Lightning Bolt: The Official Album Thread

[Yellow Ledbetter]

I've been thinking about locking the revote option to really up the anxiety level

i still havent voted

Neither do I.

I'm still listening to many songs of the album throughout the days, too soon to choose one.

[BurtReynolds]

I've been thinking about locking the revote option to really up the anxiety level

i still havent voted

Neither do I.

I'm still listening to many songs of the album throughout the days, too soon to choose one.

you know you can just change your vote, right?

[harmless]

I'd love to know who else is in the 7% for Sirens.

[sward]

I'd love to know who else is in the 7% for Sirens.

I know that doesn't offer you much

[McParadigm]

Nothing in the 150-200k range would have struck me as indicative of anything. It's a #1, but only due to timing. Last week, the week before, or the week before that it would have been #2 or 3. Keep in mind that if Binaural had been released on any of the three weeks leading up to its actual release date, it would have been a #1 album too. Same with s/t. The chart position is a victory of timing, but it runs well in the press.

The real sign of what's to come will be next week. Anything over 70,000 will be a good sign, anything under 50,000 a bad one. Right now, though, I'd bet on this finishing up somewhere between 250-350k.

[sward]

Nothing in the 150-200k range would have struck me as indicative of anything. It's a #1, but only due to timing. Last week, the week before, or the week before that it would have been #2 or 3. Keep in mind that if Binaural had been released on any of the three weeks leading up to its actual release date, it would have been a #1 album too. Same with s/t. The chart position is a victory of timing, but it runs well in the press.

The real sign of what's to come will be next week. Anything over 70,000 will be a good sign, anything under 50,000 a bad one. Right now, though, I'd bet on this finishing up somewhere between 250-350k.

So did Backspacer sell almost 700k on the strength of Just Breathe? Given that they sold similar amounts for week 1?

[Dr. Van Nostrand]

I've been thinking about locking the revote option to really up the anxiety level

i still havent voted

Neither do I.

I'm still listening to many songs of the album throughout the days, too soon to choose one.

you know you can just change your vote, right?

not for long though

[stupidmop]

It'll sell slightly less than backspacer, just like everyother album has sold less than the one before it.

[Tuolumne]

Nothing in the 150-200k range would have struck me as indicative of anything. It's a #1, but only due to timing. Last week, the week before, or the week before that it would have been #2 or 3. Keep in mind that if Binaural had been released on any of the three weeks leading up to its actual release date, it would have been a #1 album too. Same with s/t. The chart position is a victory of timing, but it runs well in the press.

The real sign of what's to come will be next week. Anything over 70,000 will be a good sign, anything under 50,000 a bad one. Right now, though, I'd bet on this finishing up somewhere between 250-350k.

I don't see it staying in the top 10 or 20 for very long at all. No rock album does. This is the biggest selling rock album of the year, which doesn't say much for the rock genre. Arcade Fire will probably be the big rock album of the year. But I do see it as a moderate success. Miley Cyrus was everwhere, comletely dominating the news and the zeitgeist twerking her way into everyone's living rooms. You'd have to think her exposure was like that of a Super Bowl sized audience in terms of how many people she reached over the past month or two. And she only ended up selling 100K more than PJ in her first week. It says alot about how clueless the record industry is. If Sirens holds on Just Breathe style, it could stay on the charts for awhile in the bottom rungs and do respectably for a few months, ekeing out some more sales. All in all, it'll be a larger success than most of the other rock albums of the year: Alice in Chains, QOTSA, NIN, Kings of Leon, Vampire Weekend, etc. Better than those, but not quite Black Keys or Arcade Fire levels. That's a nice moderate success 23 years into their careers.

[VinylGuy]

i would like to see them pushing a third single.

[McParadigm]

Nothing in the 150-200k range would have struck me as indicative of anything. It's a #1, but only due to timing. Last week, the week before, or the week before that it would have been #2 or 3. Keep in mind that if Binaural had been released on any of the three weeks leading up to its actual release date, it would have been a #1 album too. Same with s/t. The chart position is a victory of timing, but it runs well in the press.

The real sign of what's to come will be next week. Anything over 70,000 will be a good sign, anything under 50,000 a bad one. Right now, though, I'd bet on this finishing up somewhere between 250-350k.

So did Backspacer sell almost 700k on the strength of Just Breathe? Given that they sold similar amounts for week 1?

Backspacer had more positive and noisier press going in, a 13% larger opening, bigger hits in both Fixer and Just Breathe (Sirens could still do that, but its been showing a flagging momentum for almost two weeks now and it's a long ways away from where it ought to be), and a notably stronger sales market than we have now. A third single could change the story, or an abnormally big tour, but otherwise its very unlikely to go gold.

[Dr. Van Nostrand]

It'll sell slightly less than backspacer, just like everyother album has sold less than the one before it.

i thought backspacer sold more then s/t did, but i dont really follow sales that much

[BurtReynolds]

i would like to see them pushing a third single.

I would bet on it being SBM or Future Days, unfortunately.

[BurtReynolds]

Nothing in the 150-200k range would have struck me as indicative of anything. It's a #1, but only due to timing. Last week, the week before, or the week before that it would have been #2 or 3. Keep in mind that if Binaural had been released on any of the three weeks leading up to its actual release date, it would have been a #1 album too. Same with s/t. The chart position is a victory of timing, but it runs well in the press.

The real sign of what's to come will be next week. Anything over 70,000 will be a good sign, anything under 50,000 a bad one. Right now, though, I'd bet on this finishing up somewhere between 250-350k.

So did Backspacer sell almost 700k on the strength of Just Breathe? Given that they sold similar amounts for week 1?

Backspacer had more positive and noisier press going in, a 13% larger opening, bigger hits in both Fixer and Just Breathe (Sirens could still do that, but its been showing a flagging momentum for almost two weeks now and it's a long ways away from where it ought to be), and a notably stronger sales market than we have now. A third single could change the story, or an abnormally big tour, but otherwise its very unlikely to go gold.

Seems like BS had a much larger marketing push, maybe because of Target. This one doesn't seem like nearly as much of an event.

[EJ]

It'll sell slightly less than backspacer, just like everyother album has sold less than the one before it.

Actually, I think S/T outsold Riot Act, by a decent amount too.

[stupidmop]

I was very wrong then. Though I guess that has something to do with increased marketing too.

My hypothesis was based on a pretty much static fanbase size and the general fall of sales for everyone.

[EJ]

I was very wrong then. Though I guess that has something to do with increased marketing too.

My hypothesis was based on a pretty much static fanbase size and the general fall of sales for everyone.

Yep. Ed was pretty frustrated at how poorly Riot Act was selling - including not even being able to find it in record stores, etc because they weren't even stocking it. A lot of that drove the change in the songwriting for the band. And, a ton more marketing for S/T.

[harmless]

I'm a bit baffled how it's #2 in the UK. They haven't even heard of it in our local Sainsbury's.

[McParadigm]

I'm a bit baffled how it's #2 in the UK. They haven't even heard of it in our local Sainsbury's.

Same game as the US, probably. Other than Riot Act, all of their albums have been top 10 events in England...they have a decent old-people fanbase who still buy their music, while younger acts get downloaded.

[McParadigm]

Case in point:

First week sales in the UK....

Backspacer - 25,804
Lightning Bolt - 17,559

It's largely the collapse of the record industry that's to blame.