Red Mosquito

tragabigzanda wrote:

Strat wrote:

tragabigzanda wrote:Trag ready to not see 40 IBCMs launched in response by the US because of a decrepit POTUS driving poor communications combined with fractured, rapid-fire decision making across three Eastern hemisphere nuclear-armed countries

You are basing your opinions off that article you posted, which stated early on that Putin has no desire to take over more of eastern europe, and thus created their entire narrative off that. Cause if the US/western world truly believed Putin was going to march further west, they would have taken drastic measures already.

I think that is a flawed argument. And it leads to just letting Putin take land and supposes he is playing with good intentions.

Wrong on two counts.

I’m basing a lot of my opinion on Nuclear War: A Scenario; and I have no idea/opinion on what Putin’s plans are regarding further expansion.

No one knows if he’s bluffing. But the order of operations for retaliation should a nuclear launch be detected are razor thin; we’re talking about 10-30 minutes, depending on a variety of really fragile, complicated factors, for every other nuclear-armed country to decide if the traveling missile they see on their radar warrants a quick and decisive counter attack.

Putin’s already won this thing. If the US doesn’t allow access to their satellites for long-range mission guidance, it seems the Ukraine has little options left; and if they do allow access, then Putin claims latitude to escalate and we enter a very real game of chicken around use of nukes.

Game’s already over for Ukraine. I don’t think it’s to anyone’s benefit to bring the rest of the world along as collateral.

tragabigzanda wrote:You make some good points. But alternate take: If US allows use of satellites for long-range attacks, does China feel emboldened to finally make a play for Taiwan? Are we sucked into three separate proxy wars just before an election?

96583UP wrote:

tragabigzanda wrote:You make some good points. But alternate take: If US allows use of satellites for long-range attacks, does China feel emboldened to finally make a play for Taiwan? Are we sucked into three separate proxy wars just before an election?

China's economy is too weak right now to invade Taiwan. They can't risk further cutoff from foreign direct investment. They are stuck in a deflation spiral with huge youth unemployment.

But the USA is concerned about the growing partnership between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran

We need all the nations on the planet that we can to help resist their behavior

Success is not guaranteed

Europe can help by significantly increasing their defense spending

tragabigzanda wrote:

simple schoolboy wrote:

96583UP wrote:

tragabigzanda wrote:You make some good points. But alternate take: If US allows use of satellites for long-range attacks, does China feel emboldened to finally make a play for Taiwan? Are we sucked into three separate proxy wars just before an election?

China's economy is too weak right now to invade Taiwan. They can't risk further cutoff from foreign direct investment. They are stuck in a deflation spiral with huge youth unemployment.

But the USA is concerned about the growing partnership between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran

We need all the nations on the planet that we can to help resist their behavior

Success is not guaranteed

Europe can help by significantly increasing their defense spending

If China wanted to blockade and declare Taiwan reunified, now is probably about as good a time as ever, what with all the US carriers busy in the Middle East. Either they figure they can merely wait Taiwan out or they are less than confident in their ability to pull off something kinetic.

Apparently the reserve training for the Taiwanese military is fairly demoralizing, so maybe China figures they'll cave at the first sign of pressure and feels no need to advance any hard timelines.

I’m generally more aligned with this, e.g. timing is good. And people I personally know who do a lot of DOD contract work seem to think some sort of maneuver is imminent.

But unlike SS, I’m thinking less about US fleet, and more about Japan’s fleet as a US proxy.

tragabigzanda wrote:

simple schoolboy wrote:

tragabigzanda wrote:

simple schoolboy wrote:

96583UP wrote:

tragabigzanda wrote:You make some good points. But alternate take: If US allows use of satellites for long-range attacks, does China feel emboldened to finally make a play for Taiwan? Are we sucked into three separate proxy wars just before an election?

China's economy is too weak right now to invade Taiwan. They can't risk further cutoff from foreign direct investment. They are stuck in a deflation spiral with huge youth unemployment.

But the USA is concerned about the growing partnership between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran

We need all the nations on the planet that we can to help resist their behavior

Success is not guaranteed

Europe can help by significantly increasing their defense spending

If China wanted to blockade and declare Taiwan reunified, now is probably about as good a time as ever, what with all the US carriers busy in the Middle East. Either they figure they can merely wait Taiwan out or they are less than confident in their ability to pull off something kinetic.

Apparently the reserve training for the Taiwanese military is fairly demoralizing, so maybe China figures they'll cave at the first sign of pressure and feels no need to advance any hard timelines.

I’m generally more aligned with this, e.g. timing is good. And people I personally know who do a lot of DOD contract work seem to think some sort of maneuver is imminent.

But unlike SS, I’m thinking less about US fleet, and more about Japan’s fleet as a US proxy.

Japan has those big amphibious assault ships that can support F-35Bs, but have they ordered squadrons to actually operate off of them?

They are upping their spending, but when are they actually going to see the pay off?

I have no counterpoint because this is about where my knowledge ends. Explain more!

Bi_3 wrote:I hope you all realize Trag is mostly right over these last few pages.