Election 2016

[stip]

They will underestimate the appeal of the lunatic joke of a reality show cartoon.


Woman to Adelai Stevenson in 1956 campaign: "Senator, you have the vote of every thinking person!"
Stevenson: "That's not enough, madam, we need a majority!"

[Green Habit]

On to the next question, then: if a lunatic joke of a reality show cartoon DOES end up as the Republican nominee....how will the Democrats successfully fuck up what should be an easy win?

Not necessarily a fuck up, but "it's the economy, stupid".

[Norah]

On to the next question, then: if a lunatic joke of a reality show cartoon DOES end up as the Republican nominee....how will the Democrats successfully fuck up what should be an easy win?

Easy game on the schedule syndrome. They'll not campaign as hard as they would have against a stronger candidate, taking their eventual win for granted, and shockingly lose. Just like Martha Coakley did against Scott Brown after Ted Kennedy died.

[Strat]

Ben Carson now threatening to run as an ind pendant because the RNC is talking about making sure neither of them get the nominee? Lol.

In any case. If the dem's fuck this up.....

[McParadigm]

I was more thinking that the Repubs would misquote or misrepresent something the Dems did, and the Dems would do their usual bang-up job of accidentally supporting the obfuscation. You know...business as usual.

[4/5]

Lets go with a final group of

Trump
Cruz
Rubio

I'm going to use the most recent RCP polling average.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3823.html

Each candidate starts with the following base

Trump: 30.4
Cruz: 15.6
Rubio: 13.6

I'm giving Rubio Bush, Christie, Fiorina and Kasich. That's worth an additional 10.6
I don't know how to parcel out Paul. I'll give him to Rubio anyway. He's young and hip and will appeal to the libertarian hipsters. That's 2.2

This gives rubio 26.4 Still less than Trump.

Lets look at the social conservative block Carson, Huckabee, and Santorum). That's a total of 15% right there. Cruz is a logical heir apparent but right now the evangelicals seem to like trump more. Lets even grant that some of this base is more concerned about electabiltiy (not likely given the candidates we are talking about but why not). We'll split this 15% between the three. We are now at:

Trump 35.4
Rubio 31.4
Cruz: 20.6

This reflects a likely best case scenario for Rubio. None of these candidates are likely to drop out. Cruz is despised by his party and he returns the feeling. he won't walk to support Rubio. Trump is in the lead and won't be willing to give that up to play kingmaker. Even if Cruz dropped out there's no reason to think the majority of that support would go to Rubio over Trump, since Rubio will be the establishment candidate. Trump doesn't even need to get to 50% since most of the later states are winner take all. He just needs the plurality.

If I was the establishment right now I'd be working on cozying up to Trump and trying to groom him, not contest him.

I don't have time to really reply or even read everything at the moment. But I think you're taking these polling numbers too literally right now. I don't think it's as simple as "moderate totals = 10%" so the most a single moderate can have is 10%.

My basic premise is that 20-30% of the vote sounds great right now since it's so much more than everybody else, but what if there's a ceiling on his potential, as in the people who could be talked into supporting Trump already do? 20-30% is alright 50 days before the first caucus when there are 14 candidates, but if he maxes out at 35% will that still work when there are only 2-4 viable candidates? Right now Republicans are putting "strong leader" and "fight ISIS" as things that are more important than electablility. Will that trend change?

[Electromatic]

Does anyone here actually know anyone truly considering voting for Trump?

[stip]

Definitely.

[stip]

Lets go with a final group of

Trump
Cruz
Rubio

I'm going to use the most recent RCP polling average.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3823.html

Each candidate starts with the following base

Trump: 30.4
Cruz: 15.6
Rubio: 13.6

I'm giving Rubio Bush, Christie, Fiorina and Kasich. That's worth an additional 10.6
I don't know how to parcel out Paul. I'll give him to Rubio anyway. He's young and hip and will appeal to the libertarian hipsters. That's 2.2

This gives rubio 26.4 Still less than Trump.

Lets look at the social conservative block Carson, Huckabee, and Santorum). That's a total of 15% right there. Cruz is a logical heir apparent but right now the evangelicals seem to like trump more. Lets even grant that some of this base is more concerned about electabiltiy (not likely given the candidates we are talking about but why not). We'll split this 15% between the three. We are now at:

Trump 35.4
Rubio 31.4
Cruz: 20.6

This reflects a likely best case scenario for Rubio. None of these candidates are likely to drop out. Cruz is despised by his party and he returns the feeling. he won't walk to support Rubio. Trump is in the lead and won't be willing to give that up to play kingmaker. Even if Cruz dropped out there's no reason to think the majority of that support would go to Rubio over Trump, since Rubio will be the establishment candidate. Trump doesn't even need to get to 50% since most of the later states are winner take all. He just needs the plurality.

If I was the establishment right now I'd be working on cozying up to Trump and trying to groom him, not contest him.

I don't have time to really reply or even read everything at the moment. But I think you're taking these polling numbers too literally right now. I don't think it's as simple as "moderate totals = 10%" so the most a single moderate can have is 10%.

My basic premise is that 20-30% of the vote sounds great right now since it's so much more than everybody else, but what if there's a ceiling on his potential, as in the people who could be talked into supporting Trump already do? 20-30% is alright 50 days before the first caucus when there are 14 candidates, but if he maxes out at 35% will that still work when there are only 2-4 viable candidates? Right now Republicans are putting "strong leader" and "fight ISIS" as things that are more important than electable. Will that trend change?

I think he maxes out much higher, and you're overstating the appeal that the 'moderate' candidate is going to have. The percentage of the republican party voting base that is ready to get on the 'stop trump' campaign is not that high. It's not going to be the religious conservatives. Its not going to be the tea partiers. Keep in mind that the percentages I used up there were actually charitable to the stop trump candidate.

[Simple Torture]

Does anyone here actually know anyone truly considering voting for Trump?

Yes, but luckily, most of them are in blue states.

[4/5]

Lets go with a final group of

Trump
Cruz
Rubio

I'm going to use the most recent RCP polling average.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3823.html

Each candidate starts with the following base

Trump: 30.4
Cruz: 15.6
Rubio: 13.6

I'm giving Rubio Bush, Christie, Fiorina and Kasich. That's worth an additional 10.6
I don't know how to parcel out Paul. I'll give him to Rubio anyway. He's young and hip and will appeal to the libertarian hipsters. That's 2.2

This gives rubio 26.4 Still less than Trump.

Lets look at the social conservative block Carson, Huckabee, and Santorum). That's a total of 15% right there. Cruz is a logical heir apparent but right now the evangelicals seem to like trump more. Lets even grant that some of this base is more concerned about electabiltiy (not likely given the candidates we are talking about but why not). We'll split this 15% between the three. We are now at:

Trump 35.4
Rubio 31.4
Cruz: 20.6

This reflects a likely best case scenario for Rubio. None of these candidates are likely to drop out. Cruz is despised by his party and he returns the feeling. he won't walk to support Rubio. Trump is in the lead and won't be willing to give that up to play kingmaker. Even if Cruz dropped out there's no reason to think the majority of that support would go to Rubio over Trump, since Rubio will be the establishment candidate. Trump doesn't even need to get to 50% since most of the later states are winner take all. He just needs the plurality.

If I was the establishment right now I'd be working on cozying up to Trump and trying to groom him, not contest him.

I don't have time to really reply or even read everything at the moment. But I think you're taking these polling numbers too literally right now. I don't think it's as simple as "moderate totals = 10%" so the most a single moderate can have is 10%.

My basic premise is that 20-30% of the vote sounds great right now since it's so much more than everybody else, but what if there's a ceiling on his potential, as in the people who could be talked into supporting Trump already do? 20-30% is alright 50 days before the first caucus when there are 14 candidates, but if he maxes out at 35% will that still work when there are only 2-4 viable candidates? Right now Republicans are putting "strong leader" and "fight ISIS" as things that are more important than electable. Will that trend change?

I think he maxes out much higher, and you're overstating the appeal that the 'moderate' candidate is going to have. The percentage of the republican party voting base that is ready to get on the 'stop trump' campaign is not that high. It's not going to be the religious conservatives. Its not going to be the tea partiers. Keep in mind that the percentages I used up there were actually charitable to the stop trump candidate.

I think it'll come down to Trump vs. Stop Trump and I don't believe that a majority of Republican primary voters will support Trump.

But I also think that once people take a more critical look at his platform they'll realize that in a lot of ways he isn't very conservative at all. He favors publicly-funded healthcare...just not Obamacare, though he isn't very clear about how his government run wealth transfer program would be different than Obama's. He supports a progressive tax system, including higher taxes on the wealthy (although the tax plan on his site right now suggests a tax cut for everybody). He opposes free trade and supports protectionist policies. All anybody is focusing on right now is that he talks the toughest on defense issues, but his domestic policies are well to the left of the other candidates.

[4/5]

On to the next question, then: if a lunatic joke of a reality show cartoon DOES end up as the Republican nominee....how will the Democrats successfully fuck up what should be an easy win?

Not necessarily a fuck up, but "it's the economy, stupid".

I think the biggest threat to Democrats would be ISIS getting stronger/more terrorist attacks, although as far as Democrats go Hillary might be a good one to have as the candidate in this instance since she is somewhat hawkish as Democrats go.

They say that interest rate hikes typically have a six-month lag. So, if interest rates are raised as everybody expects this month, that puts us in June, a little before the general election really heats up. My guess is that this rate hike has become built into expectations for the last 12-18 months so it really won't have much of an effect, However throw in maybe another hike or two in February and March and you might have the setting for an economic pullback next fall.

[4/5]

I'm going to up my Trump probability to 65%.

For context, where do you put Hillary's probability?

[Strat]

Haven't they been expecting interest hikes for the past 2.5 years?

[4/5]

Haven't they been expecting interest hikes for the past 2.5 years?

At least a year and a half. This is the first time I've thought it would happen. In October The Fed basically said it would happen in December as long as the economic data remained strong. November's jobs report was very solid, there's finally some signs of inflation, and at this point NOT raising rates might do more harm because it could chip away at The Fed's credibility with the markets. It'll be just a 0.25 point increase and I'm sure they'll be very, very cautious raising rates in 2016 as they attempt to start the normalization process.

[stip]

I'm going to up my Trump probability to 65%.

For context, where do you put Hillary's probability?

85%. She is a lock barring a tremendous fuck up. Sanders will hang around to see if it happens

[stip]

Lets go with a final group of

Trump
Cruz
Rubio

I'm going to use the most recent RCP polling average.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3823.html

Each candidate starts with the following base

Trump: 30.4
Cruz: 15.6
Rubio: 13.6

I'm giving Rubio Bush, Christie, Fiorina and Kasich. That's worth an additional 10.6
I don't know how to parcel out Paul. I'll give him to Rubio anyway. He's young and hip and will appeal to the libertarian hipsters. That's 2.2

This gives rubio 26.4 Still less than Trump.

Lets look at the social conservative block Carson, Huckabee, and Santorum). That's a total of 15% right there. Cruz is a logical heir apparent but right now the evangelicals seem to like trump more. Lets even grant that some of this base is more concerned about electabiltiy (not likely given the candidates we are talking about but why not). We'll split this 15% between the three. We are now at:

Trump 35.4
Rubio 31.4
Cruz: 20.6

This reflects a likely best case scenario for Rubio. None of these candidates are likely to drop out. Cruz is despised by his party and he returns the feeling. he won't walk to support Rubio. Trump is in the lead and won't be willing to give that up to play kingmaker. Even if Cruz dropped out there's no reason to think the majority of that support would go to Rubio over Trump, since Rubio will be the establishment candidate. Trump doesn't even need to get to 50% since most of the later states are winner take all. He just needs the plurality.

If I was the establishment right now I'd be working on cozying up to Trump and trying to groom him, not contest him.

I don't have time to really reply or even read everything at the moment. But I think you're taking these polling numbers too literally right now. I don't think it's as simple as "moderate totals = 10%" so the most a single moderate can have is 10%.

My basic premise is that 20-30% of the vote sounds great right now since it's so much more than everybody else, but what if there's a ceiling on his potential, as in the people who could be talked into supporting Trump already do? 20-30% is alright 50 days before the first caucus when there are 14 candidates, but if he maxes out at 35% will that still work when there are only 2-4 viable candidates? Right now Republicans are putting "strong leader" and "fight ISIS" as things that are more important than electable. Will that trend change?

I think he maxes out much higher, and you're overstating the appeal that the 'moderate' candidate is going to have. The percentage of the republican party voting base that is ready to get on the 'stop trump' campaign is not that high. It's not going to be the religious conservatives. Its not going to be the tea partiers. Keep in mind that the percentages I used up there were actually charitable to the stop trump candidate.

I think it'll come down to Trump vs. Stop Trump and I don't believe that a majority of Republican primary voters will support Trump.

But I also think that once people take a more critical look at his platform they'll realize that in a lot of ways he isn't very conservative at all. He favors publicly-funded healthcare...just not Obamacare, though he isn't very clear about how his government run wealth transfer program would be different than Obama's. He supports a progressive tax system, including higher taxes on the wealthy (although the tax plan on his site right now suggests a tax cut for everybody). He opposes free trade and supports protectionist policies. All anybody is focusing on right now is that he talks the toughest on defense issues, but his domestic policies are well to the left of the other candidates.

He will back peddle as appropriate. And when was the last time republicans chose their candidates on the basis of platforms, anyway. Trump is a feeling, a posture, and a comforting aggrieved certainty. That's all he's going to need against these misfits

[nyquillyn]

I think there's about a 30% to 35% chance Trump gets the nomination at this point.

Mitt started to make his move in early January last time around. The problem is who's the "electability" candidate who's gonna make a move this time? Romney was the clear choice last time. It's still probably Rubio or Bush. Rubio is looking decent right now, but Bush actually has the money and endorsements to stick it out for a long time. And I think Cruz is in it for the long haul. So the "Trump is being propped up because of the large field" argument becomes horseshit if the field never significantly narrows. I don't see that happening anytime soon. I think there's a good chance that the field will remain large until the convention and either Trump wins outright or there's a contested convention. There are also fewer candidates willing to play ball with the "establishment" at this point and GOP voters seem to be sick of the "safe bet" anyway. Cleveland could be total chaos.

Also, as 4/5 already elluded to, if there's a terror attack between now and the convention that increases Trump's chances.

[stip]

The scary thing is that trump is probably my second choice amongst all these lepers

[4/5]

He will back peddle as appropriate. And when was the last time republicans chose their candidates on the basis of platforms, anyway.

This is true.

So the "Trump is being propped up because of the large field" argument becomes horseshit if the field never significantly narrows. I don't see that happening anytime soon.

Even if the field doesn't narrow I don't think that disproves the idea that a larger field is benefiting Trump, if anything if the field remains large and Trump performs well it might reinforce that theory.

85%. She is a lock barring a tremendous fuck up. Sanders will hang around to see if it happens

I'd put her at more like 95% because I agree she's a lock barring a shocking major scandal.

You have her at 85% as "a lock" who is practically running uncontested, but you have Trump at 65% despite being in a hugely crowded field. I could get on board with him being the odds on favorite, even though I'm going to remain stubborn for the time being, but I have to think that Hillary's odds of winning her nomination are MUCH, MUCH higher than any single candidate in the Republican field, if for no other reason than the sheer volume of candidates. Even in the most favorable polls for Trump more than 2/3 of the voters are choosing a candidate besides him. If you give me any Republican candidate or the field I'm taking the field at this point.