim, not that I've seen anyway--and all of this data is freely available on RealClearPolitics if you'd like to introduce any texture into your blinkered worldview.

Broken record. Getting the margins wrong is getting it wrong. And funny how the error is usually in the same direction.

You missed the part where most of the states in question are still counting.

Wisconsin polling was 7-8 point in favor of Biden. He's up by .7 right now. i don't know how one could conclude that they got it right just because Biden is winning. That's pure cope.

Can you at least admit that some people *cough* McP *cough* relied on these polls far too much? That assuming this would be a landslide was a bit off? I'm as much critical of the way these polls are used to shape opinion as the polls themselves.

[Mickey]

No idea who will win but watching woke white women try to rationalize why they lost more minority votes is great fun.

And polls are fucking trash and we should never speak of them again.

This is a common reactionary argument from people in their protracted adolescence who have made "I don't trust the media" their entire personality, but the polling aggregate seems to have been broadly correct on a state level and will probably be correct on a popular vote too. If you look at the eve-of-election averages, Trump was ahead in Iowa, Texas, Ohio, and North Carolina where he won (or is on track to do so), and Biden was ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, where it now looks like he'll narrowly win. Some of them seem to have had the margins wrong--Ohio turned out to be less close than imagined, maybe Michigan is closer than they thought. But they're also still counting and certifying, so they might end up being basically right on that as well. Georgia seems too up in the air to know either way, so as far as I can tell there's really only one state where the polling average was flat-out wrong: Florida, where the polls were wrong in 2018 too (though it was always predicted as a close race). So perhaps the polls have a Florida problem. Aside from that, there's no real basis for this claim, not that I've seen anyway--and all of this data is freely available on RealClearPolitics if you'd like to introduce any texture into your blinkered worldview.

Broken record. Getting the margins wrong is getting it wrong. And funny how the error is usually in the same direction.

You missed the part where most of the states in question are still counting.

Wisconsin polling was 7-8 point in favor of Biden. He's up by .7 right now. i don't know how one could conclude that they got it right just because Biden is winning. That's pure cope.

Can you at least admit that some people *cough* McP *cough* relied on these polls far too much? That assuming this would be a landslide was a bit off? I'm as much critical of the way these polls are used to shape opinion as the polls themselves.

As I said in my other post, if you were paying attention it was clear that it would be a close race. Any delusions about a blowout were, well, delusions.

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Mickey]

Nate Silver sucks ass, no doubt.

[BurtReynolds]

The Dems may need to address if they desire to attract the fiscally liberal and socially conservative voter. Fiscally conservative is a nice selling point when in opposition, it continually gives you something to hammer away at, and it is very convenient to shed when in power. Can the same be done socially?

I think fiscal conservatism is all but dead thanks to Republicans completely lying about their fiscal conservatism for decades. I hope the same will be true for the social leftism that has infected so much of liberal thought. Nobody likes this shit except rich white people and grifters.

[Mickey]

Just say (((cultural Marxism))), we know what you mean.

[BurtReynolds]

I simultaneously trust polling averages as a decent indicator of results, and want to see Nate Silver working at a Walmart.

I wouldn't say they are astrology, but it's clear people trust them a lot more than they should.

[BurtReynolds]

Just say (((cultural Marxism))), we know what you mean.

yes please quintuple down on the "if you don't like woke identity politics then you are a racist/anti-semite/nazi/bigot" thing. it's working so well.

[Mickey]

Just say (((cultural Marxism))), we know what you mean.

yes please quintuple down on the "if you don't like woke identity politics then you are a racist/anti-semite/nazi/bigot" thing. it's working so well.

I can say with full confidence that I am not trying to sway you.

[B]

I get people not trusting the polls, but what other choice do we have? Should we have been walking around licking our fingers and feeling for the wind?

[Mickey]

I vote for a landslide!

Same!

*BZZZT* Wrong!