tragabigzanda wrote:Meh. Unless someone finds hard evidence of Trump colluding to effect votes at the ballot box level, then none of this will amount to a hill of beans. Even if some conversation were to come out that amounted to "Trump asked Russia to help spread disinformation," so what? The "witch hunt" accusations are sounding more rational to me with each passing day.
And even then.
Even if Trump colluded with Russia, it's not at all clear that this a violation of law. There are several theories of how he could be prosecuted, but none of them is a perfectly clear shot. And he almost certainly has immunity from criminal prosecution as a sitting president. There will not be a prosecution of Donald Trump while he is a sitting president.
Trump Jr. is in deeper doo-doo, sure, but even there... it's not 100% clear that what he did is technically against the law. Kushner clearly broke the law when he lied about all this shit on the forms you fill out to get a security clearance and his legal future is a little dimmer. Until you recall that Trump will 100% absolutely pardon him before he leaves office. And the power to pardon is absolute, there is nothing anyone can do.
Trump will almost certainly not be impeached unless the Dems win in 2018. The republicans are just never going to do it. If that changes it will be because things have happened that are not currently on our radar screen. But if the Dems win in 2018, it almost certainly will happen. But then the Senate has to vote to remove him from office. And I think that's another slim to none chance. It's possible but nothing we've seen from the GOP indicates that it's likely. Unless between then and now the GOP sees Pence as a lesser liability.
The only good news is Bob Mueller. He doesn't need to recommend prosecution to congress or anyone else. He is empowered to bring prosecutions under his own authority. And he is going to bring them like the hammer of God. We're going to find out what went down here because of him and it will further accelerate the implosion of the Trump administration in all but name. Trump insiders will be charged. Trump will pardon them but it will privately horrify a lot of the Republicans in congress even further, setting the stage for impeachment in 2019. Trump will try to fire Mueller but Mueller has defenses: he can only be fired by Rosenstein or his replacement, and only for cause. There will be a legal battle. Even if Trump succeeds in removing Mueller, he can't fire the whole FBI, and the investigation will continue one way or the other.
The darkest part of the whole thing, to me, is the power of pardon. It's a necessary tool, I understand that. But it sucks in this particular case. There's a very real chance that Trump pardons anyone involved, especially anyone in his family. It's possible that Trump can pardon himself. The SCOTUS would have to weigh in on that, I think. But it's possible. Even if he can't, we could see the same thing we saw with Ford and Nixon. Pence would most likely pardon Trump.
It's actually not just possible, but LIKELY, that at the end of this, Trump is impeached by not removed (just like Bill Clinton) and that some lowly middle-men become patsies and take the fall for all the rich white assholes in power. Be ready for Trump, his family, his close allies, to never face prosecution. Everyone can and probably will be pardoned. Trump and his name and his legacy and all his illegal dealings remain intact. The kids get the fortune and the future and not one of them sees jail time.
There's a real world scenario here where all of this is just a four year long distraction. Sure his name is damaged. Sure he's angry and hates that he'll be remembered as the worst President in the history of America. But what are the real world consequences? Likely, nothing.
