McParadigm wrote:evenslow wrote:McParadigm wrote:Tuolumne wrote:What do you think about how Sirens 5:40 length effects the numbers? Hard to get more plays when the song is twice as long as Just Breathe. If it gets close to the same plays as just breathe, it would fill twice the amount of radio airtime, right?
It's a factor, but it's more of an asterisk than a key decider. Long songs can and often do pull very equal numbers to shorter ones at rock and adult radio...the two places this song is aimed. All it really means is that it will tend to "feel" like it's getting more plays than it really is.
Also, is there a new context to view these numbers in? For instance, JB was 4 years ago and listening habits have no doubt changed. Do we factor in things like YouTube, Last.fm, Spotify, etc. more than we would have then? If so, is there a way to quantify that?
I noted way back when Manners came out (and Mike's comment above goes into this) that radio isn't so much a
determiner of success anymore as it is the most effective
barometer for determining how a song is doing in general. Streaming and download media data still correlates very consistently with radio listening patterns, so knowing how a song is doing at radio can help to understand how it is being received in general outside the fanbase.
Case in point...Mike mentions last.fm. The Fixer and Just Breathe, both genuine radio hits last time out, are the 14th and 5th most listened to Pearl Jam songs by last.fm users for the last six months, respectively. Radio success was indicative of their impact on casual listeners.
Good stuff. Such an interesting time in the music industry, where it's really hard to make heads or tails on anything. He showed some numbers w/ Arctic Monkeys topping Miley Cyrus, but I also know that Miley Cyrus' new song has got some crazy number of youtube views (something like 150 million or something). I see other pop stars get tens of millions of view, but the album sales are tiny in comparison. So singles and album artists seem to be going in much different ways.
To comapre PJ, I look at other recent releases by either their contemporaries or other artists that are in their age or genre bracket. Generally, I compare PJ to their true competition. NIN, QOTSA, Arcade Fire, and Kings of Leon are who I am looking at to compare. NIN and QOTSA are 2 who debut high on the charts and then drop like a rock. KOL seem to start slower this time, and Arcade Fire are probably going to be the hot ones. I predict PJ does decent, with Arcade Fire being the big gun this year. It's their year.
Ultimately, every artist in the industry is going for what PJ already has: Selling the new album to their established audience, and playing them to packed audiences who appreciate it. PJ has sort of won that battle, and have kind of created the model to artists to follow. The big question is can they include the more casual listeners like the ones who bought Backspacer 5-6 months out, or even newer fans who are into the Black Keys and Arcade Fire. If they can expand their reach to those types of fans, who are good music loving fans in general, that'd be a huge win for them.
great song though, you will love it
