Election 2024: Last One Out, Hit The Lights

[spike]

The Rock is starting to appear all over... WWE and now College Gameday. Does he have a movie coming out or is this the ramp up to POTUS nominee?

John Cena has started showing up on WWE as well. I think they're just bored because of the strike.

It’d be pretty great if other celebs started showing up in wrestling rings to stay relevant. I wanna see Larry David smack someone with a folding chair:

[McParadigm]

Democrats just scored a big win in an election on Tuesday: Democrat Hal Rafter defeated Republican James Guzofski 56 percent to 44 percent in a special election to fill a Republican-held seat in the New Hampshire state House. Assuming Democrats win another special election in November in a solidly blue seat, Rafter’s win means the New Hampshire state House will be tied at 198 Republicans and 198 Democrats (with two independents and two seats still vacant). On paper, that will end full Republican control of New Hampshire state government. (In practice, whoever controls the House could change by the day depending on legislator absences.)

It’s also the latest example of Democrats outperforming in a special election, a trend that could be a harbinger of a very good year for Democrats in 2024. This New Hampshire district is 6 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole, according to a weighted average of the 2020 and 2016 presidential results in the district.* Yet Rafter won by 12 points — an 18-point Democratic overperformance above their partisan baseline.

“Hang on,” you might be saying. “Only 2,800 people voted in this election.” (New Hampshire House districts are really tiny.) “Does that really mean anything?” On its own, no — any single special election can be influenced by any number of factors, including candidate quality or parochial issues. But Democrats have been posting special-election overperformances of that magnitude all year long, in all kinds of districts. And on average, they have won by margins 11 points higher than the weighted relative partisanship of their districts.

That’s more than just an impressive streak — it’s a potential sign of a Democratic wave election in 2024. In each of the past three election cycles, a party’s average overperformance in all special elections in a given cycle has been a close match for the eventual House popular vote in the eventual general election — albeit a couple of points better for Democrats.

https://abcnews.go.com/538/democrats-wi ... =103315703

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Chris_H_2]

Democrats just scored a big win in an election on Tuesday: Democrat Hal Rafter defeated Republican James Guzofski 56 percent to 44 percent in a special election to fill a Republican-held seat in the New Hampshire state House. Assuming Democrats win another special election in November in a solidly blue seat, Rafter’s win means the New Hampshire state House will be tied at 198 Republicans and 198 Democrats (with two independents and two seats still vacant). On paper, that will end full Republican control of New Hampshire state government. (In practice, whoever controls the House could change by the day depending on legislator absences.)

how in the hell does new hampshire have 396 state districts?

[Bi_3]

https://www.axios.com/2023/09/22/biden- ... -president

Scoop: Biden deploys Newsom to GOP debate

Joe Biden's re-election campaign is deploying California Gov. Gavin Newsom to the second Republican presidential debate next week in Simi Valley, Calif., Biden campaign advisers tell Axios.

Why it matters: It's the latest example of Biden's increasingly warm relationship with Newsom after earlier tensions between the two — and comes as the California governor continues to build his national profile.

Just drop out and put in Gavin and Gretchen already

[Bi_3]

Dismal polling showing Biden now losing to Trump by big numbers, but this seems off. As McP pointed out local elections are trending blue in GA, NC, and PA. So while people may dislike Biden, they aren’t going out and voting red

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=103436611

[McParadigm]

Dismal polling showing Biden now losing to Trump by big numbers, but this seems off.

According to the poll, 10% of respondents were not registered to vote. So 10% of its information is noise…and none of us can say which 10%.

It’s also a cold call poll utilizing landlines (incredibly, 25% of all respondents) in addition to cell phones. I notice that it doesn’t break down results by age. Given the disparate response rate to cold call polls among different age groups, I would expect that the reason not to include age breakdowns in your response data is that you are dissatisfied with your age breakdowns. This seems to be supported by the statement that the poll’s margins of error are “larger among some subgroups.”

There are also just always going to be outliers. Sometimes you call 1000 people and you get a group that is fairly reflective of the voting public. Sometimes you call 1000 people and the odds play against you.

As McP pointed out local elections are trending blue in GA, NC, and PA.

And New Hampshire. Strafford leans two points Republican, and saw an 11 point Democratic victory. Rockingham is R+6, and the Democratic win margin was 12 points.

[Bi_3]

[96583UP]

maybe Harris doesnt want to be VP again

and they will tap newsom

[E.H. Ruddock]

maybe Harris doesnt want to be VP again

and they will tap newsom

I think this is the more likely scenario

[simple schoolboy]

Is there any chance Cenk will still be in the primary by the time California votes? Seems like a lolzy enough vote.

[Electromatic]

How is Newsome electable? He’s no better than DeSantis. Energy in California is a disaster. He spent Covid at The French Laundry. The 20$ minimum wage is completely soaked up by rent and gasoline.

Newsome is spot on about the debate but you don’t want him running the country either.

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Bi_3]

There is no amount of adrenochrome that will fix Biden's brain in time for debates and his VP has transformed into a unlikable cackling imbecile. There must be someone who has national name recognition because "is not Trump" will only get you to about 40% this time through and there is no pandemic/BLM rioting to leverage. If not Gavin "Hans Gruber" Newsome (plus Whitmer as VP), then who? AOC? 2x loser Stacy Abrams?

[Electromatic]

There is no amount of adrenochrome that will fix Biden's brain in time for debates and his VP has transformed into a unlikable cackling imbecile. There must be someone who has national name recognition because "is not Trump" will only get you to about 40% this time through and there is no pandemic/BLM rioting to leverage. If not Gavin "Hans Gruber" Newsome (plus Whitmer as VP), then who? AOC? 2x loser Stacy Abrams?

How do you feel about Ned Lamont or Jared Polis?

[Bi_3]

There is no amount of adrenochrome that will fix Biden's brain in time for debates and his VP has transformed into a unlikable cackling imbecile. There must be someone who has national name recognition because "is not Trump" will only get you to about 40% this time through and there is no pandemic/BLM rioting to leverage. If not Gavin "Hans Gruber" Newsome (plus Whitmer as VP), then who? AOC? 2x loser Stacy Abrams?

How do you feel about Ned Lamont or Jared Polis?

I know nothing about Lamont, but what I've read about Polis he isn't a bad leader... he's just lost in the noise of being the governor of one of the tier-two states (vs. Cali/Texas/NY/Fla/etc)

[96583UP]

DeSanctimonious: 5’9”

Newsome: 6’3” + better hair

this is all it takes, folks

[simple schoolboy]

RFK Jr running as an independent hurts which party more?

[96583UP]

no one... in the case of incumbent vs. incumbent, everyone else is a total after thought