Red Mosquito

I'll live post while in line at the polls tomorrow

GOP (SC)
1. Trump
2. Rubio
3. Cruz

Dems (NEV)
Clinton edges Bernie

I've read that while Nevada is a fairly diverse state, the caucusgoers will primarily be white, which obviously favors Bernie. Still think Hilldog eeks out a victory.

Democratic storyline regardless of who wins:
Is there something about Hillary that makes her fundamentally unelectable?

Have you guys seen this? I saw it a few months ago and it caught my attention.

http://firebrandleft.com/university-100 ... president/

LoathedVermin72 wrote:Have you guys seen this? I saw it a few months ago and it caught my attention.

http://firebrandleft.com/university-100 ... president/

It's interesting, but I wonder: would it really have been that hard to guess the winners of all the elections since 1975? We're only talking 10 elections, and a bunch of those were landslides (let's say it's a landslide if you get at least 379 electoral votes): 1980, 1984, 1988, 1996. Probably the most impressive thing would be predicting 1976 and 2008, especially if you did it a year out from the elections.

4/5 wrote:Democratic storyline regardless of who wins:
Is there something about Hillary that makes her fundamentally unelectable?

Yes, nobody trusts her. I don't think she would be able to motivate people to get out and vote, especially given how scummy her primary campaign has been.

Simple Torture wrote:

LoathedVermin72 wrote:Have you guys seen this? I saw it a few months ago and it caught my attention.

http://firebrandleft.com/university-100 ... president/

It's interesting, but I wonder: would it really have been that hard to guess the winners of all the elections since 1975? We're only talking 10 elections, and a bunch of those were landslides (let's say it's a landslide if you get at least 379 electoral votes): 1980, 1984, 1988, 1996. Probably the most impressive thing would be predicting 1976 and 2008, especially if you did it a year out from the elections.

Hindsight bias.

Problem with that prediction model is that this is unlike any election there has ever been. This primary season has already made people like Nate Silver and John Sides look like idiots.

Also, it has Bernie winning several southern states in the primary, which isn't gonna happen.

McParadigm wrote:

Simple Torture wrote:

LoathedVermin72 wrote:Have you guys seen this? I saw it a few months ago and it caught my attention.

http://firebrandleft.com/university-100 ... president/

It's interesting, but I wonder: would it really have been that hard to guess the winners of all the elections since 1975? We're only talking 10 elections, and a bunch of those were landslides (let's say it's a landslide if you get at least 379 electoral votes): 1980, 1984, 1988, 1996. Probably the most impressive thing would be predicting 1976 and 2008, especially if you did it a year out from the elections.

Hindsight bias.

Exactly.
--The outcome of the Redskins game before a presidential election repeatedly predicted the outcome...until it didn't.
--The winner of Missouri's electoral votes repeatedly predicted the outcome..until it didn't.

This one will ultimately be no different. And that electoral map is laughable--Sanders winning Oklahoma and Utah but losing Maryland (with O'Malley on the ticket?!) and Illinois?

McParadigm wrote:

Simple Torture wrote:

LoathedVermin72 wrote:Have you guys seen this? I saw it a few months ago and it caught my attention.

http://firebrandleft.com/university-100 ... president/

It's interesting, but I wonder: would it really have been that hard to guess the winners of all the elections since 1975? We're only talking 10 elections, and a bunch of those were landslides (let's say it's a landslide if you get at least 379 electoral votes): 1980, 1984, 1988, 1996. Probably the most impressive thing would be predicting 1976 and 2008, especially if you did it a year out from the elections.

Hindsight bias.

Probably. I wasn't around or conscious enough for 80, 84, or 88, so I'm not sure if those were considered shoe-ins before they happened. I seem to remember Clinton feeling inevitable in 1992, but that was probably after the primaries, and it looks like these predictions were made before. So the more I think about it, the more interesting it seems--but it's still only 10 elections, so that's a small sample size.

Simple Torture wrote:I seem to remember Clinton feeling inevitable in 1992, but that was probably after the primaries, and it looks like these predictions were made before.

The irony of Clinton's win is so many more prominent Democrats decided not to run in 1992 because they thought a Bush re-election was inevitable. That was a really weird year.

Green Habit wrote:

Simple Torture wrote:I seem to remember Clinton feeling inevitable in 1992, but that was probably after the primaries, and it looks like these predictions were made before.

The irony of Clinton's win is so many more prominent Democrats decided not to run in 1992 because they thought a Bush re-election was inevitable. That was a really weird year.

LoathedVermin72 wrote:Have you guys seen this? I saw it a few months ago and it caught my attention.

http://firebrandleft.com/university-100 ... president/

Been there, done that. (the college, that is).

Salon hops on the "Bern the Middle Class Alive" train.

https://www.salon.com/2016/02/19/hillar ... t_the_gop/

Democratic policy experts really aren't feeling the bern. Typical establishment shills.

Trump is already shifting his stances. He's sounded more like a racist Democrat than like a Republican recently.

Hilldog!

4/5 wrote:Democratic storyline regardless of who wins:
Is there something about Hillary that makes her fundamentally unelectable?

Ummmmm... No.

I think she starts rolling now.

turned2black wrote:

4/5 wrote:Democratic storyline regardless of who wins:
Is there something about Hillary that makes her fundamentally unelectable?

Ummmmm... No.

I think she starts rolling now.

Yeah, I think so too. South Carolina is gonna be rough for Bernie.

Someone go resuscitate 96583UP.

sanders killed her with independents apparently. that wont help him in later primaries but bodes ill for clinton in the general election. right now sanders is probably the stronger candidate


primary advantage is still clintons but she hasnt exactly sewed up the nomination just yet. march 1st is a long way away