Red Mosquito

96583UP wrote:

Green Habit wrote:

SunKing wrote:

Yeah, this will work out well for Democrats if Biden dies of old age or gets assassinated by a crazed Republican partisan. See: John Tyler.

if Biden chose a moderate republican like Larry Hogan should everyone (not on the party periphery) still freak out?

Yes.

SunKing wrote:

96583UP wrote:

Green Habit wrote:

SunKing wrote:

Yeah, this will work out well for Democrats if Biden dies of old age or gets assassinated by a crazed Republican partisan. See: John Tyler.

if Biden chose a moderate republican like Larry Hogan should everyone (not on the party periphery) still freak out?

Yes.

And without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it’s time for our citizens to crack each other’s heads open and feast on the goo inside?

Larry Hogan is a decent man in an indecent world. You leave his fat bald majesty alone

I’m still going to bet Biden chooses Kamala Harris as his running mate. It’s a demographic match to quell the base’s concerns and the fact that she is a former prosecutor that can put the president’s record on cross examination in the VP debate (what else does a VP candidate really do?) is even better.

nah not after she attacked him over busing

cory booker and biden would be a match made in heaven tho

I want Rosario in the white house.

96583UP wrote:nah not after she attacked him over busing

cory booker and biden would be a match made in heaven tho

I think he’ll smooth that over with a joke about getting a drubbing from her in the debate. If not her, I think he has to go progressive to try to bring in some level of enthusiasm from the base.

if he wins the democratic nomination i don’t think his general election need will be to rally progressives. i think he will need to rally republican moderates. the progressives will vote for biden either way for the sake of beating trump (see McP nnnnnnnnnggggghhhhhhaaaaaaaaa post)

and we all know there is no better way to rally republican moderates than with a black man from new jersey

96583UP wrote:if he wins the democratic nomination i don’t think his general election need will be to rally progressives. i think he will need to rally republican moderates. the progressives will vote for biden either way for the sake of beating trump (see McP nnnnnnnnnggggghhhhhhaaaaaaaaa post)

These are progressives we are talking about. The want four more years

96583UP wrote:if he wins the democratic nomination i don’t think his general election need will be to rally progressives. i think he will need to rally republican moderates. the progressives will vote for biden either way for the sake of beating trump (see McP nnnnnnnnnggggghhhhhhaaaaaaaaa post)

A. The progressive vote isn’t impervious to suppression. The more a candidacy feels like a purposeful rejection of progressivism, the more it’s going to have an impact. And even a few percentage points shaved off the top can be expensive in the general. A lot of this is youth turnout, which more than doubled in 2018. Everyone likes to point to older people as the more reliable (ie gettable) voters, but the under 30 Democrat vote increased by 2 million in a year when Democrats had a 9 million popular vote advantage, and when the total Democratic vote nationwide was around 60 million. One in 30 Democratic voters was a new, young voter that year. They made up a fifth of the vote advantage, and they...do not care for Biden. You’d be better off picking a running mate that motivates that group than picking one who shuts them the rest of the way out. You’re not picking up two million conservative anything on a D ticket.

B. In 2018, Republican moderates showed up in big numbers...to vote Republican. Uncommitted moderates are largely mythological. If you look back to 2016, Democrats lost ground with two key, large voting groups: nonwhite voters (through low turnout), and low education white voters (who voted and still support Trump). Neither of these groups really qualifies as more moderate than the nation at large. They both maintain views on topics like gun control, environmentalism, healthcare, and college accessibility that match one party or another.

But the thing is: low education whites were a major driving force in every primary that evicted a moderate Republican in favor of a Trumpier one, even in more moderate states. They’re a lot more locked in than pundits like to pretend.

Let's not let some spurious dreck like documented voting trends get in the way of a good centrist narrative, though.

Excuses planted early in the season risk wilting during peak times

SunKing wrote:Let's not let some spurious dreck like documented voting trends get in the way of a good centrist narrative, though.

because the far left has such a robust track record of presidential election victories

McParadigm wrote:

96583UP wrote:if he wins the democratic nomination i don’t think his general election need will be to rally progressives. i think he will need to rally republican moderates. the progressives will vote for biden either way for the sake of beating trump (see McP nnnnnnnnnggggghhhhhhaaaaaaaaa post)

A. The progressive vote isn’t impervious to suppression. The more a candidacy feels like a purposeful rejection of progressivism, the more it’s going to have an impact. And even a few percentage points shaved off the top can be expensive in the general. A lot of this is youth turnout, which more than doubled in 2018. Everyone likes to point to older people as the more reliable (ie gettable) voters, but the under 30 Democrat vote increased by 2 million in a year when Democrats had a 9 million popular vote advantage, and when the total Democratic vote nationwide was around 60 million. One in 30 Democratic voters was a new, young voter that year. They made up a fifth of the vote advantage, and they...do not care for Biden. You’d be better off picking a running mate that motivates that group than picking one who shuts them the rest of the way out. You’re not picking up two million conservative anything on a D ticket.

B. In 2018, Republican moderates showed up in big numbers...to vote Republican. Uncommitted moderates are largely mythological. If you look back to 2016, Democrats lost ground with two key, large voting groups: nonwhite voters (through low turnout), and low education white voters (who voted and still support Trump). Neither of these groups really qualifies as more moderate than the nation at large. They both maintain views on topics like gun control, environmentalism, healthcare, and college accessibility that match one party or another.

But the thing is: low education whites were a major driving force in every primary that evicted a moderate Republican in favor of a Trumpier one, even in more moderate states. They’re a lot more locked in than pundits like to pretend.

I have no doubt, when the main show begins, and trump is spewing nationally televised hate, that the progressive base will come out and vote for biden. and if biden needs, at any time, to boost his appeal among progressives, he can just have his speechwriters sprinkle in more crap about the environment and LGBTQ and whatever else is trending on lib twitter at the time; and then have matt damon re-tweet it, and the progressive voters will turn out.

I have not seen much out there about meaningful impact from Democratic new voter registration initiatives, but I have seen a few articles about voter purges in swing states. If that’s the case then what the Dems need is to win over Republicans who are offended by Trump.

or blacks not yet disenfranchised: enter cory booker and his easy-on-the-eyes boo

I'm convinced this campaign is a big troll.

The only people who like open office plans are rich assholes with a private office.

and big ball market traders who sit on the trade floor with their traders

Bill Lumbergh
B. Lumbergh
Blumbergh
Bloomberg

96583UP wrote:and big ball market traders who sit on the trade floor with their traders

Just give it up dude