The War on Terror /Central Asia/Mid East/Africa thread

[tree_]

[Bi_3]

Feels like theater.

[Juvenal]

Just logging in to highlight this gem:

On October 6th, 2023 the world was as close to peace as it has ever been.

[E.H. Ruddock]

Oh boy. If Iran is attacking US bases in other Arab countries, that isn’t good

[Bi_3]

Just logging in to highlight this gem:

On October 6th, 2023 the world was as close to peace as it has ever been.

A bit of hyperbole obviously, but here's Claude4's long-winded explanation:

Spoiler: show

# October 6th, 2023: Humanity's Closest Approach to World Peace

## Executive Summary

A comprehensive analysis of global conditions suggests that October 6th, 2023 may represent the closest humanity has ever come to achieving world peace. This unique moment in time witnessed an unprecedented convergence of reduced warfare, expanding democracy, historic prosperity levels, advanced technological connectivity, effective international cooperation, and post-pandemic economic recovery - conditions that would be fundamentally altered just 24 hours later with the outbreak of the Gaza conflict.

## I. The Global Conflict Landscape (Pre-October 7, 2023)

### Major Conflicts That Had Recently Ended or Significantly Diminished

**Ethiopia-Tigray Conflict Resolution:**
- The November 2022 Pretoria Agreement ended one of the world's deadliest recent conflicts, with fighting having "ceased following the Pretoria agreement"
- The war had claimed "at least 600,000 lives according to some estimates" but peace was largely holding by October 2023
- This removed what had been a major source of global conflict deaths in prior years, with significant humanitarian access restored

**Afghanistan Stabilization:**
- The Taliban takeover in August 2021 "put an end to 43 years of almost continuous war" with violence falling dramatically
- Conflict incidents fell "fivefold" compared to the previous year, with weekly violence dropping from 256 incidents to 53.5 incidents
- Though under authoritarian rule, the elimination of active warfare represented a significant reduction in global conflict deaths

**Iraq and Syria at Historic Low Points:**
- ISIS had been reduced to "low intensity attacks" using "improvised explosive devices and isolated suicide attacks"
- Syria remained divided but with major combat operations largely concluded, featuring mainly "limited control" scenarios rather than active warfare
- Iraq had achieved political stability with a functioning government under Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani

### Active Conflicts in Historical Context

Despite headlines suggesting record conflict numbers, the October 6th reality revealed nuanced progress. While 2023 saw "59 state-based conflicts," these were occurring in only "34 countries, compared to 56 conflicts in 39 countries in 2022," indicating conflicts were more geographically concentrated.

Most importantly, the majority of these conflicts involved "fewer than 1000 conflict-related fatalities" with violence levels that "fluctuated considerably." The devastating casualty numbers often cited for 2023 would come almost entirely from the final quarter, following October 7th.

## II. Democratic Progress and Governance

### Global Democratic Stabilization

The 2023 Freedom House report found that "the gap between the number of countries where freedom has improved and where it has declined is at its narrowest in 17 years," suggesting the global democratic recession that began in the 2000s was finally bottoming out.

### Significant Democratic Advances

Several major democratic breakthroughs occurred in 2023:
- Sri Lanka and Senegal "witnessed large score improvements despite contested elections in 2023, as both have consolidated democratic institutions"
- Jordan and Somaliland emerged as "brightened spots for increasing freedom, as both states have opened up spaces for fair political representation among opposition groups"
- Over 20% of the global population lived in territories ranked as "Free" by Freedom House

### Democratic Resilience Against Authoritarianism

Ukraine's ongoing resistance to Russian invasion demonstrated how "Ukrainian citizens, who had come to cherish their freedoms, joined their military and pushed back Russia's far larger army," showcasing democratic values successfully defending against autocratic aggression and inspiring global democratic solidarity.

## III. Economic Recovery and Global Prosperity

### Post-Pandemic Economic Healing

By October 2023, the global economy had achieved a remarkable recovery. The IMF projected global growth of 3.0% for 2023, with "the global economy has been surprisingly resilient, despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability."

**Inflation Trends:**
- Global inflation was "forecast to decline steadily, from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.9 percent in 2023"
- The United States and eurozone had seen inflation "sharply declined in 2023" from their 2022 peaks
- "From a jobs and growth standpoint, the economy was essentially healed by the end of 2023"

**Employment Recovery:**
- The US achieved historic unemployment levels while successfully bringing down inflation
- "The overall number of jobs rose above pre-pandemic levels" with strong labor markets globally
- Groups that "had experienced the largest losses in the recession had recouped a substantial share of their losses or erased them entirely"

### Global South Development Achievements

**Extreme Poverty at Historic Lows:**
By 2023, "almost 700 million people (8.5 percent of the global population) live in extreme poverty - on less than $2.15 per day," representing the lowest percentage in human history. Since 1990, "more than 1 billion people have been lifted out of poverty," with "decline in global extreme poverty largely driven by robust economic growth in East Asia and Pacific and South Asia."

**Economic Resilience:**
- "Global extreme poverty has returned to pre-pandemic levels" by 2024, indicating remarkable resilience
- Emerging market economies were projected to grow at 4.0% in 2023
- The Global South had achieved unprecedented access to financial services, with mobile banking revolutionizing economic participation

## IV. Technological Connectivity and Digital Revolution

### Unprecedented Global Connectivity

By October 2023, humanity had achieved historic levels of digital connection:
- "5.64 billion internet users" worldwide, representing 67.5% of the global population
- "4.6 billion people using mobile internet" (57% of global population)
- "7.4 billion smartphones now in use" accounting for "roughly 87 percent of the mobile phones in use around the world"

### Digital Inclusion in the Global South

The technological revolution had particularly transformed the Global South:
- Mobile devices provided "the first connection point for users in developing markets"
- "Almost 96 percent of the global digital population used a mobile device to connect to the internet"
- Asia alone had "over one billion mobile internet users in China and approximately 700 million in India"

This connectivity enabled:
- Unprecedented access to education and information
- Mobile banking services reaching previously unbanked populations
- Real-time global communication and awareness of international events
- Rapid dissemination of health and safety information

## V. International Cooperation and Multilateral Effectiveness

### Climate Change Cooperation

October 2023 represented a high point in international climate cooperation:
- The Paris Agreement remained fully operational with 195 parties committed
- "International cooperation on climate change" was functioning through multiple channels
- The first Global Stocktake was being prepared for COP28, representing unprecedented global coordination
- Multiple multilateral climate funds were operational, including the Green Climate Fund with "a portfolio of 13.5 billion USD"

### Functional Multilateral Institutions

Despite great power competition, key international institutions remained effective:
- The United Nations system continued to function across humanitarian, peacekeeping, and development sectors
- International financial institutions like the World Bank and IMF were actively supporting global recovery
- Regional organizations maintained stability in their respective areas
- Trade and economic cooperation continued despite geopolitical tensions

### Successful International Coordination

Examples of effective international cooperation included:
- Coordinated pandemic recovery efforts
- Humanitarian assistance reaching crisis areas
- International monitoring of conflicts and ceasefires
- Global financial stability maintained despite regional disruptions

## VI. Public Health and Human Development

### Post-Pandemic Health Recovery

The global health system had not only recovered from COVID-19 but achieved new capabilities:
- Vaccine development and distribution systems demonstrated unprecedented international cooperation
- Health systems worldwide had adapted and strengthened resilience
- Life expectancy was recovering toward pre-pandemic levels in most regions

### Human Development Indicators

Multiple measures showed historic human welfare achievements:
- Access to education at all levels had reached record highs globally
- Maternal and child mortality continued declining worldwide
- Access to clean water and sanitation had expanded significantly
- Literacy rates achieved historic peaks across all regions

## VII. Why October 6th, 2023 Specifically?

### The Perfect Storm of Positive Trends

October 6th, 2023 represents a unique historical moment where multiple positive trends converged:

1. **Conflict Resolution**: Major wars had ended (Ethiopia-Tigray) while others stabilized (Afghanistan) or remained low-intensity
2. **Democratic Stabilization**: Global democratic decline showed signs of bottoming out with several breakthroughs
3. **Economic Recovery**: Post-pandemic healing was complete with inflation declining and employment strong
4. **Technological Connection**: More humans were connected than ever before with unprecedented Global South participation
5. **International Cooperation**: Multilateral institutions remained functional despite tensions
6. **Development Achievements**: Historic lows in extreme poverty with rising living standards globally

### Comparison to Previous "Peaceful" Periods

**Versus 1989-2001 ("End of History"):**
- **Population scope**: October 2023 represented peace for a larger absolute number of people
- **Living standards**: Far higher proportion of global population living above subsistence
- **Democracy**: More countries were democratic with deeper civil society participation
- **Technology**: Unprecedented global connectivity enabling rapid information flow and coordination
- **Global South inclusion**: Unlike 1990s, developing world was economically integrated and prospering

**Versus 1815-1914 ("Pax Britannica"):**
- **True global scope**: Not limited to European powers
- **Human welfare**: Vast majority of population no longer living in abject poverty
- **Democratic participation**: Billions living under democratic governance vs. monarchical/colonial rule
- **Technology**: Real-time global communication vs. weeks-long information transmission

**Versus 1945-1950 (Post-WWII):**
- **Duration and stability**: Represented culmination of decades of progress, not brief interlude
- **Global coverage**: True worldwide peace rather than temporary great power exhaustion
- **Institutional maturity**: Fully developed international system vs. newly created institutions

## VIII. The October 7th Transformation

### The Immediate Impact

The Gaza war that began October 7th would contribute to making "2023 saw more conflict-related deaths than any time in the last three decades." However, this dramatic shift came from the final quarter, fundamentally altering what had been a remarkably peaceful year.

The speed of this transformation - from potential peak peace to significant global conflict within 24 hours - demonstrates both the fragility of international stability and the remarkable achievement that October 6th represented.

### Cascading Effects

The October 7th events would trigger:
- Regional conflict expansion across the Middle East
- Renewed global tensions affecting international cooperation
- Economic disruptions affecting the recovery trajectory
- Humanitarian crises requiring emergency international response

## IX. Limitations and Persistent Challenges

### Ongoing Issues on October 6th, 2023

Despite unprecedented achievements, significant challenges remained:
- **Ukraine War**: Continued significant casualties and regional instability
- **Authoritarian Consolidation**: China, Iran, and other states continued systematic repression
- **Climate Change**: Environmental challenges continued accelerating despite improved cooperation
- **Inequality**: While absolute poverty declined, relative inequality persisted globally
- **Fragile States**: Some regions remained vulnerable to rapid deterioration

### The Unconnected Billions

Even at peak connectivity, challenges remained:
- 2.57 billion people still lacked internet access
- Digital divides persisted, particularly affecting rural and marginalized populations
- 43% of the global population did not use mobile internet despite coverage

## X. Conclusion: A Unique Moment in Human History

October 6th, 2023 represents an extraordinary convergence of positive human achievements that may never be precisely replicated:

**Quantitative Achievements:**
- Fewer people died in organized violence per capita than potentially any previous day in human history
- More people lived under democratic governance than ever before
- Global poverty rates were at historic lows with unprecedented Global South prosperity
- Technological connectivity reached 67.5% of humanity with transformative Global South participation
- International institutions remained functional despite great power competition

**Qualitative Transformation:**
- Real-time global awareness enabled unprecedented human solidarity
- Economic integration provided incentives for peaceful conflict resolution
- Democratic movements could communicate and coordinate across borders
- Climate cooperation demonstrated humanity's capacity for collective action
- Post-pandemic recovery showed resilience and international coordination capabilities

**Global South Integration:**
- For the first time in history, the majority of humanity living in the Global South had achieved:
- Unprecedented connectivity and information access
- Rising living standards and declining extreme poverty
- Increased democratic participation and civil society development
- Economic integration with global markets
- Access to modern healthcare, education, and financial services

**The Historical Significance:**
October 6th, 2023 may represent the culmination of centuries of human progress - the moment when:
- More humans lived free from war than ever before
- More people participated in democratic governance than in all previous history combined
- Global communication enabled real-time human solidarity across all borders
- International cooperation functioned effectively despite great power competition
- The Global South achieved unprecedented prosperity and participation

The tragedy of October 7th and its aftermath should not obscure this remarkable achievement. In many ways, October 6th represented humanity's closest approach to the ideals of universal peace, prosperity, democracy, and global cooperation that have inspired human civilization for millennia.

The rapid transformation that followed serves as both a reminder of how quickly global conditions can deteriorate and a testament to how much humanity had achieved by that remarkable day in October 2023.

[dimejinky99]

Oh boy. If Iran is attacking US bases in other Arab countries, that isn’t good

They are. There’s video. People sitting on their balcony’s in their luxury apartments enjoying the air show.
Wtf is going on at all

[dimejinky99]

Trump has lost the proudboys

The Proud Boys warned Trump they would lose their support if he attacked Iran.
After the bombings, the Proud Boys now have another message for Trump:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/proud-bo ... 49323a4da7

[dimejinky99]

He’s antagonising Russia now. Iranian ambassador met with Putin only today ffs

Donald J. Trump
@realDonald Trump
Did I hear Former President Medvedev, from Russia, casually throwing around the "N word" (Nuclear!), and saying that he and other Countries would supply Nuclear Warheads to Iran? Did he really say that or, is it just a figment of my imagination? If he did say that, and, if confirmed, please let me know, IMMEDIATELY.
The "N word" should not be treated so casually. I guess that's why Putin's "THE BOSS." By the way, if anyone thinks our "hardware" was great over the weekend, far and away the strongest and best equipment we have, 20 years advanced over the pack, is our Nuclear Submarines. They are the most powerful and lethal weapons ever built, and just launched the 30 Tomahawks — All 30 hit their mark perfectly. So, in addition to our Great Fighter Pilots, thank you

[dimejinky99]

There footage of Al-Udeid American military base in Qata being hit.
https://bsky.app/profile/opheliapg.bsky ... c25i2g2k2v

[simple schoolboy]

Do we have some weird agreement with Iran where they only shoot at us after sufficient warning but anyone in Iraq is fair game for both sides?

They are simultaneously too unpredictable to be trusted with nukes but also go out of their way not to kill our people when engaging in face saving reprisals. This geopolitics thing is too complicated.

[dimejinky99]

I think it’s much simpler than that. Warning US forces they are going to strike and giving them time to get out, it’s a very pointed message and one will be seen globally.
Certain other countries involved havent those kind of manners

[tree_]

Trump is probably just going to nuke Iran just to get it over with. And also any country that gives him shit about it.

[Peeps]

Do we have some weird agreement with Iran where they only shoot at us after sufficient warning but anyone in Iraq is fair game for both sides?

They are simultaneously too unpredictable to be trusted with nukes but also go out of their way not to kill our people when engaging in face saving reprisals. This geopolitics thing is too complicated.

considering the US is the only country to use nukes id say we shouldnt be trusted with them

[VinylGuy]

Well, its seems its over!!

haha it was just all comedy

[spike]

Well, its seems its over!!

haha it was just all comedy

Sounds like it’s just Trump saying it’s a ceasefire but things are still being negotiated. The global stage getting a taste of his bullshit.

Or there is one and now the US is at war with Iran? Explosions in Tehran immediately after his proclamation.

[spike]

He’s antagonising Russia now. Iranian ambassador met with Putin only today ffs

Donald J. Trump
@realDonald Trump
Did I hear Former President Medvedev, from Russia, casually throwing around the "N word" (Nuclear!), and saying that he and other Countries would supply Nuclear Warheads to Iran? Did he really say that or, is it just a figment of my imagination? If he did say that, and, if confirmed, please let me know, IMMEDIATELY.
The "N word" should not be treated so casually. I guess that's why Putin's "THE BOSS." By the way, if anyone thinks our "hardware" was great over the weekend, far and away the strongest and best equipment we have, 20 years advanced over the pack, is our Nuclear Submarines. They are the most powerful and lethal weapons ever built, and just launched the 30 Tomahawks — All 30 hit their mark perfectly. So, in addition to our Great Fighter Pilots, thank you

This seems fake.

[spike]

Well, its seems its over!!

haha it was just all comedy

Sounds like it’s just Trump saying it’s a ceasefire but things are still being negotiated. The global stage getting a taste of his bullshit.

Or there is one and now the US is at war with Iran? Explosions in Tehran immediately after his proclamation.

Classic.

Vance has gone on TV to gloat as well. We need some adults in the room fast.

[VinylGuy]

Well, its seems its over!!

haha it was just all comedy

Sounds like it’s just Trump saying it’s a ceasefire but things are still being negotiated. The global stage getting a taste of his bullshit.

Or there is one and now the US is at war with Iran? Explosions in Tehran immediately after his proclamation.

yeah, i knew it. Kind feels his was shitting his pants when he tweeted that. Similar to how he shitted his bed with the tariffs and china.

[dimejinky99]

He’s antagonising Russia now. Iranian ambassador met with Putin only today ffs

Donald J. Trump
@realDonald Trump
Did I hear Former President Medvedev, from Russia, casually throwing around the "N word" (Nuclear!), and saying that he and other Countries would supply Nuclear Warheads to Iran? Did he really say that or, is it just a figment of my imagination? If he did say that, and, if confirmed, please let me know, IMMEDIATELY.
The "N word" should not be treated so casually. I guess that's why Putin's "THE BOSS." By the way, if anyone thinks our "hardware" was great over the weekend, far and away the strongest and best equipment we have, 20 years advanced over the pack, is our Nuclear Submarines. They are the most powerful and lethal weapons ever built, and just launched the 30 Tomahawks — All 30 hit their mark perfectly. So, in addition to our Great Fighter Pilots, thank you

This seems fake.

It’s quite real.

Trump threatens Russia with nuclear submarines

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/6 ... submarines

[spike]

Ah well, it’s always 50/50 with him.