Red Mosquito

a hater or a supporter of his?

Predictions for tonight?

Reading about some of the polls, especially the ones that have been predictive in the past, it looks like Cruz is coming on and Rubio is also gaining some ground. I imagine that Cruz and Trump will be so close that both are going to claim "victory"--if it's like 30% for Cruz and 28% for Trump, Trump can try and make a 2nd-place finish sound like he proved something. If Trump wins by a few percentage points, Cruz can talk about how he's been the underdog the whole time and is still coming on strong. Basically, we'll know nothing by the end of the night. So:

Trump: 26%
Cruz: 24%
Rubio: 19%
Also rans: the rest

Oh, and:

Clinton: 47%
Sanders: 45%
O'Malley: I don't want to do the math, whatever's left
Chafee: If I were in Iowa, I'd try to caucus for Chafee

A potential blizzard would have to be good for Bernie, right? Younger/more excited supporters, etc.

yup, but less habituated to the process so more likely to just say fuck it

I am curious to see how Rubio does since I think he's the only one that could win the general. If he does well early he could take off. I still can't fathom a President Trump. Just doesn't seem possible. Cruz is impossible.

stip wrote:yup, but less habituated to the process so more likely to just say fuck it

Do you think habituation is the main reason why young people don't vote as much? In my life I've never missed a general or primary election, including midterms, and frequently show up for off-schedule votes like on municipal bonds and such. I also went to a college that was pretty politically aware, so I didn't get a good pulse on this in my youth. I've tried to read some articles on the subject and have yet to find a satisfactory answer.

4/5 wrote:A potential blizzard would have to be good for Bernie, right? Younger/more excited supporters, etc.

Isn't it just supposed to be a foot or less in Des Moines? I'd be surprised if that has a traumatic impact on Iowan involvement

McParadigm wrote:

4/5 wrote:A potential blizzard would have to be good for Bernie, right? Younger/more excited supporters, etc.

Isn't it just supposed to be a foot or less in Des Moines? I'd be surprised if that has a traumatic impact on Iowan involvement

Is McP arguing against the apathy and laziness of the American voter? I think I just shit my pants.

I'm arguing against the Midwest being smart enough to recognize dangerous driving conditions, especially where snow is concerned.

In the 80's, school in Sioux Falls was once let out early for bad weather after a tornado had touched down a few miles outside of town. "There's a twister on the ground. Get these shitheads on some busses."

McParadigm wrote:I'm arguing against the Midwest being smart enough to recognize dangerous driving conditions

This checks out.

Who thought caucusing was the best way to do this?

With 1/4 of precincts reporting, Cruz is close to 30% with Trump about 3% points behind. Rubio a predicted third with around 19%.

Clinton and Sanders seem to be neck and neck. Sanders is outperforming the polling.

Rubio seems to be doing better than expected as well.

What happened, Donald?

do we have a new president yet?

Yeah it's Rubio.

Green Habit wrote:

The date on that is telling. Still...c'mon, did we really think this would be a thing? Although, some of the early-post-mortems I'm reading keep harping on the fact that Trump polls well and could perform well in straight primaries, but that caucuses don't really work with the type of campaign he's running.