Red Mosquito

PHATJ wrote:Fangraphs sucks at predicting win totals

Everyone sucks at it.

MadTIGERmaN wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:Fangraphs has the Brewers with a 76-win projection after the trade/signing

yup, 10 less than last year, and the only player they lost was Jimmy Nelson and his 12 wins. With the Reds and Pirates in the division, I dont see how the Brewers and Cubs dont finish well above .500

I think they'll be better than that too, but basing it on the team record last year isn't a great idea. If a team has a lot of luck, health, and a bunch of career years from players, it's a bad idea to expect those things to carry forward into the next season.

MadTIGERmaN wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:Fangraphs has the Brewers with a 76-win projection after the trade/signing

yup, 10 less than last year, and the only player they lost was Jimmy Nelson and his 12 wins. With the Reds and Pirates in the division, I dont see how the Brewers and Cubs dont finish well above .500

They had like 3-4 guys that had ridiculous, sometimes career, years last year. They’re bound to regress. Thames’s second half compared to his first is a good example.

cutuphalfdead wrote:PECOTA or GTFO

NERDS

numbers wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:PECOTA or GTFO

NERDS

I'm sorry, how many Bellhorn championships have you won?

pete, how many wins does PECOTA have for your dart team this coming up season?

97

regress to the mean

Our (adjusted) win total this season was 105. We're going up a level so that's why PECOTA is projecting us to have 8 fewer wins. 97 is still a damned good season.

cutuphalfdead wrote:

numbers wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:PECOTA or GTFO

NERDS

I'm sorry, how many Bellhorn championships have you won?

The same amount of championships you’ve won when you weren’t controlling the league.

numbers wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:

numbers wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:PECOTA or GTFO

NERDS

I'm sorry, how many Bellhorn championships have you won?

The same amount of championships you’ve won when you weren’t controlling the league.

I will not have my integrity impugned.

I’m just stating a fact, no commentary on anyone’s integrity.

I will cut you.

I may have stumbled onto something here.

Chris_H_2 wrote:

MadTIGERmaN wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:Fangraphs has the Brewers with a 76-win projection after the trade/signing

yup, 10 less than last year, and the only player they lost was Jimmy Nelson and his 12 wins. With the Reds and Pirates in the division, I dont see how the Brewers and Cubs dont finish well above .500

They had like 3-4 guys that had ridiculous, sometimes career, years last year. They’re bound to regress. Thames’s second half compared to his first is a good example.

But now Thames has a full season under his belt and knows what to expect, so, the fatigue that hit in the second half, may not be as drastic this year. That and theres already talk of Braun playing some 1B and having an OF of Yelich, Cain and Santana (I'm still betting Santana gets moved at some point though)

Either way, I get what youre saying about basing this year off of last year, but the Pirates and Reds should, be pretty bad again this year. Id say the Brewers and Cubs will be neck and neck for the division most of the year with the Cards being the Cards lingering just close enough to make ya watch them (which should be hovering around .500)

MadTIGERmaN wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:

MadTIGERmaN wrote:

Chris_H_2 wrote:Fangraphs has the Brewers with a 76-win projection after the trade/signing

yup, 10 less than last year, and the only player they lost was Jimmy Nelson and his 12 wins. With the Reds and Pirates in the division, I dont see how the Brewers and Cubs dont finish well above .500

They had like 3-4 guys that had ridiculous, sometimes career, years last year. They’re bound to regress. Thames’s second half compared to his first is a good example.

But now Thames has a full season under his belt and knows what to expect, so, the fatigue that hit in the second half, may not be as drastic this year. That and theres already talk of Braun playing some 1B and having an OF of Yelich, Cain and Santana (I'm still betting Santana gets moved at some point though)

Either way, I get what youre saying about basing this year off of last year, but the Pirates and Reds should, be pretty bad again this year. Id say the Brewers and Cubs will be neck and neck for the division most of the year with the Cards being the Cards lingering just close enough to make ya watch them (which should be hovering around .500)

i gotta think they move santana or phillips (i don't see broxton getting much interest) for starting pitching. if they could get a guy like chris archer - or even patrick corbin or danny salazar - in a trade, then manage to lure yu darvish, folks would have to start taking their 2018 chances seriously.

So will Vlad Jr have to wait until his second year to get in like his dad, or will he be a first ballot guy?

Good riddance chief wahoo

verb_to_trust wrote:Good riddance chief wahoo

This is going to draw out a lot of hilarious responses from people who are "totally not racist at all but..."

philpritchard wrote:

verb_to_trust wrote:Good riddance chief wahoo

This is going to draw out a lot of hilarious responses from people who are "totally not racist at all but..."

Just change all the names. The Braves, the Chiefs, the Redskins.... the Seminoles etc.

The Washington Bullets changed their name for goodness sakes. Team mascots should not be news. Change the names pick an animal or a machine of some type.... move on.