Red Mosquito

Yeah, totally. I posted yesterday about how the Dems way of splitting delegates is gonna work against him now.

I'm going to prognosticate and pray that I'm right: and from the ashes of a trump nomination rises a new, third party that embraces social liberalism and fiscal conservatism

turned2black wrote:Yeah, totally. I posted yesterday about how the Dems way of splitting delegates is gonna work against him now.

I don't think the proportional system really hurts him, I think the superdelegates and the order of states on the calendar were much bigger disadvantages for him and ultimately just too much to overcome barring something very unexpected.

Sure. Obviously the SEC Primary is bad for him.

But it's harder to "catch up" or ride any momentum when they are splitting delegates. If he could string a couple of surprise victories together that would have a hell of a lot more impact if it were "winner take all", both from a delegate and perception standpoint. As it is now, Clinton's "inevitability" has taken over.

Chris_H_2 wrote:I'm going to prognosticate and pray that I'm right: and from the ashes of a trump nomination rises a new, third party that embraces social liberalism and fiscal conservatism

If a third party were to rise (and it's very difficult to happen in the American system), I'd be more worried that the ashes of a Trump nomination would produce the exact opposite.

4/5 wrote:

Simple Torture wrote:

turned2black wrote:Realistically, Bernie needs to win all 4 of the competitive races (Colorado, Minnesota, Massachusetts and Oklahoma) tonight to stay in the race.

It'd also help if he wins 86% of the vote in Vermont so he can sweep the delegates.

Get that Vermont windfall of 16 delegates!!!

lol well, as we know, it's all about narrative at this point for Bernie--can he tell a compelling enough story to convince people that he should stay in the race to affect the conversation? If he can't even sweep his own state, where he's been very popular for decades, people could make the argument that he should drop out now (surely, some people will make that argument anyways if he goes only 2/12 or even 4/12). I certainly don't think he's going to win the nomination by grabbing 2 extra delegates in Vermont.

turned2black wrote:Sure. Obviously the SEC Primary is bad for him.

But it's harder to "catch up" or ride any momentum when they are splitting delegates. If he could string a couple of surprise victories together that would have a hell of a lot more impact if it were "winner take all", both from a delegate and perception standpoint. As it is now, Clinton's "inevitability" has taken over.

I see it the other way. He'd have "lost" 3 of the 4 states already and the "inevitability" storyline that existed pre-#feelthebern surge would have never really gone away. I think it'd put him in such a big hole at this stage that it'd be even more over before the calendar turns more favorable.

With winner-take-all it'd be 132-24 right now (instead of 91-65). After tonight, giving him the 4 (edit: 5) states you said he has to win it would be: 703-302.

I get what you're saying, though. If we take it as a given that he'd be losing after Super Tuesday either way at least winner-take-all primaries would give him a (mostly false) glimmer of hope like Rubio and Cruz will convince themselves that they have, rather than have to acknowledge the fact that he could win 60/40 the rest of the way and barring superdelegates turning on Hillary en masse he still has no hope with the proportional primary.

So, I'm going to go drink at a bar in about an hour that's next to where Trump is having a hate speech rally. I registered for free tickets for me and a buddy and we're just going down there to see what the circus is like. Maybe we'll actually go in and listen to him.

hlniv wrote:So, I'm going to go drink at a bar in about an hour that's next to where Trump is having a hate speech rally. I registered for free tickets for me and a buddy and we're just going down there to see what the circus is like. Maybe we'll actually go in and listen to him.

Dont get stabbed or anything

Strat wrote:

hlniv wrote:So, I'm going to go drink at a bar in about an hour that's next to where Trump is having a hate speech rally. I registered for free tickets for me and a buddy and we're just going down there to see what the circus is like. Maybe we'll actually go in and listen to him.

Dont get stabbed or anything

Yeah, I get the concept behind people watching at events like this (going to a Ron Paul rally was quite entertaining), but a Trump rally could be like a Raiders home game.

spike wrote:

Strat wrote:#makedonalddrumpfagain

hahaha wow

This is all over my facebook today.

Here are two Ben Carson stories (one real, one from The Onion) that highlight how much I love him as a Don-Quixote-like figure:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/c ... candidates

http://www.theonion.com/graphic/ben-car ... fere-52427

I wonder how late we're going to have to stay up to get a sense of how today went? Here's the poll closing times (times are Eastern, not local):

Alabamapolls closing 8pm
Alaska Caucus (R)polls closing 1am
Arkansaspolls closing 8:30pm
Colorado Caucus (D)polls closing 9pm
Georgiapolls closing 7pm
Massachusettspolls closing 8pm
Minnesota Caucuspolls closing 9pm
Oklahomapolls closing 8pm
Tennesseepolls closing 8pm
Texaspolls closing 9pm
Vermontpolls closing 7pm
Virginiapolls closing 7pm

4/5 wrote:

turned2black wrote:Sure. Obviously the SEC Primary is bad for him.

But it's harder to "catch up" or ride any momentum when they are splitting delegates. If he could string a couple of surprise victories together that would have a hell of a lot more impact if it were "winner take all", both from a delegate and perception standpoint. As it is now, Clinton's "inevitability" has taken over.

I see it the other way. He'd have "lost" 3 of the 4 states already and the "inevitability" storyline that existed pre-#feelthebern surge would have never really gone away. I think it'd put him in such a big hole at this stage that it'd be even more over before the calendar turns more favorable.

With winner-take-all it'd be 132-24 right now (instead of 91-65). After tonight, giving him the 4 (edit: 5) states you said he has to win it would be: 703-302.

I get what you're saying, though. If we take it as a given that he'd be losing after Super Tuesday either way at least winner-take-all primaries would give him a (mostly false) glimmer of hope like Rubio and Cruz will convince themselves that they have, rather than have to acknowledge the fact that he could win 60/40 the rest of the way and barring superdelegates turning on Hillary en masse he still has no hope with the proportional primary.

If sanders can stick this out (besides the message/movement building elements of the campaign) electability (and his better GA support - for what the polling is worth) becomes the wedge for some of the super delegates. Though if trump locks this up AND Hilary increases her projected lead against him that becomes less important. But it wouldn't shock me to see trump close the gap once the GOP starts to give him some legitimacy

LOL. Didn't Bernie vote for the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act?

i hate when states are called with 1% of the vote

stip wrote:i hate when states are called with 1% of the vote

I mean, I can see them doing it when the exit polls and the pre-election polling lean so far in one direction. However, I think it does set up a distorted narrative--there's still a lot to hash out in those "called" states when it comes to proportional delegates.

Shhhhhhh! Hillary is speaking now.