spike wrote:Interesting thought, but I’d say no. If Trump had actually continued to promote the vaccine, they would have turned on him. It’s never been about him; it’s about what he enables. He didn’t create the ideology, just tapped into it.
This is where I am at.
Trump doesn’t guide his base, he champions it. Back before the vaccine was available (and well before the election was decided), 47% of Republicans in a Gallup poll said they would get vaccinated. Today, 51% of Republicans are vaccinated. Very consistent numbers, in spite of everything that changed around them.
The tail wags the dog, and the insular conspiracy theory-driven universe that half of Republicans live inside runs on a distrust of public health care efforts, government programs, and (quite frankly) anything that city dwellers are doing. These are old and deeply engrained grievances. They’re bigger than Trump. If he had been re-elected, they wouldn’t have gotten vaccinated in bigger numbers. He would have just defended their decision not to do so, and gone back to taking about opening the economy.
Bammer wrote:I heard something briefly about this on the radio yesterday. Something about a Kamala Harris quote … “I’ll never take Trump’s vaccine” (I’m sure that’s not an exact quote but the point is, yes, the swath of people resisting the vax may very well trend blue rather than red had he been re-elected)
I don’t think there’s any reason to believe this would be the case.
I see quotes like the Harris one brought up from time to time, but let’s talk about the context of that moment…
In September the CDC, researchers, and vaccine manufacturers were all telling us that it would take months and months to have safe vaccines tested and mass produced. The President, however, was fairly open about pushing for Americans to start getting vaccinated within a matter of weeks
because he thought it would help him win the election.
In September, President Trump wrote:We’ll be able to distribute at least 100 million vaccine doses by the end of 2020.
The next day, President Trump wrote:It’ll be delivered, the vaccine, before the end of the year and, frankly, maybe even during the month of October.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield on Wednesday stood by his timeline for a potential COVID-19 vaccine, despite criticism from President Donald Trump who said the top public health official was mistaken when he said a vaccine would not be available to all Americans immediately later this fall.
Redfield and other officials, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, have said that while "Operation Warp Speed" is facilitating the production of millions of doses of COVID-19 vaccines undergoing clinical trials, it will likely until next year for those doses to be distributed and available to the majority of Americans.
Later that week, President Trump wrote:We're going to have a vaccine in a matter of weeks, it could be four weeks, it could be eight weeks
He was talking about pushing a vaccine out in October….in early
September. It cratered perception of vaccine safety among EVERY group. By the end of the month,
only about 1 in 5 Americans said they would “definitely” get vaccinated if the vaccine was available today. And the numbers took some time to fully recover.
Meanwhile, that same week, another poll was conducted that asked “do you hope to be vaccinated by the same time next year.” 84% of Democrats said yes, further demonstrating that the distrust of Trump’s theoretical rushed release didn’t translate into distrust of vaccination.
Today, 88% of Democrats have received at least one shot. Again, as with Republicans, these are very consistent numbers that don’t seem to hinge on the President. At the height of skepticism and uncertainty, 84% of Democrats thought they’d end up getting it and so far, 88% did.