2016 NFL Season

[Simple Torture]

[Kaius]

As a fan of likable athletes, I'm glad to hear he should make a full recovery in time for next year. As a fan of the Bears, I'm happy for any factors that will assist in us not finishing last this year.

[Green Habit]

No further comments are necessary.

[Simple Torture]

My favorite preseason odds: first coach to be fired!

Spoiler: show

Rank Coach Team Odds
1 Jim Caldwell Detroit +370
2 Mike McCoy San Diego +385
3 Jeff Fisher Los Angeles +700
T4 Gus Bradley Jacksonville +1100
T4 Jason Garrett Dallas +1100
6 Chip Kelly San Francisco +1500
T7 Bill O'Brien Houston +1750
T7 Chuck Pagano Indianapolis +1750
T9 Sean Payton New Orleans +2000
T9 Dirk Koetter Tampa Bay +2000
T9 Mike Mularkey Tennessee +2000
T9 Jay Gruden Washington +2000
T13 Jack Del Rio Oakland +2500
T13 John Fox Chicago +2500
T13 Rex Ryan Buffalo +2500
T13 Doug Pederson Philadelphia +2500
17 Adam Gase Miami +3000
18 Hue Jackson Cleveland +3300
19 Dan Quinn Atlanta +3500
T20 Todd Bowles New York Jets +4000
T20 John Harbaugh Baltimore +4000
22 Ben McAdoo New York Giants +4500
23 Marvin Lewis Cincinnati +5000
24 Mike Zimmer Minnesota +7500
T25 Gary Kubiak Denver +10000
T25 Andy Reid Kansas City +10000
T25 Mike Tomlin Pittsburgh +10000
T25 Ron Rivera Carolina +10000
29 Mike McCarthy Green Bay +15000
T30 Pete Carroll Seattle +25000
T30 Bill Belichick New England +25000
T30 Bruce Arians Arizona +25000

I think it's fair to put Caldwell and McCoy at the top, even though neither team has a super-tough schedule early on. Putting Kelly near the top is ludicrous; when was the last time a first-year coach was fired in the middle of a season? Pagano is a looker at 7th on the list; what if the Colts start 1-6 or something like that? Outside of the Top 10, I'm interested to see what happens if the Bears get off to a sluggish start. Fox has a great career W-L record, but I could see Chicago cleaning house if things really head south. My long-long-long shot is Marvin Lewis, but I think the Bengels will be good.

[Simple Torture]

So last year I tried to predict every record in this post. I seemed to have remembered that I did very poorly...but looking back, it wasn't that bad! I picked 3 teams' records exactly right, 11 teams' records were off by one win, and 6 teams' records were off by two wins--so 20 teams were in the +/- two win territory, which I'm pretty happy about. That can swing things pretty massively, though, especially when it comes to division winners--I only picked two correctly, and only had 5 of the 12 playoff teams picked. Of the teams I seriously overvalued (i.e., I predicted they'd get more wins than they actually did), three had serious QB problems (the Ravens +5, Colts +4, and Cowboys +7) so I feel like they could've been much closer (the other, San Diego +6, was just a fucking mess). Of the teams I undervalued (i.e. predicted fewer wins), two got surprisingly good QB play (Jets -6 and Washington -6), one was Carolina (-6) and the other were the resurgent Cardinals (-7). As we talked about throughout the season in the 2015 thread, I thought the league was surprisingly bottom-heavy last year--meaning, there were more bad teams than there were average or good teams. When thinking about how things might shuffle out this year, I imagine we're going to regress towards the mean--that is, closer to an even number of "average" teams, "good" teams, and "bad" teams. Last year there were 19 teams with 8 or fewer wins; I'm predicting that there will be 15 of those teams this year. I'll consider this a good year for long-term predictions if I predict 2 out of the following 3 items: at least half the league within 1 win (+/-) of their final record, 4/8 division winners, and 8/12 playoff teams. I'll get back to this in January!

Spoiler: show

AFC East
New England 11-5
Buffalo 9-7
New York 7-9
Miami 5-11

AFC South
Indianapolis 10-6
Houston 9-7
Jacksonville 6-10
Tennessee 4-12

AFC West
Kansas City 11-5
Denver 9-7
Oakland 8-8
San Diego 5-11

AFC North
Cincinnatti 11-5
Pittsburgh 10-6
Baltimore 7-9
Cleveland 4-12

NFC East
Philadelphia 10-6
Washington 9-7
New York 8-8
Dallas 5-11

NFC South
Carolina 12-4
Atlanta 10-6
New Orleans 7-9
Tampa Bay 5-11

NFC West
Seattle 11-5
Arizona 10-6
San Francisco 6-10
Los Angeles 5-11

NFC North
Green Bay 11-5
Chicago 9-7
Detroit 7-9
Minnesota 5-11

Byes: KC, NWE, CAR, GB
DIV: CIN, IND, SEA, PHI
WC: PIT, BUF, ARI, ATL

Wild Card Round
CIN def BUF
PIT def IND
SEA def ATL
ARI def PHI

Divisional Round
KC def PIT
CIN def NWE
CAR def ARI
GB def SEA

Conference Championships
KC def CIN
CAR def GB

Superbowl XIVLIVX
KC def CAR

It's the Andy Reid Redemption Superbowl! You heard it here first.

[verb_to_trust]

Kaepernick wears pig socks like any eloquent warrior for social justice would

[epilogue]

Dynamite drop in, Monty.

[epilogue]

The Chase Daniel era just began in Philly.

Bradford to the Vikings.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... raft-picks

[Strat]

The Chase Daniel era just began in Philly.

Bradford to the Vikings.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... raft-picks

Yea i dont hate this move.

[epilogue]

The Chase Daniel era just began in Philly.

Bradford to the Vikings.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... raft-picks

Yea i dont hate this move.

Give your other options, I don't either. This certainly helps.

[Strat]

The Chase Daniel era just began in Philly.

Bradford to the Vikings.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... raft-picks

Yea i dont hate this move.

Give your other options, I don't either. This certainly helps.

We dont need a huge gunslinger. We just need someone who can manage the game and break out every once in awhile. I Just hope it doesnt take him 5 weeks to gel with the offense.

[epilogue]

The Chase Daniel era just began in Philly.

Bradford to the Vikings.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... raft-picks

Yea i dont hate this move.

Give your other options, I don't either. This certainly helps.

We dont need a huge gunslinger. We just need someone who can manage the game and break out every once in awhile. I Just hope it doesnt take him 5 weeks to gel with the offense.

He certainly can do what you describe. And I agree you don't a huge gunslinger. The only other issue is his injury prone past. Hopefully, he can make it through the season.

[Green Habit]

A 1st and 4th round pick is still overtrading for Bradford, though.

[E.H. Ruddock]

A 1st and 4th round pick is still overtrading for Bradford, though.

My thoughts too. He is not worth a first rounder next year when you probably could have gotten a healthier kid coming out of college with that pick next year

[Kaius]

A 1st and 4th round pick is still overtrading for Bradford, though.

Could become a 2nd if he plays well. Of course, then it's a moot point considering that means they are likely winning ball games.

[AndySlash]

right, i'd be happy with them giving up a 2017 1st and 2018 2nd if it meant the vikings won the super bowl. but the fear now is you gave up a 2017 1st and 2018 4th for a guy who gets his knee blown out again three games into his tenure. risk/reward on this is pretty high.

[epilogue]

right, i'd be happy with them giving up a 2017 1st and 2018 2nd if it meant the vikings won the super bowl. but the fear now is you gave up a 2017 1st and 2018 4th for a guy who gets his knee blown out again three games into his tenure. risk/reward on this is pretty high.

Especially since it's more than likely given his past that he will actually get hurt and not start 16 games.

[@SkitchP]

right, i'd be happy with them giving up a 2017 1st and 2018 2nd if it meant the vikings won the super bowl. but the fear now is you gave up a 2017 1st and 2018 4th for a guy who gets his knee blown out again three games into his tenure. risk/reward on this is pretty high.

Especially since it's more than likely given his past that he will actually get hurt and not start 16 games.

[epilogue]

right, i'd be happy with them giving up a 2017 1st and 2018 2nd if it meant the vikings won the super bowl. but the fear now is you gave up a 2017 1st and 2018 4th for a guy who gets his knee blown out again three games into his tenure. risk/reward on this is pretty high.

Especially since it's more than likely given his past that he will actually get hurt and not start 16 games.

[Kaius]

Idk. I like the move. They're a good team that doesn't want to throw a season away before it even got started. Bradford is a big upgrade over Hill, and they could quite feasibly win the division again this year.