The Future of the GOP

[wease]

So all the GOP imbeciles vowing to impeach Biden after they win back the house and the senate are really missing an important aspect. Kamala would succeed him as president. If they are successful and actually remove him from office, do they really think Trump would then magically become president again?

[McParadigm]

Performative retribution

[B]

Be sweet if they impeached him, and he just resigned. "I'm too old for this shit, enjoy your first female President!"

[elliseamos]

Be sweet if... he just resigned. "I'm too old for this shit, enjoy your first female President!"

[McParadigm]

So what’s the post-mortem on this midterm?

Why wasn’t the party or its messaging better able to connect with voters? What probably worked? What most likely didn’t?

[4/5]

The moderate suburbanites are in charge now?

[Bi_3]

So what’s the post-mortem on this midterm?

Why wasn’t the party or its messaging better able to connect with voters? What probably worked? What most likely didn’t?

First impression: It was the push against early voting that did them in. Mail-ins were dominated by blue in the close races (GA, PA, AZ) and you're not gonna overcome that by pressuring your elderly and working class fanbase to stand in line for hours on a weekday to avoid imaginary fraud.

[McParadigm]

The moderate suburbanites are in charge now?

I do think this is a part of it, mixed in with the fact that social media has reached a stage where local politics is always national. It used to be that if a target district leaned heavily enough in your favor, you could put up candidates whose only purpose was to appeal to the base. But now people like Herschel Walker and Keri Lake become national news, getting more attention than people actually in Congress.

When people are getting exposed to that every day, it’s hard to sell indie voters in moderate spaces that you too are moderate. Those people now begin affecting your brand before they begin winning elections.

First impression: It was the push against early voting that did them in. Mail-ins were dominated by blue in the close races (GA, PA, AZ) and you're not gonna overcome that by pressuring your elderly and working class fanbase to stand in line for hours on a weekday to avoid imaginary fraud.

That’s interesting. I haven’t looked yet to see how their performance relative to expectations differed across states with different voting rules. Didn’t Michigan only just now pass early voting? Michigan seems to be a place where they disappointed expectations.

Your post is also more or less agnostic about their messaging and candidate selection. I don’t recall the history exactly, but I’m pretty sure this is going to be the first midterm in a very long time where independent voters favored the party in power. What happened there?

[Bi_3]

Updated data shows I was wrong about early voting in AZ, that seems split at least by affiliation: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-e ... early-vote

[spike]

Keep letting Trump pick shit candidates

[Chris_H_2]

the republicans need to do some real soul searching, if they performed below average (in some instances, well below) during a midterm when the opposing party traditionally picks up about 29 house seats and 6-7 senate seats, while inflation is the highest it's been in 40 years, then they're doing something wrong.

they can't continue to embrace and be beholden to the extreme fringes of the party. it doesn't resonate. also, given the results in Michigan where they flipped control of the legislature for the first time since the early 80's, dobbs was definitely a motivating factor.

[Bi_3]

This guy gets it, now the red team will have to follow the blue playbook:

[McParadigm]

This guy gets it, now the red team will have to follow the blue playbook:

I personally would favor a Republican embrace of early voting, but I think they would gain more by self-reflecting about how their red meat messaging is being received by moderates than they would by worrying over when people vote.

[Rob]

This guy gets it, now the red team will have to follow the blue playbook:

I personally would favor a Republican embrace of early voting, but I think they would gain more by self-reflecting about how their red meat messaging is being received by moderates than they would by worrying over when people vote.

Yes, agree with McP. We heard a lot about “trump derangement syndrome” but “own the libs” preceded that and it’s not fundamentally different (and kind of worse). Maybe that strategy is catching up with the general public and losing steam. We can hope.

Here in CT, part of New England which is a place where republicans can win the gubernatorial election, Dems won their 4th (at least?) term in a row. Now, our governor was actually non controversial and many gop supporters I know conceded he navigated Covid and all that just fine. It’s hard to really hate the guy… still, his challenger ran against him last time, lost, and his message this time was the same. And… he lost again. This is the gop these days. Double down on culture war, no new ideas… fingers crossed.

I do hope they reform. Dems on their own will f it all up.

[Bi_3]

This guy gets it, now the red team will have to follow the blue playbook:

I personally would favor a Republican embrace of early voting, but I think they would gain more by self-reflecting about how their red meat messaging is being received by moderates than they would by worrying over when people vote.

Yes, agree with McP. We heard a lot about “trump derangement syndrome” but “own the libs” preceded that and it’s not fundamentally different (and kind of worse). Maybe that strategy is catching up with the general public and losing steam. We can hope.

Here in CT, part of New England which is a place where republicans can win the gubernatorial election, Dems won their 4th (at least?) term in a row. Now, our governor was actually non controversial and many gop supporters I know conceded he navigated Covid and all that just fine. It’s hard to really hate the guy… still, his challenger ran against him last time, lost, and his message this time was the same. And… he lost again. This is the gop these days. Double down on culture war, no new ideas… fingers crossed.

I do hope they reform. Dems on their own will f it all up.

No doubt it's better for humanity if they improve their messaging, and I agree the results would probably be different if they had just allowed for rape/incest exceptions in the abortion laws, but I think the idea is to capture all of the zealots who will vote red no matter what the platform is so that you don't lose out on easy votes. Look at AZ:




By moving more of the in-person votes to early/absentee votes, they not only shorten the long lines at the polling places that probably drove thousands of on election day voters away (or any one of a million reasons why they couldn't vote that day), they give themselves two more advantages: the opportunity to micro-target voters (like Obama did so well in 2008/2012) and they insulate themselves from last minute fuck ups on the campaign as folks who have voted early can't vote again.

TLDR: make your free throws

[simple schoolboy]

The midterms were apparently a repudiation of Trumpism, but all I hear for an alternative is paens for the dignity of McCain. What does the McCain GOP offer other than foreign misadventure and tax cuts? Vague references to entitlement reform without tackling cost of living increases?

A less Trumpy (but consistent with Trump rhetoric) industrial policy that involves actual onshoring seems like a national defense and economic necessity. That either party would actually undertake it in any way that wasn't exclusively handouts to cronies seems unthinkable, so I still don't know what the future of a (non-Trumpy) GOP is.

The bipartisan NoVA consensus seems to be pissing off China while relying on them for all of our industrial inputs except for certain high end chips, while we rapidly retire VLS capacity and have no plans to replace them.

We will continue to ensure that environmental consultants and engineers are at full employment while our infrastructure and quality of life outside the coastal corridors crumbles.

[McParadigm]

So that’s one vote for “harvest the base more efficiently,” and one vote for which direction not to change in.

[BurtReynolds]

Seems amazingly simple: Rally around DeSantis. Of course, Trump will probably have to croak first.

[elliseamos]

Not sure if it answers your question, McP, but can anybody tell if newly drawn districts AND open-primary-democrat supported GOP candidates skewed things?

[Bi_3]

Seems amazingly simple: Rally around DeSantis. Of course, Trump will probably have to croak first.