Election 2016

[nyquillyn]

Hillary will have an almost 500 delegate lead going into Super Tuesday, where she should kick ass. It's basically over.

Also, I've been screaming "demographics!" for weeks and that really played out in Nevada. Hillary dominated with women, "party loyalists" and some exit polling shows she won over 70% of the black vote. How can Bernie win a single southern state fighting those kinds of numbers?

[stip]

The demographics have been fluid--Bernie has narrowed her commanding leads in most areas, and Hilary is not a candidate people are likely to shift to. He doesn't have to beat her in any of those areas--just chip away at leads a few percentage points here and there.

Nevada was allegedly a great state for her. She clearly won, but it was not decisive or a momentum killer. She will likely do better in SC. The question is whether or not Bernie can continue to build momentum in the super Tuesday states.

[stip]

I'm still betting on Hilary. It's just not hard to envision ways for this to break for Bernie

[Norah]

'2black is right

[Simple Torture]

Carson has to drop out, right? I hope not--I love having him in the debate cycle.

[96583UP]

Hillary with another convincing win. 5% margin of victory. Total Juggernaut

separately, this:

Footage shows a young Bernie Sanders arrested during civil rights protest
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016 ... ts-protest

[Simple Torture]

I don't think the % margin of victory has much to do with it; I think it's that the polls are holding, and if the polls hold across the board, Clinton wins running away. Nevada was basically a toss up (there wasn't a lot of polling, but still), but the demographics held as expected.

[nyquillyn]

Also, I'd be shocked if that number in CNN's demo story about Bernie actually "winning" the Hispanic vote in early exit polling held true. I'm guessing that included a broad spectrum of rural areas and a small sampling of LV.

Nevada's hispanic population is centered around LV (Clark County) and they had some insanely long lines, so I'd guess she actually "won" that demographic.

[BurtReynolds]

The system is working as designed.

[Green Habit]

At least we won't have another Bush/Clinton general election.

[dpupenya]

Bush out

[nyquillyn]

That means Nate Silver's two GOP "front runners" (Walker and Bush) have dropped out.

[Green Habit]

[Norah]

That have has not a clue.

[Simple Torture]

That's some Manny-Ramirez-style baserunning right there.

[dimejinky99]

Bush is gone and Trump has won South Carolina?

Oh dear God

[nyquillyn]

I'm still betting on Hilary. It's just not hard to envision ways for this to break for Bernie

Actually, it is pretty hard.

The schedule is really stacked in her favor with all the southern states on Super Tuesday.

I also think that coming out of Super Tuesday the Dem "establishment" will be pushing to end all doubt early and let the nation focus on the GOP circus.

[96583UP]

wonder who will get Bush's supporters ... Rubio?

SimpleTorture you must know. You know everything. digame

[LoathedVermin72]

Carson has to drop out, right? I hope not--I love having him in the debate cycle.

"PLEASE GO TO BENCARSON.COM"

[stip]

I don't think the % margin of victory has much to do with it; I think it's that the polls are holding, and if the polls hold across the board, Clinton wins running away. Nevada was basically a toss up (there wasn't a lot of polling, but still), but the demographics held as expected.

I have not been following the polls particularly closely but I was under the impression they aren't holding, and that there seems to be a growing shift towards Sanders. Perhaps not quickly enough, given the massive slate of votes up for grabs in a week