Election 2024: Last One Out, Hit The Lights

[Peeps]

If Trump wins I’m terrified of the next four years. If Biden wins I’m terrified of the days after the election

I’m not sure my day to day life is affected much either way except for maybe Biden higher gas prices

That is because you live in a blue city. Those of us in red or purple areas will have to deal with Proud Bois storming government offices if Biden wins.

you realize that presidents have a very small amount of control over gas prices, right?

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[E.H. Ruddock]

McP please tell us how this is all going to go

If you do i will pay for your ticket to the next transformers movie

[McParadigm]

I think the vast majority of people have more or less tuned Trump out since February 2021. First of all, because they finally could. And second, because they were sick of hearing about him.

And I think his polling numbers benefit from that very effortful “out of sight, out of mind”ness right now. Which is actually a real problem for him, because an election cycle will put him and his words right back in people’s faces….and his rhetoric has grown more divisive in the last few years, not less.

I would say that he is guaranteed, in his base-driven echo chamber, to say stupid shit that costs him essential voters over the next 10 months. People who weren’t happy about him before, but are frustrated with the current state of things. Or maybe those who have just sort of tempered their memory of his presidency over the last 4 years. He can’t lose ANY of these people and still win…and he will lose some of them.

Meanwhile, he is highly unlikely to say things that bring new people in to replace that loss. His appeal has nowhere to go but down as the cycle heats up. Not a lot down…his core support is unflappable…but he can’t afford to see it drop at all. 2% is a killer from where he’s starting. And he simply doesn’t have a message that brings people in. He doesn’t care to. He seems to have fully removed all of the people from his circle who thought about that at all.

At the end of the day (and I’m not any happier about this than anyone else) I think the Biden administration correctly believes that once the public starts hearing Donald Trump weigh in on the events of the day again…he will produce all the blue vote motivation they need. The Democrat establishment’s lesson from the last 8 years has been “just run against Trump and the problem fixes itself.” Which is shit, and will bite them in the ass the first time Trump is not a topic in an election. But here we are.

The three unknown variables to me are: who is his running mate, how bad is the drag from Biden being a guy literally no one wants to reelect, and what will disinformation be like this time around? Like, is this the last presidential election not fully swallowed up by digital disinformation? Or is it the first one of the new era?

If Trump picked a moderating running mate, that would change the equation. But he won’t. He’ll more likely pick someone that his base friggin loves, but who provides no real additional draw to what Trump already brings in. Zero gain.

If Biden died and they ran Harris, I think Trump could and probably would win.

If disinformation fatigues people into an even deeper level of cynicism and hopelessness than American is already plagued with, he might win.

But barring some kind of shift from the status quo, I think he loses because his polling numbers always, always suffer from an increase in attention.

So right now I'm a lot more interested in what happens the day he loses, and the day after that. If something changes, I might start to worry about what happens if he wins.

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[McParadigm]

I did it all for the transformers tickets

[E.H. Ruddock]

Any chance Trump will pick Tucker as his running mate?

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Anders]

I think the vast majority of people have more or less tuned Trump out since February 2021. First of all, because they finally could. And second, because they were sick of hearing about him.

And I think his polling numbers benefit from that very effortful “out of sight, out of mind”ness right now. Which is actually a real problem for him, because an election cycle will put him and his words right back in people’s faces….and his rhetoric has grown more divisive in the last few years, not less.

I would say that he is guaranteed, in his base-driven echo chamber, to say stupid shit that costs him essential voters over the next 10 months. People who weren’t happy about him before, but are frustrated with the current state of things. Or maybe those who have just sort of tempered their memory of his presidency over the last 4 years. He can’t lose ANY of these people and still win…and he will lose some of them.

Meanwhile, he is highly unlikely to say things that bring new people in to replace that loss. His appeal has nowhere to go but down as the cycle heats up. Not a lot down…his core support is unflappable…but he can’t afford to see it drop at all. 2% is a killer from where he’s starting. And he simply doesn’t have a message that brings people in. He doesn’t care to. He seems to have fully removed all of the people from his circle who thought about that at all.

At the end of the day (and I’m not any happier about this than anyone else) I think the Biden administration correctly believes that once the public starts hearing Donald Trump weigh in on the events of the day again…he will produce all the blue vote motivation they need. The Democrat establishment’s lesson from the last 8 years has been “just run against Trump and the problem fixes itself.” Which is shit, and will bite them in the ass the first time Trump is not a topic in an election. But here we are.

The three unknown variables to me are: who is his running mate, how bad is the drag from Biden being a guy literally no one wants to reelect, and what will disinformation be like this time around? Like, is this the last presidential election not fully swallowed up by digital disinformation? Or is it the first one of the new era?

If Trump picked a moderating running mate, that would change the equation. But he won’t. He’ll more likely pick someone that his base friggin loves, but who provides no real additional draw to what Trump already brings in. Zero gain.

If Biden died and they ran Harris, I think Trump could and probably would win.

If disinformation fatigues people into an even deeper level of cynicism and hopelessness than American is already plagued with, he might win.

But barring some kind of shift from the status quo, I think he loses because his polling numbers always, always suffer from an increase in attention.

So right now I'm a lot more interested in what happens the day he loses, and the day after that. If something changes, I might start to worry about what happens if he wins.

This seems fair. Good post. Thank you.

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Anders]

Thank you.

[E.H. Ruddock]

You should also thank me for prompting him to write it

And me for buying his transformers tickets

[Bammer]

Ok what if ballots are printed, mailed out, and within like 2 days of that both octogenarian candidates die. What then?

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Bi_3]

Ok what if ballots are printed, mailed out, and within like 2 days of that both octogenarian candidates die. What then?

A golden age in America

[wease]

Any chance Trump will pick Tucker as his running mate?

RIP bodysnatcher’s whole family

I’ve missed something. Why is this?

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[96583UP]

yeah i don't think Trump wins the independent voters this time around

and i think abortion is gonna be a bigger problem for him with women then the mainstream narrative seems to acknowledge

and that this time around he was found guilty of raping someone

and that whole raiding the capitol thing

but really the first two, or three, hopefully

but the 4th doesnt seem to register apparently

which is surprising

brawndo has what plants crave

[Strat]

I've been reading/hearing analysis about the actual turnout in Iowa for the primaries and how turnout was historically low or less than anticipated. Sure, weather could have played a part, but the fact Trump performed much lower (almost 100k less than last time?), says more about the actual enthusiasm of the conservative movement at this point. Obviously, the Trump faithful will always turn out but clearly they aren't enough to put him in the White House. Additional consideration for the votes for Halley and desantis ....who obviously have not mustered any support to those who oppose Trump to actually turn out and give them a fighting chance.

Seems to me - republicans are doomed in a general election. Add in what McP has to say about what will happen when Trump becomes the nominee and news cycle begins airing his insane ramblings (today he blamed Haley for not calling national guard on j6), he certainly ain't going to bring in new voters but will ultimately get liberals to vote for Biden....


I imagine it'll be a blood bath. Figuratively in the polls and literally in the streets.

[spike]

The primary process is pointless projection wise. The GOPers fall in line behind their nominee.