Official Prediction Thread

[Simple Torture]

Sure hope I'm wrong about Trump. My prediction about a woman being elected president could come due sooner rather than later.

[4/5]

Bottom paged.

Header post finally updated!

A lot more misses than makes so far. There's a bunch of election-related predictions that will be coming due in the next few days so there should be handful of hits about to come through.

There are a few predictions that I'm either not familiar with or I'm not sure how we judge it. Like, was the wall funded by 2020? 371 miles of wall have been built, though most of that is replacing old walls/fencing. Idk how to judge this one.

Not sure how to judge trag's: "States will reopen out of economic necessity/lack of Federal support. Distancing and the ability to work from home will become a pleasure of the haves, while illness and death will become the reality for have-nots (and the ignorant and stupid)." The spirit of this feels right, but it's not as quantifiable as other predictions.

Argo, 4/5, Green Habit, 96583UP all have 1 correct prediction.
Argo and Mickey both have 1/2 a right prediction, but missed on the main idea of the prediction.
Simple Torture missed with his overly precise prediction of RBG's death, but the spirit of his prediction was sadly right on.

Also gonna get some work done. Anybody know if Trag's prediction about mass shootings was right?

[Mickey]

I think trag's reopening prediction is essentially right.

[4/5]

Sure hope I'm wrong about Trump.

Really hope I'm right.

Kinda like our respective RBG predictions.

[doug rr]

don't forget my civil war prediction..i have may got the date wrong but......

[4/5]

don't forget my civil war prediction..i have may got the date wrong but......

I have your civil war after the election prediction in there. You had mentioned it a couple times before without a time frame I think.

Enjoy surfing Vancouver!

[Mickey]

Putting it here. Biden is going to lose by more than 77 electoral college votes.

Yeah things were looking pretty dodgy for Biden before coronovirus, couple more weeks and Bernie would have had him I’m sure

Bernie is by far the most pro-Trump reelection politician in DC.

There's a prediction thread so maybe I should put it there, but here goes: Biden is going to lose to Trump by a wider electoral college margin than Hillary did.

In my defense I could not have imagined a COVID response this inept, but I'm definitely going to eat shit on this one.

If you think about it, I was technically correct to predict that my previous prediction would be wrong.

[simple schoolboy]

Putting it here. Biden is going to lose by more than 77 electoral college votes.

Yeah things were looking pretty dodgy for Biden before coronovirus, couple more weeks and Bernie would have had him I’m sure

Bernie is by far the most pro-Trump reelection politician in DC.

There's a prediction thread so maybe I should put it there, but here goes: Biden is going to lose to Trump by a wider electoral college margin than Hillary did.

In my defense I could not have imagined a COVID response this inept, but I'm definitely going to eat shit on this one.

If you think about it, I was technically correct to predict that my previous prediction would be wrong.

Technically correct is the best kind of correct.

[4/5]

Putting it here. Biden is going to lose by more than 77 electoral college votes.

Yeah things were looking pretty dodgy for Biden before coronovirus, couple more weeks and Bernie would have had him I’m sure

Bernie is by far the most pro-Trump reelection politician in DC.

There's a prediction thread so maybe I should put it there, but here goes: Biden is going to lose to Trump by a wider electoral college margin than Hillary did.

In my defense I could not have imagined a COVID response this inept, but I'm definitely going to eat shit on this one.

If you think about it, I was technically correct to predict that my previous prediction would be wrong.

Header post updated!

Spoiler: show

Mickey:
(some time after 4/8/20) I'm definitely going to eat shit on this one.

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Mickey]

I would say yes but you have to pick one of the wildfires, it can't be ALL FIRES anymore than it can be ALL HURRICANES

[Mickey]

Dems lose the presidency in 2024.

[BurtReynolds]

one massive environmental catastrophe (100K+ dead or displaced

Do the wildfires qualify?

yeah

[Norah]

Dems lose the presidency in 2024.

Dems win the Presidency in 2024 but not with an incumbent.

[Mickey]

Fuck now I gotta keep posting here for four more years to prove that I'm right.

[Norah]

oh the horror

[Mickey]

In my mind, incumbent would include a VP who has assumed the presidency, but would not include a primary challenger.

[Norah]

I'm thinking more on the lines of the incumbent decides not to seek the nomination in 2024.

[Mickey]

What are the rules on that? If Biden just plans to step down after his term, would Kamala have to win a primary?

[Norah]

I assume so. How did it work in 1968?