Red Mosquito

winning the iowa caucuses is the last thing you want if you're a republican

So Rubio will be the story of the GOP this week.

And happy trails, Huck and O'Malley.

NH got a little more interesting; no way am I burying Trump (yet) though.
When will Jeb throw in the towel?
Just a hiccup for Hillary. NH will be a bitter pill but after that it will be like a snowball rolling downhill for her.

Republicans are such Clinton-hate fetishists, I just think that if (when) she gets the nomination, a lot of this right wing fracturing will quickly disappear (temporarily?), and it won't matter who got the republican nod. They will see a lot of steam.

The fact that she served in the Obama administration doesn't help her, either; looking back, since we know she's had designs on the White House since probably 2004/2005, and since it was obvious in 2009 how the Republican line for 4/8 years would be "NOBAMA!", she probably should've stayed in the Senate, gotten on some foreign relations committees, and then distanced herself from Barry.

I don't think it would matter. Righties will definitely unite against her.

It's amazing to me how so many people still feel Bernie has no chance. I doubt any Bernie supporter really denies his disadvantages. But it's February 2016 and the GOP narrative is "how does Rubio catch up to Cruz and Trump." That's quite a journey from 9 months ago - a time when Bernie had a 1-3% chance. Tonight seems to be a virtual tie. NH is his best state. Math, logic, history and wisdom have failed at least to some degree. The mood of the average worker is severely underestimated. I don't expect a Bernie victory (he's kind of already won in some ways), but this is far from over.

Bernie fans are kinda living in denial at this point and seem to be really bad at math. Bernie needed to win big in Iowa and New Hampshire to have any sort of shot at making this even competitive. He'll undoubtedly win N.H., but it won't be the huge statement he needs. Hillary's running a smart race. She knows her demographics and hasn't overcommitted to Iowa and New Hampshire. The Dem race will be over by Super Tuesday.

No surprise Cruz did well, evangelical-types always do well there (Santorum and Huckabee), but Trump did underperform compared to the polls. He has big leads in N.H. and South Carolina, so it'll be interesting to see if he underperforms there as well. Overall, I'd say the "establishment" got what it wanted. Rubio was the clear winner.

What would Bernie's chances be compared to Hillary's in presidential elections?

its doable - he just needs to chip away at her support in a few demographics, and its certainly possible to do that - but she is still the favorite

id give bernie a 30% chance.

I'd put Bernie's chances at less than 15%.

The only way Bernie's the nominee is if Hillary gets indicted.

Yeah. At this point my concern is more 'can Clinton win against a United GOP?'

I think Democrats should be praying that somehow Cruz or Trump win the nomination because I really don't think they want to go up against Rubio.

he is the strongest GA candidate they have.

on the other hand, sanders is the stronger GA candidate, according to polling

stip wrote:he is the strongest GA candidate they have.

on the other hand, sanders is the stronger GA candidate, according to polling

Head to head general election polls are completely meaningless.

This is why i asked. From what i can tell Clinton has a better shot at winning against the united GOP than Sanders does. I can't picture a self professed socialist having a real shot in the US.

McParadigm wrote:a United GOP?'

Ha. As you know, a totally incongruent phrase ...

I have a feeling I'm going to be repeating this in November, but if the GOP ever wants to win another presidential election, it has to think long and hard about hitching its wagon to socially conservative demagogues.

Chris_H_2 wrote:

McParadigm wrote:a United GOP?'

Ha. As you know, a totally incongruent phrase ...

I hope you're right. I have a lot of right leaning family/in-laws of various persuasions...fiscal conservatives, religious right conservatives, ex military who think everyone around them is an idiot on foreign policy. The only thing they all share is a bizarre and unwavering hatred of the name Clinton.