Ukraine

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[E.H. Ruddock]

Trag ready to not see 40 IBCMs launched in response by the US because of a decrepit POTUS driving poor communications combined with fractured, rapid-fire decision making across three Eastern hemisphere nuclear-armed countries

You are basing your opinions off that article you posted, which stated early on that Putin has no desire to take over more of eastern europe, and thus created their entire narrative off that. Cause if the US/western world truly believed Putin was going to march further west, they would have taken drastic measures already.

I think that is a flawed argument. And it leads to just letting Putin take land and supposes he is playing with good intentions.

Wrong on two counts.

I’m basing a lot of my opinion on Nuclear War: A Scenario; and I have no idea/opinion on what Putin’s plans are regarding further expansion.

No one knows if he’s bluffing. But the order of operations for retaliation should a nuclear launch be detected are razor thin; we’re talking about 10-30 minutes, depending on a variety of really fragile, complicated factors, for every other nuclear-armed country to decide if the traveling missile they see on their radar warrants a quick and decisive counter attack.

Putin’s already won this thing. If the US doesn’t allow access to their satellites for long-range mission guidance, it seems the Ukraine has little options left; and if they do allow access, then Putin claims latitude to escalate and we enter a very real game of chicken around use of nukes.

Game’s already over for Ukraine. I don’t think it’s to anyone’s benefit to bring the rest of the world along as collateral.

Yeah I’m not sure about your source information here if that’s what they are really saying.

[E.H. Ruddock]

Say Ukraine backs off “in the name of peace” then what? Will you feel the same when Russia tries it again with another neighboring country?

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[E.H. Ruddock]

Russia wants a pro Russian government running Ukraine. I doubt they will back off unless Zelensky stepping down is part of it. Also Russia has had huge military losses against such a small nation. Putin may be power blind but he’s well aware that If he uses nukes against the west and multiple countries that also have them, the war that has remained mostly in Ukraine will touch his country in ways that he doesn’t want. He doesn’t want world destruction, he wants more power. Hard to do that when your country is burning

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[96583UP]

no one knows what russia's 'red line' is for using nuke

many assumed it would be if you invaded onto russian soil

ukraine did that and russia did not use them

it's a dangerous game but i think it is reasonably safe to say that if we keep arming ukraine and ukraine fights the war, including occasionally tactically striking in russian border areas or in-russia military targets, to try and spread putin out or keep him off-balance, putin is not going to use nukes

he is an asswipe but he is not irrational

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[96583UP]

aside from risking mutually assured destruction, which I dont think he would do over a few hundred miles of grainland

i think him using nukes might be a red line for China

at the end of the day, I think China will support a low/mid-intensity conventional war

I don't think they will support a precedent where nukes are OK to use

Russia badly relies on China right now to keep their economy going

and Russia needs China to keep North Korea on board to keep arming them (North Korea is basically a chinese client state)

the risk/reward would be very bad for Putin

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[96583UP]

You make some good points. But alternate take: If US allows use of satellites for long-range attacks, does China feel emboldened to finally make a play for Taiwan? Are we sucked into three separate proxy wars just before an election?

China's economy is too weak right now to invade Taiwan. They can't risk further cutoff from foreign direct investment. They are stuck in a deflation spiral with huge youth unemployment.

But the USA is concerned about the growing partnership between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran

We need all the nations on the planet that we can to help resist their behavior

Success is not guaranteed

Europe can help by significantly increasing their defense spending

[simple schoolboy]

You make some good points. But alternate take: If US allows use of satellites for long-range attacks, does China feel emboldened to finally make a play for Taiwan? Are we sucked into three separate proxy wars just before an election?

China's economy is too weak right now to invade Taiwan. They can't risk further cutoff from foreign direct investment. They are stuck in a deflation spiral with huge youth unemployment.

But the USA is concerned about the growing partnership between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran

We need all the nations on the planet that we can to help resist their behavior

Success is not guaranteed

Europe can help by significantly increasing their defense spending

If China wanted to blockade and declare Taiwan reunified, now is probably about as good a time as ever, what with all the US carriers busy in the Middle East. Either they figure they can merely wait Taiwan out or they are less than confident in their ability to pull off something kinetic.

Apparently the reserve training for the Taiwanese military is fairly demoralizing, so maybe China figures they'll cave at the first sign of pressure and feels no need to advance any hard timelines.

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[96583UP]

you guys are forgetting about the money though

the fingers thing means the money

invade means their exports to the west go to zero

then they'll have like 40% unemployment

and risk domestic revolution for real

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[simple schoolboy]

You make some good points. But alternate take: If US allows use of satellites for long-range attacks, does China feel emboldened to finally make a play for Taiwan? Are we sucked into three separate proxy wars just before an election?

China's economy is too weak right now to invade Taiwan. They can't risk further cutoff from foreign direct investment. They are stuck in a deflation spiral with huge youth unemployment.

But the USA is concerned about the growing partnership between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran

We need all the nations on the planet that we can to help resist their behavior

Success is not guaranteed

Europe can help by significantly increasing their defense spending

If China wanted to blockade and declare Taiwan reunified, now is probably about as good a time as ever, what with all the US carriers busy in the Middle East. Either they figure they can merely wait Taiwan out or they are less than confident in their ability to pull off something kinetic.

Apparently the reserve training for the Taiwanese military is fairly demoralizing, so maybe China figures they'll cave at the first sign of pressure and feels no need to advance any hard timelines.

I’m generally more aligned with this, e.g. timing is good. And people I personally know who do a lot of DOD contract work seem to think some sort of maneuver is imminent.

But unlike SS, I’m thinking less about US fleet, and more about Japan’s fleet as a US proxy.

Japan has those big amphibious assault ships that can support F-35Bs, but have they ordered squadrons to actually operate off of them?

They are upping their spending, but when are they actually going to see the pay off?

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Bi_3]

I hope you all realize Trag is mostly right over these last few pages.

[simple schoolboy]

You make some good points. But alternate take: If US allows use of satellites for long-range attacks, does China feel emboldened to finally make a play for Taiwan? Are we sucked into three separate proxy wars just before an election?

China's economy is too weak right now to invade Taiwan. They can't risk further cutoff from foreign direct investment. They are stuck in a deflation spiral with huge youth unemployment.

But the USA is concerned about the growing partnership between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran

We need all the nations on the planet that we can to help resist their behavior

Success is not guaranteed

Europe can help by significantly increasing their defense spending

If China wanted to blockade and declare Taiwan reunified, now is probably about as good a time as ever, what with all the US carriers busy in the Middle East. Either they figure they can merely wait Taiwan out or they are less than confident in their ability to pull off something kinetic.

Apparently the reserve training for the Taiwanese military is fairly demoralizing, so maybe China figures they'll cave at the first sign of pressure and feels no need to advance any hard timelines.

I’m generally more aligned with this, e.g. timing is good. And people I personally know who do a lot of DOD contract work seem to think some sort of maneuver is imminent.

But unlike SS, I’m thinking less about US fleet, and more about Japan’s fleet as a US proxy.

Japan has those big amphibious assault ships that can support F-35Bs, but have they ordered squadrons to actually operate off of them?

They are upping their spending, but when are they actually going to see the pay off?

I have no counterpoint because this is about where my knowledge ends. Explain more!

Japan likes to give their ships weird designations. Their "Helicopter Support ships" (or w/e they are called) are basically like our amphibious assault ships and can support helicopters and VTOL aircraft. The Marines have flown off their ship(s?) so they are qualified to support F-35Bs but were not initially intended to do so. They have what are effectively light carriers and can convert them in the future, but I am not sure if they bought the one currently available aircraft they could use with them. (Previously would have been harriers)

They have F-35As for their air force, but these are not the carrier or VTOL version.

[Anders]

I hope you all realize Trag is mostly right over these last few pages.

Giving up and giving in is not the right way forward.