Box office talk!

[Jorge]

I like discussing the financial side of Hollywood and I know not everybody does, so I thought I'd start a thread specifically dedicated to box office analysis and speculation, separate from the existing Movie Thoughts thread.

So, who else thinks Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is going to bomb?
- Absurd +$300m budget
- Horrendous word of mouth (TBC, but very likely)
- No real hype to speak of
- Contentious relationship between filmmaker and fandom
- Lacks the "oh wow we're back!" nostalgia factor of The Force Awakens because they already squandered it with Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
- Will likely be painted as a "go woke go broke" thing

[BurtReynolds]

It seems to be giving off Han Solo movie vibes, plus more problems.

Prediction : bomb

[E.H. Ruddock]

Hmm. I think it will bomb, but Ford has that older white American fan base that grew up with the originals and loves all the Yellowstone shows, so i could see it breaking even. But i guess that still would count as bombing.

[Jorge]

It will need to make over 700 million to break even

Absolutely foolish to spend so much money on an Indy adventure. The movie is doomed from the start

[Simple Torture]

I used to be into this as well (check out the Star Wars box office prediction threads), but, honestly, post-pandemic, I’m not sure what counts as a great/successful opening any more.

[tragabigzanda]

Whenever there's active promotion on the part of somebody else, whenever I see somebody all dolled up for a fancy photograph and someone's handing out flyers or whenever there's active promotion for something like that, as an imposition on my day, I hate all those people and I want them to fail. I have a visceral reaction to advertising and promotion. There's just something about salesmanship that grates on me on a very base level and I react very negatively towards it. I want those people to suffer and I want their enterprises to fail.

[BurtReynolds]

I get the feeling that the pandemic + streaming killed theaters for good, at least how they are constituted now. we just haven't realized it yet.

[Jorge]

We're on the rebound!

[bada]

It will need to make over 700 million to break even

Absolutely foolish to spend so much money on an Indy adventure. The movie is doomed from the start

I heard it cost $330 million to make. Since they always undersell the cost I bet its higher. Then most tentpole movies cost 100-150 million to market on top of that. Let's be nice. Say $400 million spend and be super generous and say they keep half of the box office (they keep around that domestically but international it can be far less and China almost asks you to pay them to show your movie). They are gonna need over $800 million to break even though I think realistically its a billion.

[JuanHamm]

I just watched, and loved, the original trilogy for the first time and I have no interest in seeing this. Most of these nostalgia sequels have been garbage and early reviews indicate that this will be no different.

[bada]

I do want to see it but I'll probably wait till it hits the interwebs. Unless the word of mouth changes.

[Ello Sailor]

Can anyone tell me if Babylon broke even? Kinda worried it wouldn't. I want to see more movies like this.

[bada]

Looks like it cost $110 million and brought in $63 million (15 million domestic and 48 million international). Don't see anything on the marketing spend (you never do). Probably conservatively $30 million. I bet it lost around $100 million at the end of the day. I think I read somewhere Margot Robbie's last few movies all lost north of 100 million each. Not her fault but interesting.

[Ello Sailor]

Thanks for that. Pretty gutting.

[Jorge]

Giant flop. I still haven't seen it

[Ello Sailor]

You're part of the problem.

[JuanHamm]

I thought about watching it this weekend, but it's so damn long.

[Ello Sailor]

And so damn good.

[BurtReynolds]

At some point movie budgets have to come back to earth, right? Maybe these giant corporations will sell or spin the studios off and we can hope to have some cool movies again.

[Jorge]

And so damn good.

I sincerely doubt it