Red Mosquito

Green Habit wrote:

They were talking about that the other day on their podcast about the "OMG so many racists" polls that came out. A majority of people voting for Trump (according to exit polls) want to ban all Muslims from entering the US, disagree with the Emancipation Proclamation, and so on and so forth. But if it's 50/50 among his supporters, the actual number of people (and percentage of the voting population) is so minuscule.

turned2black wrote:I question Bernie's strategy of simply giving up in S.C. He should have hit it hard after Nevada. I know it wouldn't have made much of a huge difference in S.C., but it would have at least given the appearance that he wasn't simple waving the white flag. Losing by a respectable 20% or so in S.C. was more important than scratching for a few extra votes in Super Tuesday states. He needed to fight the idea that Hilldog is inevitable.

He had a window, too, after that super predator incident. But if this does pull out an extra few wins in Super Tuesday no one will remember SC.

The last few national polls I saw have him within a few percentage points of Clinton. Winning a few key states enables him to keep shifting the 'I don't like her but she's inevitable' voters away from Clinton and mobilize more voters to show up for primaries. Closed primaries with stricter same day registration rules will make that tougher.

Smart money is still on Clinton, but I remain in the camp that can see Bernie finding a way to make this work. It's not probable, but it is possible. He could really use another major Hilary scandal, though.

out of anecdotal curiosity, how many of you, in this extremely limited and demographically inaccurate sample, know people who are just flat out excited for Clinton? The only one I know is my mom.

stip wrote:out of anecdotal curiosity, how many of you, in this extremely limited and demographically inaccurate sample, know people who are just flat out excited for Clinton? The only one I know is my mom.

Nobody.

stip wrote: The last few national polls I saw have him within a few percentage points of Clinton. Winning a few key states enables him to keep shifting the 'I don't like her but she's inevitable' voters away from Clinton and mobilize more voters to show up for primaries. Closed primaries with stricter same day registration rules will make that tougher.

I love you to death, stip, but the only polls that really matter now are the Super Tuesday states, Michigan (3/8), and Ohio and Florida (3/15). Clinton could conceivably go 9/10 in those states based on the polls that are out there now, and Sanders could be all but mathematically eliminated by that point.

stip wrote:out of anecdotal curiosity, how many of you, in this extremely limited and demographically inaccurate sample, know people who are just flat out excited for Clinton? The only one I know is my mom.

6.

My mom, my aunt, myself and 3 black cousins.

stip wrote:out of anecdotal curiosity, how many of you, in this extremely limited and demographically inaccurate sample, know people who are just flat out excited for Clinton? The only one I know is my mom.

I have a lot of friends who are very politically active, and almost all of them are liberal, and I have very, very few who are excited for/actively campaigning for Clinton. And the demographics are very strange: of the few I can think of off the top of my head, they're all moderate-leaning men in their twenties. Just going by my Facebook, where a lot of people I'm friends with are liberal academics )(and a large portion are vocal feminists), most people who discuss politics are either pro-Bernie, anti-Trump, or just sort of biding their time waiting for the general election.

Simple Torture wrote:

stip wrote: The last few national polls I saw have him within a few percentage points of Clinton. Winning a few key states enables him to keep shifting the 'I don't like her but she's inevitable' voters away from Clinton and mobilize more voters to show up for primaries. Closed primaries with stricter same day registration rules will make that tougher.

I love you to death, stip, but the only polls that really matter now are the Super Tuesday states, Michigan (3/8), and Ohio and Florida (3/15). Clinton could conceivably go 9/10 in those states based on the polls that are out there now, and Sanders could be all but mathematically eliminated by that point.

Yup. It's over.

Strat wrote:

Just grab a brewski and head out onto the mountain in the sunshine, you'll feel better.

Simple Torture wrote:

Strat wrote:

Just grab a brewski and head out onto the mountain in the sunshine, you'll feel better.

YOU KNOW IM WORKING!

ouch, Simple. Ouch.

What are the chances for a sandrs/clinton ticket ? Figure that would all but wipe the GOP out of contention no matter who gets the nod

Simple Torture wrote:

stip wrote: The last few national polls I saw have him within a few percentage points of Clinton. Winning a few key states enables him to keep shifting the 'I don't like her but she's inevitable' voters away from Clinton and mobilize more voters to show up for primaries. Closed primaries with stricter same day registration rules will make that tougher.

I love you to death, stip, but the only polls that really matter now are the Super Tuesday states, Michigan (3/8), and Ohio and Florida (3/15). Clinton could conceivably go 9/10 in those states based on the polls that are out there now, and Sanders could be all but mathematically eliminated by that point.

Yup, which is why I understand why Sanders skipped SC. He's going to get obliterated in the south, but if he stays competitive in the states democrats are likely to win and pulls out a few surprise victories he buys more time.

I preface every one of my Sanders comments with the caveat that Clinton is clearly likely to win. If I was going to bet, I wouldn't be betting on Sanders. But a deeply unpopular establishment figure in a hideously anti-establishment year against a rising threat generating much larger levels of enthusiasm isn't fully out until the math takes him out.

At this point he probably needs a scandal.

Strat wrote:What are the chances for a sandrs/clinton ticket ? Figure that would all but wipe the GOP out of contention no matter who gets the nod

Very little chance, I think. I don't think VP is a position in which Sanders could continue the work he likes to do--he'd either be debating on the Senate floor or be President to set the debate, I think, and not the weird figure-headish guy who usually gets to be VP. Clinton has lots of options, and if it looks like Trump's going to be the VP, one left-field option would be to choose a woman as a running mate, see if Trump would up the misogynistic rhetoric, and then try to encourage women to vote to block him. But more likely, I'd see her picking a non-controversial young Hispanic man. One of the Castro twins would be interesting.

The problem for Sanders is the Dem system of awarding delegates is gonna work against him now. A 150 to 200 delegate lead (if we aren't gonna count superdelegates) is gonna be virtually impossible to overcome now since it's not winner-take-all.

stip wrote:At this point he probably needs a scandal.

I had a theory that Martin O'Malley was going to stick it out waaaaaay longer than people thought he should just to see if Clinton would get embroiled in a scandal that would knock her out. But, yeah, that's Sanders' only hope at this point.

Hillary Clinton representing liberals is a very depressing thought. If this were Europe she would be a conservative.

Im up for anything to keep Trump out of the white house. Good lawd.

Thanks for the input, strat.

Strat wrote:Im up for anything to keep Trump out of the white house. Good lawd.

Thanks for the input, strat.

You should only vote for someone you believe in.