Extreme Makeover: Post-Globalization Edition

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[spike]

He's made some pretty recent claims about Russian Nat Gas/ Oil well heads/pipes freezing up due to condensate. Might be specific enough to be falsifiable.

I was like Bama students ain’t that smart!

[simple schoolboy]

He's made some pretty recent claims about Russian Nat Gas/ Oil well heads/pipes freezing up due to condensate. Might be specific enough to be falsifiable.

I was like Bama students ain’t that smart!

Not to cast shade at state schools. His whole talk is about how (insert your state name*) is uniquely positioned to thrive in the coming economic upheaval while the europoors freeze in their hovels and the Chicoms cease to exist as a nation.

*I would be surprised if he hasn't done this at least once in every state outside of the Northeast.

[Coach]

Mac Jones could help with globalization.

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[simple schoolboy]

Politico: Taiwan’s Tech King to Nancy Pelosi: U.S. Is in Over Its Head
“Fifty billion dollars – well, that’s a good start,” quipped the 91-year-old Morris Chang, warning that Washington’s new bipartisan industrial policy may not add up.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/1 ... y-00082646

Zeihan makes it clear that China will see a significant decline in their capacity to finish microchip production, so this all makes sense.

It's still not clear that Taiwan has the will to stay independent. Enough of their population might just want to be Chinese.

If not a full on invasion, China could pull off a blockade ala cuban missile crisis and we would have limited recourses. If they capture those fabs intact and there's nothing stood up in the US that can make equivalent chips how could we compel the Dutch to go along with us?

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[simple schoolboy]

Politico: Taiwan’s Tech King to Nancy Pelosi: U.S. Is in Over Its Head
“Fifty billion dollars – well, that’s a good start,” quipped the 91-year-old Morris Chang, warning that Washington’s new bipartisan industrial policy may not add up.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/1 ... y-00082646

Zeihan makes it clear that China will see a significant decline in their capacity to finish microchip production, so this all makes sense.

It's still not clear that Taiwan has the will to stay independent. Enough of their population might just want to be Chinese.

If not a full on invasion, China could pull off a blockade ala cuban missile crisis and we would have limited recourses. If they capture those fabs intact and there's nothing stood up in the US that can make equivalent chips how could we compel the Dutch to go along with us?

Update on this:

Rattled by China, U.S. and allies are beefing up defenses in the Pacific
But ‘everything needs to go faster,’ says Indo-Pacific command’s top admiral

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... eterrence/

Zeihan suggests that a Dutch/UK economic partnership makes a lot of sense for both parties, and that a UK/North America partnership makes a lot of sense too… UK is completely screwed on their own, but could leverage their military forces for safeguarding trade, and their tech workforce to stay in the game where they can.

As for your Q: re: US chip manufacturing, he’d say that the future is:

1. America continues to buy what it wants in the open marketplace because it can

2. Upstream manufacturing gets done in Mexico, and some in Colombia (with lots of raw inputs from Brazil), as downstream chip manufacturing gets relocated to US and Canada. And I don’t think it’s crazy at all: the entire stretch of Colorado > Montana is starting to see new chip production, and there are well established producers in the Boston area too. But the real opportunity is in TX, where the Dallas - Houston - Austin triangle provides soup-to-nuts production opps for half-finished products that will cross the border.

The shift won’t happen over night. Taiwan will continue to lead in high-value production of chips, Korean robotics tech, and high quality monitors WITH the requisite trade support. The US can buy Taiwan’s loyalty with energy inputs, then protect their cargo from point A to point Z.

I eagerly await him unpacking the Colorado Montana vs Boston vs Dallas Houston Austin triangle.

Yeah, dunno, kind of over it until any of his various predictions come true-ish. Wonder what his take is on the ANC signing a new deal with their sponsor I mean the CCP.

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[simple schoolboy]

Straight out of Zeihan’s book:

U.S. seeking partners to safeguard ships after Red Sea attacks
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... ask-force/

Cuz a French Frigate got attacked? There's 0 interest in going in against the Houthis, but what if the Saudis are game and we quietly support them?

[BurtReynolds]

or at least Europe, North America and Asia. I think South America recently turned down as well.

What do you think about it? Can it be stopped? Should it be stopped? Is it too late to even care about?

I kinda have my doubts about the effects tbh, but I'm no expert. Some of the birthrates in places like South Korea and Italy are truly horrendous. Supposedly this will be China's last decade, if you buy what Peter Zeihan says.

But once all the boomers and (unfortunately) us Gen-Xers die off, it seems like it will be blue skies for whoever is left.

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[BurtReynolds]

oh so that's what that thread is. I remember now.

[BurtReynolds]

I'm afraid all the microplastics in our balls is going to do us in.

[E.H. Ruddock]

I was born a generation too early

[BurtReynolds]

I was born a generation too early

you were born one generation too late. The boomers lived the dream.

[E.H. Ruddock]

Except if you are 20 in 1969, you probably are fighting in a war.