This is assuming Kavanaugh’s testimony doesn’t shock me with its effectiveness:tragabigzanda wrote:not able to watch today, grabbing headlines here and there. would love a review when it's done, also McP's take on GOP response/fallout if he's up for it
I still think that it’s most probable that they take him to a vote and he doesn’t make it. I’d be less surprised now if they withdrew him, but still surprised. Their base would be furious. Also this way the president can tell voters that the senate was the problem...it wasn’t his loss. It’s not impossible that they drop him, depending on his half of this hearing, but that would be a happy surprise to me. They’d have to recognize that the cost of the vote outweighs the benefit, and we just haven’t seen any evidence of that. They probably believe that he’s done, and want that vote done ASAP so they can move on to someone else.
They’ll trot out some weak, carefully selected credibility attacks. “Oh, she’s scared of flying, but gets on planes! Unheard of!” These aren’t actually an attempt to provide any vote cover...they’re a fanning of partisan flames. They’ll want the base mad, energized, and feeling unduly robbed.
I also think that today will cause them yet more heartache in the midterms, although how they maneuver the confirmation vote and loss will decide the severity. If they place him on the court after this, a lot of races will be in play that were not before.
