Red Mosquito

I don't know how to imbed video but that Bern Your Enthusiasm SNL skit was absolutely hilarious.

Holy cow, that is spot on. Awesome

That's probably the best SNL sketch since the Will Forte sex offender sketch.

that sketch was perfect

I think I have "primary fatigue." I went all weekend without reading any coverage.

I can't stand Chris Christie, but it was pretty awesome watching him go after Rubio on Saturday night. I have never believed Rubio was as strong a candidate as people/the media portray him to be. The robot memes are hilarious and spot on.

turned2black wrote:I think I have "primary fatigue." I went all weekend without reading any coverage.

This was me in November and December. I basically stopped actively seeking stuff out for the most part. I teach AP Gov so I set up my year to basically revolve around the main events on the political calendar in a given year so I have been over this primary for a long, long time.

Rob wrote:I can't stand Chris Christie, but it was pretty awesome watching him go after Rubio on Saturday night. I have never believed Rubio was as strong a candidate as people/the media portray him to be. The robot memes are hilarious and spot on.

I don't think it's that Rubio is so strong, it's just when you look at the GOP field in terms of GE electability he looks the best. He's an empty conservative suit, but he's an empty suit that usually speaks well in front of a camera, doesn't have a ton of baggage, and can quite possibly take down Hillary (which probably has more to do with how she's currently viewed by many than him) and I don't see many other candidates who can do that while potentially surviving the primaries.

4/5 wrote:

Rob wrote:I can't stand Chris Christie, but it was pretty awesome watching him go after Rubio on Saturday night. I have never believed Rubio was as strong a candidate as people/the media portray him to be. The robot memes are hilarious and spot on.

I don't think it's that Rubio is so strong, it's just when you look at the GOP field in terms of GE electability he looks the best. He's an empty conservative suit, but he's an empty suit that usually speaks well in front of a camera, doesn't have a ton of baggage, and can quite possibly take down Hillary (which probably has more to do with how she's currently viewed by many than him) and I don't see many other candidates who can do that while potentially surviving the primaries.

Chances of a contested convention? 10%?

Simple Torture wrote:

4/5 wrote:

Rob wrote:I can't stand Chris Christie, but it was pretty awesome watching him go after Rubio on Saturday night. I have never believed Rubio was as strong a candidate as people/the media portray him to be. The robot memes are hilarious and spot on.

I don't think it's that Rubio is so strong, it's just when you look at the GOP field in terms of GE electability he looks the best. He's an empty conservative suit, but he's an empty suit that usually speaks well in front of a camera, doesn't have a ton of baggage, and can quite possibly take down Hillary (which probably has more to do with how she's currently viewed by many than him) and I don't see many other candidates who can do that while potentially surviving the primaries.

Chances of a contested convention? 10%?

Sounds about right. Maybe a little higher. If Trump's supporters really do stay with him no matter what (but he's unable to attract newcomers to his tent) that alone could be enough to keep any one candidate from receiving a plurality. I expect Cruz to do well on Super Tuesday, Trump to perform moderately well, and a third candidate (whoever does best in NH tomorrow) to hang around getting votes from the people who don't like those two, which will probably be between a third and half the primary voters depending on the state.

The biggest obstacle in the way of a contested will be that the primaries turn winner-take-all on March 15, so at that point if one of the candidates can eek out 35% pluralities consistently they may be able to get to 1,236 delegates.

4/5 wrote:I teach AP Gov so I set up my year to basically revolve around the main events on the political calendar in a given year so I have been over this primary for a long, long time.

I'm nowhere near qualified to do so, but if I were to be a teacher this is the class that I'd want to teach. When I took my government class, the Monica Lewinsky scandal happened. Quite the amazing time to spend your formative years learning about politics, for sure.

I could probably google this but can you tell me the states/party breakdown for delegates being distributed proportionally and winner take all? I had thought/assumed that the dems were all proportional and the gop were all winner take all.

cutuphalfdead wrote:I could probably google this but can you tell me the states/party breakdown for delegates being distributed proportionally and winner take all? I had thought/assumed that the dems were all proportional and the gop were all winner take all.

That's how it was in the past.
This year Republican rules require all the primaries after the first 4 to be proportional until March 15. At that point it's up to each state how to award delegates, and many of the states are winner take all, Florida first among them.

Basically, the GOP wanted to encourage more competition early, discourage states from front-loading primary dates, but still wrap up the nomination/unify the party w/o it going all the way to the convention.

I think Democrats stay proportional/mixed all the way through.

Green Habit wrote:

4/5 wrote:I teach AP Gov so I set up my year to basically revolve around the main events on the political calendar in a given year so I have been over this primary for a long, long time.

I'm nowhere near qualified to do so, but if I were to be a teacher this is the class that I'd want to teach. When I took my government class, the Monica Lewinsky scandal happened. Quite the amazing time to spend your formative years learning about politics, for sure.

Trust me, you'd be more than fine.

4/5 wrote:

cutuphalfdead wrote:I could probably google this but can you tell me the states/party breakdown for delegates being distributed proportionally and winner take all? I had thought/assumed that the dems were all proportional and the gop were all winner take all.

That's how it was in the past.
This year Republican rules require all the primaries after the first 4 to be proportional until March 15. At that point it's up to each state how to award delegates, and many of the states are winner take all, Florida first among them.

Basically, the GOP wanted to encourage more competition early, discourage states from front-loading primary dates, but still wrap up the nomination/unify the party w/o it going all the way to the convention.

I think Democrats stay proportional/mixed all the way through.

Ah so I didn't just make that up. They changed it.

Yeah, that's how it was in 2008, the last time both parties needed a nominee. The Republicans started shifting away from exclusively using winner take all in 2012.

does your class just cover winner take all kleptocracy or do you cover parliamentary kleptocracy too

4/5 wrote:

turned2black wrote:I think I have "primary fatigue." I went all weekend without reading any coverage.

This was me in November and December. I basically stopped actively seeking stuff out for the most part. I teach AP Gov so I set up my year to basically revolve around the main events on the political calendar in a given year so I have been over this primary for a long, long time.

I'm not teaching next semester and totally checked out of the primary process once the semester ended. The debates especially.