Election 2016

[Norah]

4 years of a corrupt Clinton Presidency will ensure an even worse president 4 years from now. Suck it up and do the right thing. Vote Trump. Get it over with. It will be easier for us all. Voting for Clinton is reckless.

It's not about the Presidency, it's about the Supreme Court. This is the most important election of my lifetime in terms of swaying SCOTUS one way or another. A Trump Presidency will give conservatives a lock on the Supreme Court for years and years to come.

So you know, if you're ok with people who think gayness can and should be cured on the Supreme Court, then by all means vote for Trump.

Trump isn't electable. Hes not going to win. All of this is just an exercise.

You sound like Nate Silver (and myself) a year ago.

Look at a map and tell me where Trump's electoral votes are going to come from.

Upsets happen in weird, anti-establishment political climates. Scott Brown was elected Senator from Massachusetts.

[Mecca]

I'm a registered republican, voted for McCain and Romney, and I am beyond disgusted that Trump is the nominee and people in the party are okay with it or even support it. The one thing I can understand is that he's "Not Hillary" but the potential of a Trump presidency makes her a necessary evil in my mind. Hate and fear are what drives what little positions he's actually taken. He talks about making the country safer from foreign threats, but his rhetoric and the country electing someone spouting such rhetoric makes the country an even bigger target for terrorist organizations because its gives them a very clear "bad guy" and it looks as if the entire country supports it.

People that like to refer to Hillary as crooked and bought seem to be awfully cavalier about shady dealings in Trumps past. Does it even matter to them that Trump has fucked over so many people he's done business with, filed for bankruptcies, and has a lot of money ties to Russians that are close to Putin?

"Enduring a Trump presidency" seems like a shitty fucking thing to do when if you actually thought objectively about it, he is the greater of two evils.

Fucking dammit. I hate this election and that it's not only making me support a democrat, but hillary clinton of all people.

[Green Habit]

You sound like Nate Silver (and myself) a year ago.

Nate Silver also said that Hillary was a 77%-23% favorite just two weeks ago. Let's let the DNC finish and soak in and then see what happens.

[Simple Torture]

You sound like Nate Silver (and myself) a year ago.

Nate Silver also said that Hillary was a 77%-23% favorite just two weeks ago. Let's let the DNC finish and soak in and then see what happens.

To be fair, it was the 538 model, not Nate Silver personally, that said Clinton was favored 77-23 a few weeks ago. The same model says it's basically a toss up now.

[Green Habit]

You sound like Nate Silver (and myself) a year ago.

Nate Silver also said that Hillary was a 77%-23% favorite just two weeks ago. Let's let the DNC finish and soak in and then see what happens.

To be fair, it was the 538 model, not Nate Silver personally, that said Clinton was favored 77-23 a few weeks ago. The same model says it's basically a toss up now.

Dukakis was up 17 points in a poll after the DNC.

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/07/26/us/du ... -poll.html

[Simple Torture]

You sound like Nate Silver (and myself) a year ago.

Nate Silver also said that Hillary was a 77%-23% favorite just two weeks ago. Let's let the DNC finish and soak in and then see what happens.

To be fair, it was the 538 model, not Nate Silver personally, that said Clinton was favored 77-23 a few weeks ago. The same model says it's basically a toss up now.

Dukakis was up 17 points in a poll after the DNC.

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/07/26/us/du ... -poll.html

True, but if you look at the polls over time in that election, a sophisticated polling model may have recognized that as a "blip" or a convention bounce.



I find what 538 does to be fascinating, and have read them nearly every day for 5 months, and since the model went live last month, nearly every update has said: "Remember, polling in June/July tends not to be predictive; wait for when things settle down after the conventions." And most of the site's writers have expressed many times how nervous they are this year considering the number of times Trump has trounced conventional thinking (although he hasn't necessarily trounced historical polling patterns).

[Strat]

Bernie supporters need to grow the fuck up and quit being morons.

[Green Habit]

True, but if you look at the polls over time in that election, a sophisticated polling model may have recognized that as a "blip" or a convention bounce.

That's my point.

[Simple Torture]

I see! There was a hilarious video that 538 shared last night of someone completely misunderstanding their model; I'll find it when the baby is sleeping.

[Bi_3]

Come on, you can't really pin a Trump presidency on Bernie or anyone else, just like I couldn't pin Bush's first term on Nader. If Trump wins, it's because he's delivering a message that is resonating with more people than any other opponent's message. That's at least fair.

Nader presented himself and his party as a farther left alternative to the interventionist, globalist, corporatist Democratic Party of Bill Clinton. Bernie tried to leverage the DNC's money and media machine to promote his ideology (old white men and their desperate need to leave a 'legacy') against the what the party wanted by taking away the progressive identity obsessed lemmings from Big H. These are two different things and it's perfectly fair to judge them as such. If the 'Bernie or Bust' crowd doesn't show up for Hillary in the swing states in November, then the Trump presidency is his fault.

[Simple Torture]

I see! There was a hilarious video that 538 shared last night of someone completely misunderstanding their model; I'll find it when the baby is sleeping.

So to summarize: I misunderstood what you were saying earlier, GH, but I never thought you had the same view of 538's model as this guy:

538 posted this on their feed and threw some shade with: "I wonder what this guy thought of FiveThirtyEight’s consistent predictions that Sanders wouldn’t be the nominee."

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Strat]

Thanks joey for postin this. I enjoyed it

http://www.forwardprogressives.com/let- ... mail-hack/

Even though he lost, his success forced the party to adopt many of his ideas. His impact on the party not only pulled it further to the left than it ever has been, but he made Hillary Clinton a much better candidate. So, while he didn’t win the nomination, in a lot of ways, he still won the battle of ideas by making sure many of the policies he wants enacted and supported by the party became part of its platform. As a result, we now have what Bernie Sanders himself has called the “most progressive platform in the history of the Democratic party.” There are many ways to “win” in politics. He didn’t become the Democratic nominee, but Bernie Sanders was still victorious in numerous ways which have been a betterment for both the Democratic party and the nation as a whole.

Read more at: http://www.forwardprogressives.com/let- ... mail-hack/

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Strat]

Fine, vote bait me all the way, then its up to me/us the voters to hold them accountable. I wish bernie would have said "I disagreed with hillary a lot, yadda yadda, im with her now, vote for her and ill hold her ass to the fire for the next 4 years"

[Monkey_Driven]

Polls are fun to look at now, but the debates will have more of an impact than these conventions.

[tragabigzanda]

FUCK ICE

[Green Habit]

If the 'Bernie or Bust' crowd doesn't show up for Hillary in the swing states in November, then the Trump presidency is his fault.

Bernie told his supporters pretty clearly to vote for Hillary, so if they don't I'd say it's their fault instead of Bernie's.

[Green Habit]

I see! There was a hilarious video that 538 shared last night of someone completely misunderstanding their model; I'll find it when the baby is sleeping.

So to summarize: I misunderstood what you were saying earlier, GH, but I never thought you had the same view of 538's model as this guy:

Tweet

538 posted this on their feed and threw some shade with: "I wonder what this guy thought of FiveThirtyEight’s consistent predictions that Sanders wouldn’t be the nominee."

Not sure what you meant with that tweet, so I'll just clarify my entire view on this:
--Candidates generally get a positive bounce after their convention.
--Polling is not predicative, and especially so the further away from the election you get, so I'm put little weight into them right now anyway.

[bune]

I'm totally willing to endure a Trump presidency if it means the Dems will learn a couple hard lessons.

8 years of Bush and "hard lessons" taught them nothing.

For that matter, 8 years of Obama and "hard lessons" taught the Republicans nothing.

They're all idiots, just some are scarier than others.