Election 2016

[Green Habit]

[stip]

guys, he's like 10 times worse than trump

[dimejinky99]

He really is, and more so 'cos he's being portrayed as the the acceptable version of trump but spouting a way more insidious message..wolf in lambs clothing..He'll get the nomination way ahead of Trump.

[jwfocker]

Cruz is a nightmare person

Succinct and to point.

[matt reeder]

Bernie just tied Hillary in Iowa. Out of nowhere.

I do agree with your ideas about charisma--she's got none of it, and for better or worse, that could be a big issue when it comes to turnout among younger voters. I was teaching college freshmen in 2008 and they almost all voted--and voted for Obama--and it seemed like the fervor around his character was as big a part of going to the polls as his positions were (I know that's anecdotal, but it was impactful enough to make an impression on me at the time). I haven't heard word one from my students on this election cycle (except for my students of color bristling at Trump, which I've written about in this thread before), and I dunno what's going to excite them and make them feel like it matters.

But to say Sanders came out of nowhere isn't really looking at the big picture. He slowly caught up to her in the polls for months and didn't overtake her in the end. To build off of 4/5's post: if Sanders had won by 8-10 percentage points, it might be worth talking about (Obama beat Clinton 37-29 in 2008...with John Edwards also getting 29%), but since Iowa isn't really representative of the country as a whole, I don't think a close election does much for Sanders' profile in more diverse states.

One thing about this electoral season is that we're seeing new rules being written before our very eyes. I would typically be inclined to believe you, but I'm shocked at how well Bernie has done, and I think he has a chance to do much better than conventional wisdom would suggest.

Oregon is one of the whitest states in the country and it hasn't been polled yet (our primary isn't until May 17) but Bernie will utterly destroy Hillary here if the primary is still going at that point. I cannot begin to overstate the excitement I am seeing from people here about his campaign.

But unless he wins at least some of the southern states, he has no chance.

[Strat]

lol @ trump

[Jorge]

Cruz is evil incarnate, but it feels wonderfully schadenfreudic to witness Trump's twitter meltdowns over this.

[Rob]

One thing about this electoral season is that we're seeing new rules being written before our very eyes.

Yes. It seems like a lot of people are using conventional wisdom/models to explain why Sanders can't win, and why Trump and Cruz aren't really as strong as polls suggest. We all understand there is some bad math for some of them, especially Sanders. In the end they may be right, but considering where we are now - already into the process - it's clear that the electorate is changing.

One other thing to point out - these "insurgent" candidates do have something going for them that matters a lot - money. With Trump, obviously money won't be an issue, but Cruz and Sanders are well financed too. Sanders has brought in a stunning $3M since the Iowa caucus ended.

I'm not saying these people will win, but I'm not buying the " they can't win" or "not possible" or the "bad at math" arguments. It's a heavy lift, but possible if trends continue.

[Mine]

Shall it be clear to all that Donald J. Trump is strongly not in "favor" of "choice"

[BurtReynolds]

These candidates creep me out so much.

[BurtReynolds]

You think Trump will run as an independent just for spite?

[Mine]

I think it's possible.

About his twitter hysteria about the fraud, there's apparently something to it and i wonder if it will be enough for Trump to spin it in his favour.

No one seems to mention it, but could it be that Trump skipping the last debate ended loosing him Iowa?

[stip]

Who knows, but caucus states are rough when you don't have turnout infrastructure and new voters. Trump was likely to underperform here

[b_i_revisited]

Cruz is awful. This could be the first complete consensus in RM N&D history.

[stip]

i would also like to reiterate my belief that rubio is worse than trump

[b_i_revisited]

i would also like to reiterate my belief that rubio is worse than trump

[Citizen Dick]

i would also like to reiterate my belief that rubio is worse than trump

If you get a chance, can you expand a bit on why you believe that? As an overseas observer, out of the 2 Dems and 3 GOPs that are in the mix at the moment, Rubio is the candidate that I know the least about.

[McParadigm]

i would also like to reiterate my belief that rubio is worse than trump

I dunno. I could get behind 4 years of gifs like that.

[Green Habit]

Cruz is awful. This could be the first complete consensus in RM N&D history.

I really wish LittleWing still posted here right now--I'd be really curious to know who he's supporting in this GOP primary.

[Simple Torture]

If you want to contact LittleWing, all you've got to do is wrap an AR-15 in a rag soaked with the tears of the disenfranchised, bury it in your backyard on the first day of the full moon while chanting, "You know what? If a woman has sex, she deserves to get pregnant." When the new moon rises two weeks later, dig it up while chanting, "Guys, I used to be stationed in Africa, you just don't get it," and two days later he'll step off a city bus in your town to talk with you about how shitty Sufjan Stevens is.