Super Bowl LI: Belichick vs. Dimitroff/Pioli

[Coach]

31-28, Patriots.

Defense wins championships and New England has the better D, but the game remains close because of a Brady pick six.

Reminds me of '01 when New England beat the high flyin' Rams and the '07 Pats losing its undefeated season to New York, which had the better defense.

[Green Habit]

Belichick does this feeling out process during the first quarter-and-a-half of many playoff games, especially Super Bowls, that I think might deflate the score from where the over/under puts it. The scores after the first quarter for Belichick SBs have been:

3-0
0-0
0-0
3-0
9-0
0-0

The outlier was, of course, a game where the Pats had a horrendous start as opposed to the other games where they had a cautious start. The 2nd quarter might be the one to pay attention to, as it's where the Patriots tend to score in bunches in these games. The 4th quarter is also worth watching (duh) because in BB coached SBs it's been absolute chaos. Total points by Patriots and (Opponents) and [Total] by quarter in B/B SBs:

1 - 0 (15) [15]]
2 - 66 (31) [97]
3 - 17 (23) [40]
4 - 52 (60) [112]

It wasn't until I ran these numbers that I realized Belichick/Brady teams have scored zero total points in the first quarter of six Super Bowls. How does that happen?

So what you're saying is I clearly need to get at least one zero on the squares board for the first quarter.

[Coach]

Belichick does this feeling out process during the first quarter-and-a-half of many playoff games, especially Super Bowls, that I think might deflate the score from where the over/under puts it. The scores after the first quarter for Belichick SBs have been:

3-0
0-0
0-0
3-0
9-0
0-0

The outlier was, of course, a game where the Pats had a horrendous start as opposed to the other games where they had a cautious start. The 2nd quarter might be the one to pay attention to, as it's where the Patriots tend to score in bunches in these games. The 4th quarter is also worth watching (duh) because in BB coached SBs it's been absolute chaos. Total points by Patriots and (Opponents) and [Total] by quarter in B/B SBs:

1 - 0 (15) [15]]
2 - 66 (31) [97]
3 - 17 (23) [40]
4 - 52 (60) [112]

It wasn't until I ran these numbers that I realized Belichick/Brady teams have scored zero total points in the first quarter of six Super Bowls. How does that happen?

So what you're saying is I clearly need to get at least one zero on the squares board for the first quarter.

Bingo!

[Simple Torture]

Belichick does this feeling out process during the first quarter-and-a-half of many playoff games, especially Super Bowls, that I think might deflate the score from where the over/under puts it. The scores after the first quarter for Belichick SBs have been:

3-0
0-0
0-0
3-0
9-0
0-0

The outlier was, of course, a game where the Pats had a horrendous start as opposed to the other games where they had a cautious start. The 2nd quarter might be the one to pay attention to, as it's where the Patriots tend to score in bunches in these games. The 4th quarter is also worth watching (duh) because in BB coached SBs it's been absolute chaos. Total points by Patriots and (Opponents) and [Total] by quarter in B/B SBs:

1 - 0 (15) [15]]
2 - 66 (31) [97]
3 - 17 (23) [40]
4 - 52 (60) [112]

It wasn't until I ran these numbers that I realized Belichick/Brady teams have scored zero total points in the first quarter of six Super Bowls. How does that happen?

So what you're saying is I clearly need to get at least one zero on the squares board for the first quarter.

If you're going to try and rig it, then I would definitely try to get one zero.

[epilogue]

Patriots 49
Falcons 31

Final score will make the game look closer than it ever really was.

[lennytheweedwhacker]

Patriots 49
Falcons 31

Final score will make the game look closer than it ever really was.

unless it's fluky i don't see the pats putting up that many points

[epilogue]

Patriots 49
Falcons 31

Final score will make the game look closer than it ever really was.

unless it's fluky i don't see the pats putting up that many points

Most people don't. But I also think Vegas is usually right about high scoring games. They have a large over under. And I don't see the Falcons competing. So those points have to come from somewhere.

[Electromatic]

Pats 19
Falcons 6

The Falcons are averaging 34 points a game 4/5.

I personally find it hilarious that people don't think the Falcons will compete.

[epilogue]

Pats 19
Falcons 6

The Falcons are averaging 34 points a game 4/5.

I personally find it hilarious that people don't think the Falcons will compete.

Hey man, I have them putting up 31!

[Electromatic]

Pats 19
Falcons 6

The Falcons are averaging 34 points a game 4/5.

I personally find it hilarious that people don't think the Falcons will compete.

Hey man, I have them putting up 31!

Yeah but you've got the pats scoring 49.... which would be... garbage time points....

looking forward to Sunday.

[epilogue]

Pats 19
Falcons 6

The Falcons are averaging 34 points a game 4/5.

I personally find it hilarious that people don't think the Falcons will compete.

Hey man, I have them putting up 31!

Yeah but you've got the pats scoring 49.... which would be... garbage time points....

looking forward to Sunday.

Here's the thing. I don't think the game will be very close. Not really. I think the score will ultimately reflect a closer game than it really was. The Falcons like to score. So The Patriots will HAVE to score MORE. That's all. I don't think it'll be garbage time for the Pats. However, I won't be surprised if the Falcons score 10 or 14 points in garbage time.

[Electromatic]

Pats 19
Falcons 6

The Falcons are averaging 34 points a game 4/5.

I personally find it hilarious that people don't think the Falcons will compete.

Hey man, I have them putting up 31!

Yeah but you've got the pats scoring 49.... which would be... garbage time points....

looking forward to Sunday.

Here's the thing. I don't think the game will be very close. Not really. I think the score will ultimately reflect a closer game than it really was. The Falcons like to score. So The Patriots will HAVE to score MORE. That's all. I don't think it'll be garbage time for the Pats. However, I won't be surprised if the Falcons score 10 or 14 points in garbage time.

No I understood where you were coming from. This is going to be a ball control game though for both offenses, so outside of some kind of fluke 5 turnover effort no one is scoring 49.

You're just saying you think the Falcons are a bad team that somehow got lucky. I hope you're not wagering money.

[Simple Torture]

Pats 19
Falcons 6

The Falcons are averaging 34 points a game 4/5.

If you look at the top scoring teams to make Super Bowls, you'll see that most of the ones at the top of the list (500+ pts in a season) scored below their average.

2013 Broncos - 37.9 ppg / 8 pts. in SB / -29.9
2007 Patriots - 36.8 ppg / 14 pts. in SB / -22.8
2016 Falcons - 33.8 ppg / ?????? / ??????
1999 Rams - 32.9 ppg / 23 pts. in SB / -9.9
2011 Patriots - 32.1 ppg / 17 pts. in SB / -15.1
2009 Saints - 31.9 ppg / 31 pts. in SB / -0.9
1994 49ers - 31.6 ppg / 49 pts. in SB / +17.4
2001 Rams - 31.4 ppg / 17 pts. in SB / -14.4
1998 Broncos - 31.3 ppg / 34 pts. in SB / +2.7
2016 Panthers - 31.3 ppg / 10 pts. in SB / -21.3

I bolded the teams that scored 10 points or more below their season average in points during the Super Bowl. What do those bolded teams have in common? Hmmmm.....hmmmm....hmmmmmmmmmmmm....

tl;dr: the Falcolns better hope to put up 24 or more points if they want to win.

[Electromatic]

and the Patriots played likely the easiest schedule in football this year.

The AFC east hasn't fielded a decent QB in 2 decades not named Tom Brady. They allowed 31 to a pretty pedestrian offense this year in Seattle. At home if I remember correctly.

The roster isn't all that impressive. Really good coaching, really good secondary, really good tacklers, but everyone acts as if this Patriots team is some kind of juggernaut. It's Bellichick, Patricia, Brady and a pretty weak AFC overall.

They averaged 28, the Falcons averaged 34. That sounds like a good number to me. It could go either way as far as I'm concerned, but some kind of blow out? You're not paying attention.


Most teams are going to score less than their average in the super bowl because the teams they are playing against are better. We also continue to make it harder to play defense, so to an extent it depends on how the game is called. I'm not at all surprised if the Falcons lose Sunday, but they aren't giving up 49. and the Patriots aren't blowing them out unless some kind of crazy fluke happens. Maybe the 2007 Patriots, but they aren't playing Sunday.

[epilogue]

Pats 19
Falcons 6

The Falcons are averaging 34 points a game 4/5.

I personally find it hilarious that people don't think the Falcons will compete.

Hey man, I have them putting up 31!

Yeah but you've got the pats scoring 49.... which would be... garbage time points....

looking forward to Sunday.

Here's the thing. I don't think the game will be very close. Not really. I think the score will ultimately reflect a closer game than it really was. The Falcons like to score. So The Patriots will HAVE to score MORE. That's all. I don't think it'll be garbage time for the Pats. However, I won't be surprised if the Falcons score 10 or 14 points in garbage time.

No I understood where you were coming from. This is going to be a ball control game though for both offenses, so outside of some kind of fluke 5 turnover effort no one is scoring 49.

You're just saying you think the Falcons are a bad team that somehow got lucky. I hope you're not wagering money.

I'm not saying that at all. The Falcons are not a bad team. There are far better teams that didn't make it to the Super Bowl. But that happens all the time. I like the Falcons. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt and trusting Vegas's big over/under.

But The Patriots look fucking invincible. I don't care if it's the Falcons or the Cowboys or the Seahawks or Chiefs or Broncos or Raiders or the Steelers or anybody. No one is beating the Patriots.

Without Vegas's prediction I'd put the game at 28-23 (Pats). Because I think you're right about ball control. But Vegas is usually right when they have that kind of over/under. The points have to come from somewhere. Since I don't think The Falcons are the better team, no matter how great their offense has been at scoring points, logic tells me the Pats have to exceed expectations and score a fuck ton.

And no, I don't bet on NFL games. That's stupid.

[Orpheus]

This Pats team is definitely not invincible. They played a lot of terrible QBs, including Brock Osweiler twice.

The main thing for beating the Patriots is not beating yourself, either through scheme or unforced errors. I knew Pittsburgh would lose from the first snap from how they were calling the defense. I have to think Dan Quinn will do a better job, and this is a team that's well coached and hopefully won't shoot themselves in the foot.

This Falcons team had to be one of the most disrespected teams ever relative to their actual talent. It's kind of silly at this point.

[epilogue]

This Falcons team had to be one of the most disrespected teams ever relative to their actual talent. It's kind of silly at this point.

Perhaps. But you'll have to forgive this Chiefs fan for not really seeing things that way.

And like I said, I love the Falcons. They're fucking good. But these Pats.... I mean, Christ.

[Simple Torture]

and the Patriots played likely the easiest schedule in football this year.

The AFC east hasn't fielded a decent QB in 2 decades not named Tom Brady. They allowed 31 to a pretty pedestrian offense this year in Seattle. At home if I remember correctly.

The roster isn't all that impressive. Really good coaching, really good secondary, really good tacklers, but everyone acts as if this Patriots team is some kind of juggernaut. It's Bellichick, Patricia, Brady and a pretty weak AFC overall.

They averaged 28, the Falcons averaged 34. That sounds like a good number to me. It could go either way as far as I'm concerned, but some kind of blow out? You're not paying attention.


Most teams are going to score less than their average in the super bowl because the teams they are playing against are better. We also continue to make it harder to play defense, so to an extent it depends on how the game is called. I'm not at all surprised if the Falcons lose Sunday, but they aren't giving up 49. and the Patriots aren't blowing them out unless some kind of crazy fluke happens. Maybe the 2007 Patriots, but they aren't playing Sunday.

Woah, woah, let's all relax! Chill, everything is fine. I wasn't arguing for a Patriots blowout or anything like that--I just wanted to point out that high-octane offenses like the Falcons have don't necessarily have a great record in the Super Bowl--they tend to score a touchdown or more below their scoring average, especially in the post-2000 era. Trrrrrrrust me, as a Patriots fan, I know no team is invincible, no matter how many points they score in the regular season.

[Coach]

We'll know the answer on Sunday, but I've seen more disrespect towards the Pats in this thread vs. Falcons disrespect.

In more fascinating news, I am watching an armadillo race right now in Houston on TV....wow, Super Bowl coverage.

[96583UP]

the final score will be 38 - 23

but which side corresponds to which score i cannot tell you