Election 2016

[Norah]

Guys, he's gonna be your nominee.

Wait until Super Tuesday and the rest of the GOP rallies behind a single candidate to oppose him.

[stip]

Carsons supporters will split between trump and Cruz. Cruz won't drop. There are not enough votes tensing to best him. And there is no reason to assume trump will implode at this point.

That's not to say he won't. But it's hardly inevitable.


Hell, 2/3rds of republican voters support his ban. Once again trump is out in front of the rest and they will be struggling to catch up to him.

And as long as his threat to bolt the party exists it will be that much harder to find a candidate to unify behind him

[stip]

Trump is polling pretty well in the Super Tuesday states, too.

[Simple Torture]

I'm not necessarily putting much stock in this poll (http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracke ... ember-2015) but it does puzzle me. I've been following things pretty closely, and I don't feel like Christie has gotten much press time lately; so how does he surge in a poll? A big ad buy? When I lived in Massachusetts, there used to be tons of ads on before and during primary season (NH doesn't have its own CBS or NBC stations, so everything goes over the border), but now that I'm down in Rhode Island, it's harder to read.

[McParadigm]

Today one of my wife's relatives put a picture up on her Facebook page: "TRUMP-PALIN 2016 SAVE AMERICA"

Her previous post was a request that people pray for her son's friend, who was tragicly (sic) injured while riding on a 4 wheeler with a hunting rifle (follow up question from another poster: "Was the rifle damaged?").

[4/5]

While a Trump win is certainly becoming more likely than it looked before, I still think it's early and that there are temporary circumstances that are helping him right now.

Within the party you have candidates falling into basic categories:

Conservative outsider: Carson, Fiorina
Tea Party: Cruz, Rubio (kinda)
Moderate/establishment: Bush, Christie, Kasich, Rubio (kinda)
Libertarian: Paul
Social/religious conservative: Huckabee, Santorum
Loud rich guy successfully channeling Republican anger/dissatisfaction: Trump

Obviously there's overlap among many of these candidates and some are trying to appeal to multiple groups. I know I could have put Trump with Carson and Fiorina but he's so different than them that just didn't seem right because I don't know how accurate it would be to call him "conservative" and he's just in another league than those two.

My point is that every candidate besides Trump has a specific base from which his support comes from but because there are so many candidates fighting over overlapping groups of voters many of the candidates are having a very hard time breaking away from the pack. Of course, Trump doesn't have that problem. He isn't appealing to any single faction of the party, rather he simply appeals to the fear/anger that Republicans are feeling. I read yesterday that something like 51% of his supporters say that he is their candidate and they will not change their mind. Who knows whether that'll hold up, but it is probably pretty clear that he has a base level of support that will keep him in this race for a long time. But it's also possible that their is a relatively low ceiling on his potential. At the same time, as some of these candidates drop out, the chances increase that some of these groups' (moderate/tea party/religious, etc) support will coalesce around a specific candidate or two.

I think Trump is still aided by the fact that the field is so crowded and the longer it stays that way the better for him. If the party is serious about taking Trump down sooner than later, without doing so in an overt manner that would guarantee that he launch a third party bid, I think they need to begin exerting substantial pressure on some of these candidates to drop out within the next 3-4 weeks. Even if the departing candidates don't have much support I think it will help when they have clear delineations like: He is our moderate candidate, she is our outsider, he's our tea party candidate, and there's Trump. I don't think they want to go to the NH primary with the field this crowded.

[Norah]

I'm not necessarily putting much stock in this poll (http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracke ... ember-2015) but it does puzzle me. I've been following things pretty closely, and I don't feel like Christie has gotten much press time lately; so how does he surge in a poll? A big ad buy? When I lived in Massachusetts, there used to be tons of ads on before and during primary season (NH doesn't have its own CBS or NBC stations, so everything goes over the border), but now that I'm down in Rhode Island, it's harder to read.

I'm seeing a lot of political ads (mostly Jeb and Christie, but now same Fiorina) on Jeopardy every night here in Boston.

[Norah]

While a Trump win is certainly becoming more likely than it looked before, I still think it's early and that there are temporary circumstances that are helping him right now.

Within the party you have candidates falling into basic categories:

Conservative outsider: Carson, Fiorina
Tea Party: Cruz, Rubio (kinda)
Moderate/establishment: Bush, Christie, Kasich, Rubio (kinda)
Libertarian: Paul
Social/religious conservative: Huckabee, Santorum
Loud rich guy successfully channeling Republican anger/dissatisfaction: Trump

Obviously there's overlap among many of these candidates and some are trying to appeal to multiple groups. I know I could have put Trump with Carson and Fiorina but he's so different than them that just didn't seem right because I don't know how accurate it would be to call him "conservative" and he's just in another league than those two.

My point is that every candidate besides Trump has a specific base from which his support comes from but because there are so many candidates fighting over overlapping groups of voters many of the candidates are having a very hard time breaking away from the pack. Of course, Trump doesn't have that problem. He isn't appealing to any single faction of the party, rather he simply appeals to the fear/anger that Republicans are feeling. I read yesterday that something like 51% of his supporters say that he is their candidate and they will not change their mind. Who knows whether that'll hold up, but it is probably pretty clear that he has a base level of support that will keep him in this race for a long time. But it's also possible that their is a relatively low ceiling on his potential. At the same time, as some of these candidates drop out, the chances increase that some of these groups' (moderate/tea party/religious, etc) support will coalesce around a specific candidate or two.

I think Trump is still aided by the fact that the field is so crowded and the longer it stays that way the better for him. If the party is serious about taking Trump down sooner than later, without doing so in an overt manner that would guarantee that he launch a third party bid, I think they need to begin exerting substantial pressure on some of these candidates to drop out within the next 3-4 weeks. Even if the departing candidates don't have much support I think it will help when they have clear delineations like: He is our moderate candidate, she is our outsider, he's our tea party candidate, and there's Trump. I don't think they want to go to the NH primary with the field this crowded.

I'd suspect this happens in February, after New Hampshire, not before.

[McParadigm]

At this point they have to be at least a little paranoid that candidate drops will create more of a Trump base. There's a lot of historical precedence that when lesser candidates drop out, a disproportionate number of their supporters turn to whoever has gotten the most media attention so far...even when that candidate's philosophy is not a great match for their own.

[Norah]

At this point they have to be at least a little paranoid that candidate drops will create more of a Trump base. There's a lot of historical precedence that when lesser candidates drop out, a disproportionate number of their supporters turn to whoever has gotten the most media attention so far...even when that candidate's philosophy is not a great match for their own.

Yeah, but what other option is there?

[Green Habit]

I'm enjoying the deluge of "even Marine Le Pen thinks Trump should STFU" takes I'm seeing on the internet right now.

[stip]

Donald should know you aren't supposed to say this out loud!

[Green Habit]

Donald should know you aren't supposed to say this out loud!

[stip]

While a Trump win is certainly becoming more likely than it looked before, I still think it's early and that there are temporary circumstances that are helping him right now.

Within the party you have candidates falling into basic categories:

Conservative outsider: Carson, Fiorina
Tea Party: Cruz, Rubio (kinda)
Moderate/establishment: Bush, Christie, Kasich, Rubio (kinda)
Libertarian: Paul
Social/religious conservative: Huckabee, Santorum
Loud rich guy successfully channeling Republican anger/dissatisfaction: Trump

Obviously there's overlap among many of these candidates and some are trying to appeal to multiple groups. I know I could have put Trump with Carson and Fiorina but he's so different than them that just didn't seem right because I don't know how accurate it would be to call him "conservative" and he's just in another league than those two.

My point is that every candidate besides Trump has a specific base from which his support comes from but because there are so many candidates fighting over overlapping groups of voters many of the candidates are having a very hard time breaking away from the pack. Of course, Trump doesn't have that problem. He isn't appealing to any single faction of the party, rather he simply appeals to the fear/anger that Republicans are feeling. I read yesterday that something like 51% of his supporters say that he is their candidate and they will not change their mind. Who knows whether that'll hold up, but it is probably pretty clear that he has a base level of support that will keep him in this race for a long time. But it's also possible that their is a relatively low ceiling on his potential. At the same time, as some of these candidates drop out, the chances increase that some of these groups' (moderate/tea party/religious, etc) support will coalesce around a specific candidate or two.

I think Trump is still aided by the fact that the field is so crowded and the longer it stays that way the better for him. If the party is serious about taking Trump down sooner than later, without doing so in an overt manner that would guarantee that he launch a third party bid, I think they need to begin exerting substantial pressure on some of these candidates to drop out within the next 3-4 weeks. Even if the departing candidates don't have much support I think it will help when they have clear delineations like: He is our moderate candidate, she is our outsider, he's our tea party candidate, and there's Trump. I don't think they want to go to the NH primary with the field this crowded.

Just remember there is only part of the Republican party that is freaking out about trump, and that is the establishment/party officials, and maybe the 'moderate' wing. The rest of those groups (the Tea Party, the outsiders, the libertarians, the religious conservatives) have a rocky relationship with the party anyway. They don't like it. They feel it's been lying to them/breaking promises, that they aren't ideologically pure enough. What makes you think these groups would be more attracted to an establishment candidate than Trump? Adding up the moderates doesn't get you anywhere close to the numbers that you need to block the nomination.

Remember, too, that Trump's views are NOT outside the boundaries of acceptable Republican policy. They are presented more baldly than usual, and there is some wish fulfillment in here. But he's in the ballpark. And if you like Trump, even if you think he goes too far on some issues, are you really going to abandon everything else you like about this candidate because he's too harsh towards muslims and mexicans? That's the issue that causes you to break with a candidate? Not in this cycle.

[Green Habit]

So, if Trump wins the nomination, and he crashes and burns in the general election, does the RNC change the rules giving party insiders more weight to their votes? They're certainly within their right to do so, and while there's a PR hit of looking less (small d) democratic, it's probably better than the PR hit they took from nominating Trump in the first place.

[stip]

Lets go with a final group of

Trump
Cruz
Rubio

I'm going to use the most recent RCP polling average.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3823.html

Each candidate starts with the following base

Trump: 30.4
Cruz: 15.6
Rubio: 13.6

I'm giving Rubio Bush, Christie, Fiorina and Kasich. That's worth an additional 10.6
I don't know how to parcel out Paul. I'll give him to Rubio anyway. He's young and hip and will appeal to the libertarian hipsters. That's 2.2

This gives rubio 26.4 Still less than Trump.

Lets look at the social conservative block Carson, Huckabee, and Santorum). That's a total of 15% right there. Cruz is a logical heir apparent but right now the evangelicals seem to like trump more. Lets even grant that some of this base is more concerned about electabiltiy (not likely given the candidates we are talking about but why not). We'll split this 15% between the three. We are now at:

Trump 35.4
Rubio 31.4
Cruz: 20.6

This reflects a likely best case scenario for Rubio. None of these candidates are likely to drop out. Cruz is despised by his party and he returns the feeling. he won't walk to support Rubio. Trump is in the lead and won't be willing to give that up to play kingmaker. Even if Cruz dropped out there's no reason to think the majority of that support would go to Rubio over Trump, since Rubio will be the establishment candidate. Trump doesn't even need to get to 50% since most of the later states are winner take all. He just needs the plurality.

If I was the establishment right now I'd be working on cozying up to Trump and trying to groom him, not contest him.

[stip]

So, if Trump wins the nomination, and he crashes and burns in the general election, does the RNC change the rules giving party insiders more weight to their votes? They're certainly within their right to do so, and while there's a PR hit of looking less (small d) democratic, it's probably better than the PR hit they took from nominating Trump in the first place.

They'll totally do it since the American people don't understand or give a shit about process. Any PR hit will have long faded by the time the next election rolls around. The only risk they have is a third party splinter group.

[stip]

I'm going to up my Trump probability to 65%.

[McParadigm]

On to the next question, then: if a lunatic joke of a reality show cartoon DOES end up as the Republican nominee....how will the Democrats successfully fuck up what should be an easy win?

[Green Habit]

We are now at:

Trump 35.4
Rubio 31.4
Cruz: 20.6

This reflects a likely best case scenario for Rubio. None of these candidates are likely to drop out. Cruz is despised by his party and he returns the feeling. he won't walk to support Rubio. Trump is in the lead and won't be willing to give that up to play kingmaker. Even if Cruz dropped out there's no reason to think the majority of that support would go to Rubio over Trump, since Rubio will be the establishment candidate. Trump doesn't even need to get to 50% since most of the later states are winner take all. He just needs the plurality.

If I was the establishment right now I'd be working on cozying up to Trump and trying to groom him, not contest him.

Could Cruz be mollified with a promise of a high-profile office in a Rubio administration--like, say, Attorney General? Or to pull an Earl Warren and demand he be the first nomination for the Supreme Court? (Both of those scenarios would royally suck, by the way--just trying to think of what it would take.)