Re: The 47th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

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epilogue
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Re: The 47th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

Post by epilogue »

Biff Pocoroba wrote:No way Trump is president on January 20, 2029. He might die before then or do something serious enough to be impeached but I think the 25th amendment coming into play is more likely. He’s already mentally declining.
And we won’t have to worry about the debt, deficit, or debt ceiling the next four years. Those only a concern when Dems hold the Oval Office.
But the idea of today’s GOP holding the executive branch, both legislative houses, and the judicial branch…yikes.
Untrue about the debt. Trump ballooned it last time. It's a big concern now especially given his tariff fetish.

But all that aside... He will have control of the Senate. He'll likely have control of the House. But even if he doesn't, let's say the House impeaches him? The Senate won't remove him. He'll be surrounded by yes men and sycophants. No one is going to use the 25th Amendment. Even if someone tried, he has control of the court. There are no guardrails. There are no more checks and balances. This is what the people apparently wanted. Unfettered Executive power.

If this dude doesn't want to go... he ain't gonna go and there are no longer any mechanisms to make him. It'll come down to his own ego and any future legal threats he sees pending. I'd bet on him not going anywhere.
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Re: The 47th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

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washing machine wrote:Hoping in the Trump economy that I can sell the house that I couldn't in the Biden economy.
Trump will cut mortgage rates down to 2% his first week in office and everything will be fine.
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Re: The 47th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

Post by epilogue »

spike wrote:
washing machine wrote:Hoping in the Trump economy that I can sell the house that I couldn't in the Biden economy.
Trump will cut mortgage rates down to 2% his first week in office and everything will be fine.
Maybe my Mom, the right-winger, will finally get that huge depression she's been certain is coming. Buy all those cows will maybe pay off!
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Re: Re: The 47th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

Post by tommy »

I'd really like to refinance my mortgage. I'm currently stuck at 6.25%
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Re: Re: The 47th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

Post by epilogue »

tommy wrote:I'd really like to refinance my mortgage. I'm currently stuck at 6.25%
You're in luck!
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Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

Post by spike »

warehouse wrote:
4/5 wrote:
spike wrote:
If Democrats really think they lost because of racism and sexism it's tough to imagine them getting back into power anytime soon.
elaborate please

how long until we get president vance? 2 years?
I guess he’s not going to.
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Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

Post by 4/5 »

spike wrote:
warehouse wrote:
4/5 wrote:
spike wrote:
If Democrats really think they lost because of racism and sexism it's tough to imagine them getting back into power anytime soon.
elaborate please

how long until we get president vance? 2 years?
I guess he’s not going to.
Oh my bad.

First, racism and sexism both exist and it is likely that people who are are racist/sexist were more likely to vote for Trump than Harris.

My statement has two purposes which I'll expand on below.
(1) to assert that insofar as there is a "the reason" Harris lost it isn't racism/sexism. We all like simple narratives to explain complex things and this is a convenient one, but ultimately there are many reasons she lost and I think racism/sexism is relatively low on the list.

(2) More importantly, whether or not it's actual true, blaming the loss on racism/sexism is not helpful to the Democratic Party if they want to win future elections.

McP, among others, already had a good post about knee jerk post mortems, but among the many reasons she lost:
-Biden screwed over the party hanging on too long
-Lack of a legitimate primary process
-The party chose a candidate who was unpopular throughout her vice presidency to that point.
-Biden was unpopular and she never really even attempted to distance herself from him, making it very easy for the right to portray her as a continuation of Biden.
-Questionable campaign strategy
-Lack of substantive policy proposals
-Due to lack of primary process she was in a difficult position of attempting to shore up her left base while also trying to appeal to undecided voters
-Continuation of Biden's pro-Israel policies
-She just wasn't a strong candidate
-Recent memories of inflation
-Another campaign that amounted to "I'm not Trump so vote for me."
-The party's perceived alienation of men
-The party appearing to place identity politics above their traditional concern: working class Americans. (Bernie Sanders made a similar claim yesterday.)
-Etc., this is by no means exhaustive but there were lots of reasons.

The bigger issue, though, is that if the party decides it was just those awful racists/sexists, what even is the next move? I see the options in that case: (1) educate people to be less racist/sexist and then those repentant converts will win the next election for you. (2) double triple quadruple down and emphasize how awful everybody who didn't vote for you is and count on your GOTV efforts to be superior and demographics are on our side! (3) decide that you'd rather have the moral high ground than win elections, or (4) embrace racism/sexism since that wins elections.
Of course these aren't literally the only options, but my point is: if you only lost because of the moral failings of a majority of the country, then it seems to me that the options are extremely limited.

In my opinion all this does is allow people to convince themselves of their own moral superiority without any introspection for how to actually win elections.

And if it is racism/sexism it also presents that sticky question about why did Trump do better with every demographic group except college educated white women. (Or is it white women in general? I've looked at a lot of exit poll data, stuff is blending.) But why did Harris do worse than Biden with black voters (especially men obviously but even women), significantly worse with Hispanic voters, literally every group but white women?

This isn't what those post is primarily about but the bigger question might be how did Democrats manage to blow up the "demographics is destiny" feeling from just 12 years ago? Did they really just assume they'd have Hispanic support without actually doing anything to earn it?
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Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

Post by B »

4/5 wrote:-The party chose a candidate who was unpopular throughout her vice presidency to that point.
-Due to lack of primary process she was in a difficult position of attempting to shore up her left base while also trying to appeal to undecided voters
-She just wasn't a strong candidate
You're not wrong about most of assertions, but I take issue with this stuff. When she stepped into the role, Biden was losing on the economy by 20%-30%. By last week, Harris was behind Trump by maybe 4%. She did an amazing job of closing that gap. Not to mention, exit polling is showing that people still rank her as more popular than Trump. They like Harris more, and still voted for Trump (for most of the other reasons you listed). I'm not sure any candidate would have done better. Whitmer or Newsom would have lost just the same.
4/5 wrote:-The party's perceived alienation of men
As for this one, people can fuck right off. If winning an election means catering to butthurt Alpha males who can't get a woman because they're so abusively toxic that no one can stand to be around them, then I'd spend the rest of this experiment in a coma.
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Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

Post by BurtReynolds »

B wrote:
4/5 wrote:-The party's perceived alienation of men
As for this one, people can fuck right off. If winning an election means catering to butthurt Alpha males who can't get a woman because they're so abusively toxic that no one can stand to be around them, then I'd spend the rest of this experiment in a coma.
The fact that you interpret "alienation of males" as whatever the fuck you just said just proves progressives are utterly hopeless.
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Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

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FUCK ICE
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Re: Re: The 47th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

Post by 4/5 »

epilogue wrote:
tommy wrote:I'd really like to refinance my mortgage. I'm currently stuck at 6.25%
You're in luck!
Interest rates projected to be higher under Trump than they would have been Harris.
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Re: Re: The 47th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

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FUCK ICE
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Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

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B wrote:
4/5 wrote:-The party chose a candidate who was unpopular throughout her vice presidency to that point.
-Due to lack of primary process she was in a difficult position of attempting to shore up her left base while also trying to appeal to undecided voters
-She just wasn't a strong candidate
You're not wrong about most of assertions, but I take issue with this stuff. When she stepped into the role, Biden was losing on the economy by 20%-30%. By last week, Harris was behind Trump by maybe 4%. She did an amazing job of closing that gap. Not to mention, exit polling is showing that people still rank her as more popular than Trump. They like Harris more, and still voted for Trump (for most of the other reasons you listed). I'm not sure any candidate would have done better. Whitmer or Newsom would have lost just the same.
I actually agree with you. I still think she was a weak candidate but she was admittedly put in a very tough spot. I strongly believe that Michelle Obama would have won, but besides her, yeah she wasn't appreciably better or worse than others who may have tried to step in at that point.

Re: the popularity, what you point out is pretty impressive but I think her unpopularity is objectively well-documented. In my post I linked to 538's history of her approval rating, which was never over 50% and was largely glued to 40%, though through all of 2024 until the end of July it was below 40% the whole time.
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Re: The 47th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

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....but he doesn't set interest rates.
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Re: The 47th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

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FUCK ICE
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Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

Post by BurtReynolds »

I don't feel like the shorter campaign was a big drawback. It probably helped her.

I was pretty shocked by how terribly her campaign was run, and how out of touch it was. The strategy in the beginning was clearly just to try to keep her hidden, both to not expose her weaknesses, and let Trump beat himself, but Trump actually ran a pretty great campaign. When the Harris campaign finally changed gears, it was too little and too late, and they had nothing to offer but "fascism fascism fascism" screeching.

I can't see her as anything other than a figurehead for some larger bureaucratic beast, and one that has become so stale and unwieldy that it can't even defend itself. Which is why claims that she lost due to sexism or racism ring false to me. You have to be a person first before someone can be sexist towards you. She was an empty suit.
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Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

Post by Higgs »

Moot point, but do you really think the US would have voted for Michelle Obama over Trump in this election? Genuinely interested in my RM US friends take on this as I can't see how any woman will become President in my lifetime at this stage.
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Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

Post by B »

Michelle Obama would have won? Great. A Beyonce/Swift ticket would have cleaned up too.
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Re: The 47th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

Post by 4/5 »

tragabigzanda wrote:No, but he will effectively regulate both public and private markets via planned overhaul of the FTC, so I believe the market’s tail will be wagging the Fed’s dog.
I lowkey believe the Fed doesn't meaningfully "set" interest rates at all these days.

Trump's actions will affect interest rates like any president's, the irony of course is that his preferred policies will lead to higher interest rates and I doubt he's capable of understanding that.
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Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump

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Higgs wrote:Moot point, but do you really think the US would have voted for Michelle Obama over Trump in this election? Genuinely interested in my RM US friends take on this as I can't see how any woman will become President in my lifetime at this stage.

Michelle Obama would not have beat Trump this time through.
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