Red Mosquito

i think ukraine gonna have to cede some donbas land if they want this to end

i think russian supply chain is too strong relative to what the west has / is willing to give ukraine

hope i’m wrong

96583UP wrote:i think ukraine gonna have to cede some donbas land if they want this to end

i think russian supply chain is too strong relative to what the west has / is willing to give ukraine

hope i’m wrong

Russia's declaration of the DNR, LNR and whatever else Zaprowhatver? as being part of Russia seem like their base position. Maybe they've got flexibility, it's not clear.

Supporting a maximalist Ukrainian position of retaking Crimea is something only active members of the Light Brigade should be pushing for.

I've been very annoyed at those pushing for a negotiated settlement as if it were in the US's power, such that Russia has very clear demands prewar that we somehow violated.

Russia demands some level of vibe wherein Ukraine is friendly to them. This is not an attainable goal.

The likely outcome is probably Russia settling in on yet another frozen conflict in a larger area. Whoever agrees to that runs the risk of getting assassinated, but it's not clear anyone has a military advantage enough to win it all at this point.

«On 30 September 2022, Russia, amid an ongoing invasion of Ukraine, unilaterally declared its annexation of areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.»

Crimea is a part of Ukraine, and Russia should receive no support for any of their claims, on Crimea or elsewhere.

Anders wrote:Crimea is a part of Ukraine, and Russia should receive no support for any of their claims, on Crimea or elsewhere.

Do you think it's realistic to expect that Russia is going to give back Crimea in a negotiated settlement to end the war and get out from under sanctions? Seems unlikely whoever is running things.

simple schoolboy wrote:

Anders wrote:Crimea is a part of Ukraine, and Russia should receive no support for any of their claims, on Crimea or elsewhere.

Do you think it's realistic to expect that Russia is going to give back Crimea in a negotiated settlement to end the war and get out from under sanctions? Seems unlikely whoever is running things.

There won’t be a signed peace agreement where Ukraine gives up large parts of its country, to Russia, who has raped, tortured and killed their citizens for a large amount of time.

Why would you trust Russia in such an agreement? There are allready signed agreements in place, signed by Ukraine, the USA and Russia, guaranteeing Ukraine’s borders, after they gave up their nuclear arms.

If China occupied Florida and Georgia, would the US sign an agreement giving it away, to get peace?
The guy above is Russian.

Anders wrote:

simple schoolboy wrote:

Anders wrote:Crimea is a part of Ukraine, and Russia should receive no support for any of their claims, on Crimea or elsewhere.

Do you think it's realistic to expect that Russia is going to give back Crimea in a negotiated settlement to end the war and get out from under sanctions? Seems unlikely whoever is running things.

There won’t be a signed peace agreement where Ukraine gives up large parts of its country, to Russia, who has raped, tortured and killed their citizens for a large amount of time.

Why would you trust Russia in such an agreement? There are allready signed agreements in place, signed by Ukraine, the USA and Russia, guaranteeing Ukraine’s borders, after they gave up their nuclear arms.

If China occupied Florida and Georgia, would the US sign an agreement giving it away, to get peace?

The guy above is Russian.

I am not discussing the morality of these positions, just what is and is not achievable.

It seems the West is unable to provide enough equipment to overmatch Russia to such an extent that Ukraine can take back all of its territory. This is the maximalist Ukranian position taken by Zelensky.

If they can't take it back and Russia won't negotiate for it, what does an end state look like that can be achieved?

I'd love for the Russian war effort to completely unravel, but they have a pretty long history of just muddling through.

simple schoolboy wrote:

Anders wrote:

simple schoolboy wrote:

Anders wrote:Crimea is a part of Ukraine, and Russia should receive no support for any of their claims, on Crimea or elsewhere.

Do you think it's realistic to expect that Russia is going to give back Crimea in a negotiated settlement to end the war and get out from under sanctions? Seems unlikely whoever is running things.

There won’t be a signed peace agreement where Ukraine gives up large parts of its country, to Russia, who has raped, tortured and killed their citizens for a large amount of time.

Why would you trust Russia in such an agreement? There are allready signed agreements in place, signed by Ukraine, the USA and Russia, guaranteeing Ukraine’s borders, after they gave up their nuclear arms.

If China occupied Florida and Georgia, would the US sign an agreement giving it away, to get peace?

The guy above is Russian.

I am not discussing the morality of these positions, just what is and is not achievable.

It seems the West is unable to provide enough equipment to overmatch Russia to such an extent that Ukraine can take back all of its territory. This is the maximalist Ukranian position taken by Zelensky.

If they can't take it back and Russia won't negotiate for it, what does an end state look like that can be achieved?

I'd love for the Russian war effort to completely unravel, but they have a pretty long history of just muddling through.

Think something like that is a long way off, and Russia also has larger goals than what they have taken so far. Moldova has the worst military in Europe, and plenty of Russian soldiers in Transnistria (Russian breakaway region). Belarus is under pressure to become a part of Russia. Georgia is still under pressure, with two breakaway Russian regions. This is far from over.

Anders wrote:

simple schoolboy wrote:

Anders wrote:

simple schoolboy wrote:

Anders wrote:Crimea is a part of Ukraine, and Russia should receive no support for any of their claims, on Crimea or elsewhere.

Do you think it's realistic to expect that Russia is going to give back Crimea in a negotiated settlement to end the war and get out from under sanctions? Seems unlikely whoever is running things.

There won’t be a signed peace agreement where Ukraine gives up large parts of its country, to Russia, who has raped, tortured and killed their citizens for a large amount of time.

Why would you trust Russia in such an agreement? There are allready signed agreements in place, signed by Ukraine, the USA and Russia, guaranteeing Ukraine’s borders, after they gave up their nuclear arms.

If China occupied Florida and Georgia, would the US sign an agreement giving it away, to get peace?

The guy above is Russian.

I am not discussing the morality of these positions, just what is and is not achievable.

It seems the West is unable to provide enough equipment to overmatch Russia to such an extent that Ukraine can take back all of its territory. This is the maximalist Ukranian position taken by Zelensky.

If they can't take it back and Russia won't negotiate for it, what does an end state look like that can be achieved?

I'd love for the Russian war effort to completely unravel, but they have a pretty long history of just muddling through.

Think something like that is a long way off, and Russia also has larger goals than what they have taken so far. Moldova has the worst military in Europe, and plenty of Russian soldiers in Transnistria (Russian breakaway region). Belarus is under pressure to become a part of Russia. Georgia is still under pressure, with two breakaway Russian regions. This is far from over.

It's kinda funny that a European and American are trading places on the Russia threat. I wonder how you reacted back in 2008.

If you are thinking of the Russian invasion of Georgia, I did support Georgia in 2008. Still, it was a minor conflict compared to the war in Ukraine, which is the largest conflict in Europe since WW2.

I’m sure that for many other Europeans (and everywhere else), this conflict has been a big change in how they see Putin’s regime.

I don't think Ukraine would trust Russia to keep a peace agreement

but I could forsee where they might end up having to make an agreement for lack of a better option if western re-supply fizzles out

e.g. lose the Donbas, keep fighting a low-intensity war of border skirmishes, fending off endless Russian intelligence coup attempts; but Kyiv and the rest of the country can return to peaceful operation without ballistic missile strikes etc.

vs. risking losing the whole country bc Russian war machine re-supplies stronger and keeps gradually pushing

Putin suddenly dying probably the optimal scenario

Anders wrote:If you are thinking of the Russian invasion of Georgia, I did support Georgia in 2008. Still, it was a minor conflict compared to the war in Ukraine, which is the largest conflict in Europe since WW2.

I’m sure that for many other Europeans (and everywhere else), this conflict has been a big change in how they see Putin’s regime.

A "minor" conflict sure, but it showed Russia's ass.

It is to the US/ NATOs eternal discrace that we flew back Georgia's one NATO standard unit after Russia invaded.

One of the dumbest aspects of the Ukraine war in the subject of cluster munitions.

Neither the US nor Ukraine are signatories to cluster munitions treaties. The US (and others*) maintain stocks of these munitions.

With Ukraine running into ammo limitations it would make sense to provide these.

Either squeamishness about offending European sensibilities or other dumb considerations are preventing (public) transfer of these. They aren't call "Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions" for nothing.

*Those that actually planned to fight an actual war at some point.

sadge

although i expect people in the western and urban areas with middle class money or higher probably fled

rural folks prob too poor to flee

This was a good read: https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/ ... -the?sd=pf

Makes me wonder when the Caucasus Campaign will open.