Election 2024: Last One Out, Hit The Lights

[E.H. Ruddock]

He had a change of heart? Maybe he saw something that shook his core and his stance changed? Ask Biden

[Strat]

Also is it not republicans blocking attempts to fix the border right now ?

[Peeps]

If he went back to peak Biden for the election it would be the biggest sweep in history, and likely the end of MAGA as a major force in politics :

there's no way that he remembers saying that

Peeps, your retort? Please try to keep little girls out of it by the way, perv.

Sorry bub. Until you answer the initial question or give some type of proof I’m just going to assume you thought people here would believe you. Some how you’re a nightmare version of Alex p keaton.

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Bi_3]

Also is it not republicans blocking attempts to fix the border right now ?

It was republicans who could have prevent all this (and potentially impacted the fentanyl crises) had they accepted Obamas immigration reform plan

[spike]

If he went back to peak Biden for the election it would be the biggest sweep in history, and likely the end of MAGA as a major force in politics :

He’s CEO now. Gotta control that spending with half measures.

ANYWAY....

The Texas thing is turning into quite the event, itll be interesting to see how Biden responds to states openly rejecting federal direction:

States backing texas:

Don’t be such a dick. I was simply suggesting his priorities or viewpoint might change when he’s in charge of the country, not just a congressman.

[Peeps]

Also is it not republicans blocking attempts to fix the border right now ?

It was republicans who could have prevent all this (and potentially impacted the fentanyl crises) had they accepted Obamas immigration reform plan

To answer your question strat, yes

[Bi_3]

If he went back to peak Biden for the election it would be the biggest sweep in history, and likely the end of MAGA as a major force in politics :

He’s CEO now. Gotta control that spending with half measures.

ANYWAY....

The Texas thing is turning into quite the event, itll be interesting to see how Biden responds to states openly rejecting federal direction:

States backing texas:

Don’t be such a dick. I was simply suggesting his priorities or viewpoint might change when he’s in charge of the country, not just a congressman.

Sorry, I meant that a redirection back to the topic at hand and it wasn’t directed at you

[spike]

You’re out of control.

[Bammer]

Unusually funny for a peeps joke

I’ll take that as a W

[spike]

Unusually funny for a peeps joke

I’ll take that as a W

why?

[Happy Trees]

Also is it not republicans blocking attempts to fix the border right now ?

MAGA Republicans: Biden & Dems want illegals and deadly drugs flooding in. Vote for Trump.
Intelligent person: Dems have been trying to solve the problem for years. What are you doing to help?
MAGA Republicans: Nothing at all. Wanna see my sock puppet?
MAGA voters: Oh look, it can smoke cigarettes. How did you do that?
MAGA Republicans: Biden & Dems want illegals and deadly drugs flooding in. Vote for Trump.

[B]

Isn't this a map of gray states paying a surplus to the federal government and red states being kept afloat by the federal government?

[McParadigm]

This is also largely a map of the states whose Representatives are actively working to stop the bipartisan immigration bill, because the Republican presidential frontrunner complained that it would help his opponent politically.

[spike]

that is a lot of thoughts and prayers heading TX’s way

[Bammer]

Dance Of The Prayervoyants

[4/5]

I think the vast majority of people have more or less tuned Trump out since February 2021. First of all, because they finally could. And second, because they were sick of hearing about him.

And I think his polling numbers benefit from that very effortful “out of sight, out of mind”ness right now. Which is actually a real problem for him, because an election cycle will put him and his words right back in people’s faces….and his rhetoric has grown more divisive in the last few years, not less.

I would say that he is guaranteed, in his base-driven echo chamber, to say stupid shit that costs him essential voters over the next 10 months. People who weren’t happy about him before, but are frustrated with the current state of things. Or maybe those who have just sort of tempered their memory of his presidency over the last 4 years. He can’t lose ANY of these people and still win…and he will lose some of them.

Meanwhile, he is highly unlikely to say things that bring new people in to replace that loss. His appeal has nowhere to go but down as the cycle heats up. Not a lot down…his core support is unflappable…but he can’t afford to see it drop at all. 2% is a killer from where he’s starting. And he simply doesn’t have a message that brings people in. He doesn’t care to. He seems to have fully removed all of the people from his circle who thought about that at all.

At the end of the day (and I’m not any happier about this than anyone else) I think the Biden administration correctly believes that once the public starts hearing Donald Trump weigh in on the events of the day again…he will produce all the blue vote motivation they need. The Democrat establishment’s lesson from the last 8 years has been “just run against Trump and the problem fixes itself.” Which is shit, and will bite them in the ass the first time Trump is not a topic in an election. But here we are.

The three unknown variables to me are: who is his running mate, how bad is the drag from Biden being a guy literally no one wants to reelect, and what will disinformation be like this time around? Like, is this the last presidential election not fully swallowed up by digital disinformation? Or is it the first one of the new era?

If Trump picked a moderating running mate, that would change the equation. But he won’t. He’ll more likely pick someone that his base friggin loves, but who provides no real additional draw to what Trump already brings in. Zero gain.

If Biden died and they ran Harris, I think Trump could and probably would win.

If disinformation fatigues people into an even deeper level of cynicism and hopelessness than American is already plagued with, he might win.

But barring some kind of shift from the status quo, I think he loses because his polling numbers always, always suffer from an increase in attention.

So right now I'm a lot more interested in what happens the day he loses, and the day after that. If something changes, I might start to worry about what happens if he wins.

I know this is old but it was a good post and I wanted to respond but haven't had a chance.

I think you're dead on about Trump and how being in the limelight again will affect his support. But I think there's another important question: will the typical Democratic coalition actually show up and vote for Biden? At the moment that looks like THE question to me. It's obviously very early and people might be saying stuff right now as a way of expressing frustration as opposed to what they'll actually do in November, but right now some key demographic polling is brutal for Biden.

20% of Hispanic and black voters say they will not vote for either Trump or Biden. 21% of voters under 35 say they won't vote for either candidate. Again, it's early and I don't expect those numbers to hold but those numbers are at a minimum a warning shot at Biden. Some polls have Biden as low as 63% (!!!) support from black voters. And trailing among Hispanic voters.

Enthusiasm metrics not surprisingly favor Trump tremendously. It's such a weird matchup between a guy with a base that is deathly (probably literally) loyal and a candidate who almost has no base but is going to just rely on being not Trump. Idk. I don't think anything is a given at this point.

[B]

NPR theory: Haley is staying in because if Trump totally fucks himself, there's nowhere to go but to her.

[spike]

NPR theory: Haley is staying in because if Trump totally fucks himself, there's nowhere to go but to her.

That’s absolutely what she’s doing.

[wease]

NPR theory: Haley is staying in because if Trump totally fucks himself, there's nowhere to go but to her.

That’s absolutely what she’s doing.

She’s a pretty smart cookie.