Red Mosquito

MadTIGERmaN wrote:

durdencommatyler wrote:

MattA75 wrote:

MadTIGERmaN wrote:

Mecca wrote:Andy Reid made Alex Smith a winning QB. Say what you will about his poor clock management, but its kinda hard to deny that.

say what you will about his clock management, but he definitely knows how to take an average (or even bad QB) and put them in a position to win. And his coached teams tend to, win. They just don't know how to win, when it matters. But as an Eagles fan? I wish he never left. And compared to Chip Kelly? Andy Reid is the greatest clock manager of all time.

Andy Reid is a good coach, but as you said, none of his teams ever know how to win when it matters...which was really my bigger point that I probably could have made in a better way...they're a good team but I just cannot take them as a serious championship contender with that coach/QB combo

Which is totally understandable. I get that. Maybe better than most. My whole initial argument was that I don't think the Chiefs are a 6 win team this year. That seems incredibly low to me. Especially as the Raiders are being anointed the AFCW Champs. Especially since the Raiders haven't beaten this coach/QB combo in two years.

Was so frustrating as an Eagles fan in the beginning of that run. Such a GREAT Defense, but he could never get the offense to run a clock out for the life of him. Its really amazing how many GREAT Defensive units the Eagles have had over the years to never win a super bowl. So much for defense wins championships.

Right?

durdencommatyler wrote:

MattA75 wrote:

MadTIGERmaN wrote:

Mecca wrote:Andy Reid made Alex Smith a winning QB. Say what you will about his poor clock management, but its kinda hard to deny that.

say what you will about his clock management, but he definitely knows how to take an average (or even bad QB) and put them in a position to win. And his coached teams tend to, win. They just don't know how to win, when it matters. But as an Eagles fan? I wish he never left. And compared to Chip Kelly? Andy Reid is the greatest clock manager of all time.

Andy Reid is a good coach, but as you said, none of his teams ever know how to win when it matters...which was really my bigger point that I probably could have made in a better way...they're a good team but I just cannot take them as a serious championship contender with that coach/QB combo

Which is totally understandable. I get that. Maybe better than most. My whole initial argument was that I don't think the Chiefs are a 6 win team this year. That seems incredibly low to me. Especially as the Raiders are being anointed the AFCW Champs. Especially since the Raiders haven't beaten this coach/QB combo in two years.

6 wins is utterly ridiculous...I can see them coming in at 9 or 10 just because I think the division is very competitive (even the Chargers could be a pain in the ass this year), and they're stuck going to New England to open the season...but 9 or 10 would be a worst case scenario barring their whole team getting hurt, they very easily could be an 11 or 12 win team

bullshit. i am thinking at least a 22- or 23- win season for the Chiefs this year

I feel like I stirred some shit up with my shits-and-giggles post about guessing teams' records that's wrong every year. Still, though, I think the Chiefs have a tough schedule and are gonna face some hard times this year. Last year they got to play the AFC and NFC south, two divisions that had a combined 62-66 w/l record (.484%)*. This year, they play the AFC/NFC easts, which put together a 75-52-1 record last year (.589).

*They did have a big win against the Falcons on the road, which you've gotta give respect for.

Last season, Rotoworld ranked the Chiefs as having the 25th most difficult schedule in the league (meaning it was the 8th easiest). This year they have them ranked as the 2nd most difficult. By most measures, the Chiefs were a very good team last year, but not great (check out DVOA and their Pythagorean wins). This year they'll just need to be plain great or insanely lucky to get through their schedule and into the playoffs, ya know? 6-10 was a guess, but I could be talked into 8-8 or 9-7 too--but you'd have to rake me over hot coals to get me to say they'll make the playoffs.

P.S. on Any Reid: obviously a great coach (did he go to 4 straight NFC Championship games?), but the last time he went to the playoffs with a 12+ win team, they went 6-10 the next year, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Simple Torture wrote:I feel like I stirred some shit up with my shits-and-giggles post about guessing teams' records that's wrong every year. Still, though, I think the Chiefs have a tough schedule and are gonna face some hard times this year. Last year they got to play the AFC and NFC south, two divisions that had a combined 62-66 w/l record (.484%)*. This year, they play the AFC/NFC easts, which put together a 75-52-1 record last year (.589).

*They did have a big win against the Falcons on the road, which you've gotta give respect for.

Last season, Rotoworld ranked the Chiefs as having the 25th most difficult schedule in the league (meaning it was the 8th easiest). This year they have them ranked as the 2nd most difficult. By most measures, the Chiefs were a very good team last year, but not great (check out DVOA and their Pythagorean wins). This year they'll just need to be plain great or insanely lucky to get through their schedule and into the playoffs, ya know? 6-10 was a guess, but I could be talked into 8-8 or 9-7 too--but you'd have to rake me over hot coals to get me to say they'll make the playoffs.

P.S. on Any Reid: obviously a great coach (did he go to 4 straight NFC Championship games?), but the last time he went to the playoffs with a 12+ win team, they went 6-10 the next year, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

4 straight, and 5 in 7 seasons, not quiet as bad as the 90s Bills.

What's the worst game you're stuck with this weekend? BUF-NYJ is going to be a good time to mow the lawn: http://506sports.com/nfl.php?yr=2017&wk=1

Simple Torture wrote:What's the worst game you're stuck with this weekend? BUF-NYJ is going to be a good time to mow the lawn: http://506sports.com/nfl.php?yr=2017&wk=1

Red Zone channel has eliminated that for me. No commercials and whatever game is good at the moment.

Simple Torture wrote:I feel like I stirred some shit up with my shits-and-giggles post about guessing teams' records that's wrong every year. Still, though, I think the Chiefs have a tough schedule and are gonna face some hard times this year. Last year they got to play the AFC and NFC south, two divisions that had a combined 62-66 w/l record (.484%)*. This year, they play the AFC/NFC easts, which put together a 75-52-1 record last year (.589).

*They did have a big win against the Falcons on the road, which you've gotta give respect for.

Last season, Rotoworld ranked the Chiefs as having the 25th most difficult schedule in the league (meaning it was the 8th easiest). This year they have them ranked as the 2nd most difficult. By most measures, the Chiefs were a very good team last year, but not great (check out DVOA and their Pythagorean wins). This year they'll just need to be plain great or insanely lucky to get through their schedule and into the playoffs, ya know? 6-10 was a guess, but I could be talked into 8-8 or 9-7 too--but you'd have to rake me over hot coals to get me to say they'll make the playoffs.

P.S. on Any Reid: obviously a great coach (did he go to 4 straight NFC Championship games?), but the last time he went to the playoffs with a 12+ win team, they went 6-10 the next year, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'm not saying it'll be easy. But what makes you think Denver is so far and away superior? Don't they have the most difficult strength of schedule this year based on that rotoworld link? And their QB play is going to be exactly the same (mediocre) as it was last year. They've lost some defensive depth (though I still think they're one of the best in the NFL). Their RB situation is a big fat question mark, dotted by two guys that have difficulty staying healthy. And they have to play the Chiefs twice. And the Chiefs have beaten them 3 games in a row now.

I guess I just don't understand how your s.o.s. argument damns the Chiefs so heavily but seems to have no affect on the Broncos. Just seems weird to me. I don't know. I respect the hell out of the Broncos and I could easily see them winning the division. I'm not trying to throw shade at them. I don't expect the Chiefs to sweep the Broncos this year. At least one of the Chief's loses will be against Denver. I'm sure of it. They can't possibly sustain the AFCW win streak that they're on.

Whatever. It doesn't matter. After tonight's shellacking, I'm sure I'll be back her tomorrow agreeing with your 6 win prediction.

i can't believe you only have my raiders going 12-4, s_t

Simple Torture wrote:I feel like I stirred some shit up with my shits-and-giggles post about guessing teams' records that's wrong every year. Still, though, I think the Chiefs have a tough schedule and are gonna face some hard times this year. Last year they got to play the AFC and NFC south, two divisions that had a combined 62-66 w/l record (.484%)*. This year, they play the AFC/NFC easts, which put together a 75-52-1 record last year (.589).

*They did have a big win against the Falcons on the road, which you've gotta give respect for.

Last season, Rotoworld ranked the Chiefs as having the 25th most difficult schedule in the league (meaning it was the 8th easiest). This year they have them ranked as the 2nd most difficult. By most measures, the Chiefs were a very good team last year, but not great (check out DVOA and their Pythagorean wins). This year they'll just need to be plain great or insanely lucky to get through their schedule and into the playoffs, ya know? 6-10 was a guess, but I could be talked into 8-8 or 9-7 too--but you'd have to rake me over hot coals to get me to say they'll make the playoffs.

P.S. on Any Reid: obviously a great coach (did he go to 4 straight NFC Championship games?), but the last time he went to the playoffs with a 12+ win team, they went 6-10 the next year, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Using last year's strength of schedule is a dark art. It never turns out to be the same once some games are played.

Simple Torture wrote:What's the worst game you're stuck with this weekend? BUF-NYJ is going to be a good time to mow the lawn: http://506sports.com/nfl.php?yr=2017&wk=1

That game could be tied for the worst game of the entire season. Maybe whenever the Jets and Browns play each other could be worse.

Green Habit wrote:

Simple Torture wrote:What's the worst game you're stuck with this weekend? BUF-NYJ is going to be a good time to mow the lawn: http://506sports.com/nfl.php?yr=2017&wk=1

That game could be tied for the worst game of the entire season. Maybe whenever the Jets and Browns play each other could be worse.

Jets-Jaguars Week 4.

AFC
Pats: 12-4
Fins: 8-8
Bills: 6-10
Jets: 5-11

Steelers: 11-5
Ravens: 9-7
Bengals: 8-8
Browns: 3-13

Colts: 10-6
Titans: 9-7
Texans: 8-8
Jags: 5-11

Chiefs: 11-5
Broncos: 9-7
Raiders: 8-8
Chargers: 6-10

NFC
Cowboys: 10-6
Giants: 9-7
Eagles: 8-8
Redskins: 6-10

Packers: 11-5
Vikes: 9-7
Lions: 7-9
Bears: 4-12

Falcons: 11-5
Panthers: 10-6
Bucs: 8-8
Saints: 6-10

Seahawks: 11-5
Cards: 10-6
49ers: 4-12
Rams: 4-12

---------------------

NFC: Packers, Falcons, Seahawks, Cowboys, Cards, Giants
AFC: Pats, Steelers, Chiefs, Colts, Ravens, Broncos
NFC Champ: Seahawks over Packers
AFC Champ: Pats over Steelers
SB: Seahawks over Pats
Season and SB MVP: Russell Wilson

Simple Torture wrote:

Green Habit wrote:

Simple Torture wrote:What's the worst game you're stuck with this weekend? BUF-NYJ is going to be a good time to mow the lawn: http://506sports.com/nfl.php?yr=2017&wk=1

That game could be tied for the worst game of the entire season. Maybe whenever the Jets and Browns play each other could be worse.

Jets-Jaguars Week 4.

There are a lot of really bad teams in the AFC this year.

Police unions work really hard to give unions in general an unfairly bad name.

Taking the Pats +8.5 tonight in my pick 'em league. Thoughts?

Coach wrote:Taking the Pats +8.5 tonight in my pick 'em league. Thoughts?

Probably a good idea. I expect the Pats to cover the spread.

durdencommatyler wrote:

Coach wrote:Taking the Pats +8.5 tonight in my pick 'em league. Thoughts?

Probably a good idea. I expect the Pats to cover the spread.

I hate taking that many pts, but it's opening night, chiefs have a good defense, but Brady will likely put up 30 - 35 pts.

Coach wrote:

durdencommatyler wrote:

Coach wrote:Taking the Pats +8.5 tonight in my pick 'em league. Thoughts?

Probably a good idea. I expect the Pats to cover the spread.

I hate taking that many pts, but it's opening night, chiefs have a good defense, but Brady will likely put up 30 - 35 pts.

The only things you guys have going against you are weird things. Like how for some reason, historically, The Chiefs play SUPER well on Thurs night. That's not really a stat, y'know? So.... roll with it. There's no reason why the Pats shouldn't dominate tonight. And that's coming from a massive Chiefs fan who has defended them all over this thread the last week or so.