Anders wrote:It won't matter to the Trump supporters.
Great post. Hopefully that last paragraph can be changed in the future.McParadigm wrote:Here’s why I think voting for the budget bill was a mistake, and it has nothing to do with the bill:
Right now, America is walking away from all of its security agreements. We are torching trade deals, spitting on long-term economic partnerships, and turning our backs on strategic allies.
And there’s no resolution to that.
Every nation on earth is watching us bully our partners, and they are all learning the same obvious lesson from it: keep as far away as possible.
Why would you make any kind of an economic deal with a country that you now know might use that deal as leverage against you? Who might use it to intimidate you? Who might issue veiled military threats or degrade you? Who might just ignore it entirely?
Why would you buy weapons from a country that might decide to turn them off? Why would you plan a vacation to a place that might detain you for weeks, or longer, over a paperwork error that used to be resolved in minutes?
It’s evident that most conservative and many low attention voters have no idea how much the domestic greatness they see as an American birthright was a product of the things we are burning to the ground. I don’t think they realize how much their lives have benefitted from the existence of workplace protections, consumer protections, and national cybersecurity programs. I don’t think they realize how many rural clinics will close if government subsidies dry up, or how financially devastating it can be to have your elders be entirely financially dependent on you.
But there is no world where you blow all of these things up, and it makes America great again.
There’s no world where you blow all these things up, and it makes your life better.
There’s no such thing as a self-contained economic powerhouse. Just lonely losers.
Someday, I hope, we will be in the aftermath of this. We will be picking up the pieces and seeing what can still be rebuilt. And a lot of it…we won’t be able to. Just as the Tesla brand will never recover from this level of ignominy, nations and companies that look for new sources of the things that they used to buy from the United States will probably never come back.
But what might help us, when that time comes, would be the ability to point back at moments like this and say “See? There was always a political will here to fight against that stuff. America can be overrun by pathetic buffoonery…but we don’t give up the fight.”
Instead, what we have is a message that says “when destructive forces come to America, the people who oppose them won’t even bother to use the little leverage they have.” The newspapers will retreat. The universities will retreat. The political class will retreat. The new America is a nation of bullies and cowards….and neither of those groups are people worth partnering with. They're not worth a damn.
tragabigzanda wrote:Now I’m genuinely wondering if anyone in Trump’s orbit has ever put together a PowerPoint on what it looks like if the US loses a trade war.
I also think this entire conversation starts off on the wrong foot. What we’re creating isn’t a trade war, and isn’t something that can be “won.“ What we are doing is deleting partnerships, and telling the world that any contract the United States offers you is meaningless.tragabigzanda wrote:Maybe this isn’t entirely logical, but I’d tend to think of a government shutdown as having a near-term impact on trade squabbles; but the long-term impact of an unchecked Trump agenda would be where the war is potentially lost.Bi_3 wrote:tragabigzanda wrote:Now I’m genuinely wondering if anyone in Trump’s orbit has ever put together a PowerPoint on what it looks like if the US loses a trade war.
Isn’t this more likely if the government shuts down during the conflict?
Smooth brained America voted in a guy who’s declared bankruptcy six times.McParadigm wrote:Here’s why I think voting for the budget bill was a mistake, and it has nothing to do with the bill:
Right now, America is walking away from all of its security agreements. We are torching trade deals, spitting on long-term economic partnerships, and turning our backs on strategic allies.
And there’s no resolution to that.
Every nation on earth is watching us bully our partners, and they are all learning the same obvious lesson from it: keep as far away as possible.
Why would you make any kind of an economic deal with a country that you now know might use that deal as leverage against you? Who might use it to intimidate you? Who might issue veiled military threats or degrade you? Who might just ignore it entirely?
Why would you buy weapons from a country that might decide to turn them off? Why would you plan a vacation to a place that might detain you for weeks, or longer, over a paperwork error that used to be resolved in minutes?
It’s evident that most conservative and many low attention voters have no idea how much the domestic greatness they see as an American birthright was a product of the things we are burning to the ground. I don’t think they realize how much their lives have benefitted from the existence of workplace protections, consumer protections, and national cybersecurity programs. I don’t think they realize how many rural clinics will close if government subsidies dry up, or how financially devastating it can be to have your elders be entirely financially dependent on you.
But there is no world where you blow all of these things up, and it makes America great again.
There’s no world where you blow all these things up, and it makes your life better.
There’s no such thing as a self-contained economic powerhouse. Just lonely losers.
Someday, I hope, we will be in the aftermath of this. We will be picking up the pieces and seeing what can still be rebuilt. And a lot of it…we won’t be able to. Just as the Tesla brand will never recover from this level of ignominy, nations and companies that look for new sources of the things that they used to buy from the United States will probably never come back.
But what might help us, when that time comes, would be the ability to point back at moments like this and say “See? There was always a political will here to fight against that stuff. America can be overrun by pathetic buffoonery…but we don’t give up the fight.”
Instead, what we have is a message that says “when destructive forces come to America, the people who oppose them won’t even bother to use the little leverage they have.” The newspapers will retreat. The universities will retreat. The political class will retreat. The new America is a nation of bullies and cowards….and neither of those groups are people worth partnering with. They're not worth a damn.
Next time just don't bother96583UP wrote:i hate coming in this thread
Is this post super advanced or totally stupid and incoherent? I suspect it goes the way of a spam thread. Willfully ignored by most.96583UP wrote:i hate coming in this thread and am bored but trag i think it's pretty simple what they are trying to do
the US is $36 Trillion in debt
interest rates are high
the US has a very high interest debt service
the US has a bulge of Treasury issuance that needs to be-refinanced every 3-5 years. this is an anomaly that dates from the financial crisis when they had to cut rates to zero
they need to refinance the US debt burden but they don't want to do it at high rates
they want to lower interest rates
to do that, people (institutions) need to buy US Bonds -> Bond prices up -> Yields go down
for people to be compelled to buy US Bonds, you need a 'flight to quality' -> scare the shit out of markets
you can do that through increased unemployment (massive federal govt layoffs), tanking the stock market (tariff threats)
you can also do it if the Fed steps in and starts buying the bonds (QE). Right now the Fed are not doing that, but by June they should stop QT (QT was needed to head off inflation).
inflation is under control (notwithstanding plebe worries looking ahead about tariffs). there is enough shelter disinflation still in the lag pipeline and now energy is in the toilet, it's not gonna be a big deal.
also with the fear in this market drop, the top of the US economic bracket, which is responsible for much of the consumption, is spending less (lower wealth effect bc stock portfolios down). so consumption comes down, which is disinflationary. This gives the Fed more room to buy bonds and/or cut rates, without spurring inflation
then when rates are down, they refinance the govt debt
turn the money printer on and ramp things up again
Reagan admin fucked the economy intentionally in the 80s to get inflation down
this is similar to get yields down
the tariff debates can evaporate with a stroke of a pen
by end of year stock markets will be higher again
any entity that owns US Treasury Bondsdimejinky99 wrote:In debt to who?
