Red Mosquito

Simple Torture wrote:

4/5 wrote:Wait, what happened to the prosecutor lady?

Graham asked his own questions/made his own statement, and I believe since then no one has referenced her (following on Twitter/blogs, fwiw).

tragabigzanda wrote:Kamala Harris ftw

verb_to_trust wrote:Kennedy is wasting his time with the ol' "look me in the eye" questions.

McParadigm wrote:

tragabigzanda wrote:not able to watch today, grabbing headlines here and there. would love a review when it's done, also McP's take on GOP response/fallout if he's up for it

This is assuming Kavanaugh’s testimony doesn’t shock me with its effectiveness:

I still think that it’s most probable that they take him to a vote and he doesn’t make it. I’d be less surprised now if they withdrew him, but still surprised. Their base would be furious. Also this way the president can tell voters that the senate was the problem...it wasn’t his loss. It’s not impossible that they drop him, depending on his half of this hearing, but that would be a happy surprise to me. They’d have to recognize that the cost of the vote outweighs the benefit, and we just haven’t seen any evidence of that. They probably believe that he’s done, and want that vote done ASAP so they can move on to someone else.

They’ll trot out some weak, carefully selected credibility attacks. “Oh, she’s scared of flying, but gets on planes! Unheard of!” These aren’t actually an attempt to provide any vote cover...they’re a fanning of partisan flames. They’ll want the base mad, energized, and feeling unduly robbed.

I also think that today will cause them yet more heartache in the midterms, although how they maneuver the confirmation vote and loss will decide the severity. If they place him on the court after this, a lot of races will be in play that were not before.

McParadigm wrote:

McParadigm wrote:

tragabigzanda wrote:not able to watch today, grabbing headlines here and there. would love a review when it's done, also McP's take on GOP response/fallout if he's up for it

This is assuming Kavanaugh’s testimony doesn’t shock me with its effectiveness:

I still think that it’s most probable that they take him to a vote and he doesn’t make it. I’d be less surprised now if they withdrew him, but still surprised. Their base would be furious. Also this way the president can tell voters that the senate was the problem...it wasn’t his loss. It’s not impossible that they drop him, depending on his half of this hearing, but that would be a happy surprise to me. They’d have to recognize that the cost of the vote outweighs the benefit, and we just haven’t seen any evidence of that. They probably believe that he’s done, and want that vote done ASAP so they can move on to someone else.

They’ll trot out some weak, carefully selected credibility attacks. “Oh, she’s scared of flying, but gets on planes! Unheard of!” These aren’t actually an attempt to provide any vote cover...they’re a fanning of partisan flames. They’ll want the base mad, energized, and feeling unduly robbed.

I also think that today will cause them yet more heartache in the midterms, although how they maneuver the confirmation vote and loss will decide the severity. If they place him on the court after this, a lot of races will be in play that were not before.

Well, he surprised me. He went full Trump, grabbed the base by the balls, and made it a probable career ender for any Republican to vote no.

Unless something changes, I’d say his odds just shot way up.

washing machine wrote:Do you all remember how confident you were a few hours (pages) ago?

Simple Torture wrote:Jumping on the McP whiskey-drinking wagon: I am also pretty sure he will be confirmed. The GOP caucus meets, agrees to let Collins vote "no" to help he re-election chances, and Pence breaks the tie.